NAB Challenge reveals worst fears about Essendon ahead of AFL season, Mark Robinson writes
THE worst fears about the Bombers have been confirmed across three pre-season games, and the question is: Could Essendon be as bad as Fitzroy in Fitzroy's final season?
Essendon
Don't miss out on the headlines from Essendon. Followed categories will be added to My News.
THE worst fears about Essendon have been confirmed across three pre-season games.
Two to be exact, for Essendon beat Carlton’s thirds in NAB One, which was full of emotion and energy, so what can be taken from that performance is anyone’s guess.
Their next two games were frightening.
They lost by 87 points to Geelong at Shepparton in NAB Two and the scores at half-time were 63-1.
On Sunday against the West Coast Eagles, the Bombers gave up 24 goals in their 105-point loss, the highlight being the final quarter where they kicked 2.3 to West Coast's 3.2.
The combined scores in those two losses was 269-77 or in goals, 41-10.
The question is: Could Essendon be as bad as Fitzroy in Fitzroy's final season.
In 1996, Fitzroy won one game and lost 21 and finished four and a half games clear on the bottom of the ladder with a percentage of just 49.5.
Fitzroy was a basket case by then, and although March predictions can make fools of many, it's reasonable to suggest that while the Bombers might not be such a basket case, they are certainly camped on the picnic rug.
In January, AFL boss Gillon McLachlan said the top-up players were needed to help make Essendon competitive.
McLachlan today should be worried because the top-ups won't make Essendon competitive.
In fact, he should be haunted by Essendon prospects this year, which will only undermine the competition.
It's already been said Essendon can beat Carlton this year.
OK, they are 50-50 games, but who else can they beat? Melbourne? The Demons won three NAB games and appear to have found modern-day balance between defence/offence.
St Kilda? They played two games and their veterans were rusty and importantly have a couple of years under Alan Richardson. Brisbane? Maybe they win at Etihad in Round 18, or maybe by then they are cooked.
The good news is across the NAB series, the Bombers were ranked 18th in just one category, albeit an important one.
Once the ball goes into the Essendon defensive 50m, a goal is scored every third entry.
It is an area which simply has to improve or they will suffer blowout after blowout.
Points against, they averaged 101.3, which placed them third behind St Kilda (112) and Collingwood (101.7).
Points for, they averaged 57.3, which had them only behind Carlton (45.3).
They averaged 41.7 inside 50s, which had them 17th behind Carlton, and once inside 50m, they kicked a goal 19 per cent of the time, which ranked them behind Carlton and Gold Coast.
Clearly, the Blues aren't going to be much better than Essendon, if at all. What they did show against Sydney on Friday night was a competitiveness, based around a number of measures, but largely a more modern and considered defensive slant.
Coach Brendon Bolton has work in front of him, but arguably the challenge ahead of Essendon coach John Worsfold is more demanding.
He inherited half a list, and most of the remainder wouldn't get a game if he had a full list, there are kids with promise but in their first or second seasons, and top-ups who weren't good enough to be on a list or veterans who had been given the heave-ho.
It is a dog's breakfast.
Against the Eagles, they looked a bedraggled group, seemingly not knowing where to run, how to defend together, how to attack together, and lacking the little understandings, the nuances of each other.
It often takes years to build that chemistry and Worsfold has had a month and a half to build what he can.
Playing against the premiership fancy, away, and in the heat, didn't help either.
Still, Worsfold should be worried about the long season ahead. And so should the AFL.
If the Bombers get to Fitzroy's level, it will effectively be back to eight games and a bye and that ain't good for anyone.
FITZROY’S FINAL SEASON
Watch: Academy Bomber’s dazzling VFL debut
One of Essendon’s next-generation Bombers is flying up the draft boards after a three-goal VFL debut. Watch his highlights here.
‘Absolute star’: Why Nate Caddy could haunt North Melbourne
What Nate Caddy did against the reigning premiers at the Gabba warrants a closer look at the 2023 national draft — and it shines the spotlight on North Melbourne, among some other clubs.