Gary Buckenara analyses Essendon’s list after the 2019 season
Essendon will have both Joe Daniher and Orazio Fantasia in its forward line next year despite it looking like both would be traded. But it makes little difference to their prospects of winning a premiership in 2020, list guru Gary Buckenara writes.
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Essendon does not have a genuine A-grade star and its premiership hopes for the near future are fading fast.
I know Bombers fans will hate me for saying that, but is there really a player at Essendon as good as Dustin Martin, Patrick Dangerfield or Marcus Bontempelli? The answer is no.
What the club does have is an abundance of highly talented players, including 14 players I rate in the B category — headed by the likes of Jake Stringer, Zach Merrett and Dylan Shiel — and seven C+ players (see full breakdown below).
It’s a good spread of talent, don’t get me wrong, and a spread most clubs would love but there is a serious need for a genuine superstar to take the group to the next level.
Yes, Essendon played finals this year but they got in under false pretences - their form wasn’t that great going in and then they bowed out very easily.
Their best football looks good but when things aren’t going their way they look second rate.
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There were some excuses or reasons for that given they didn’t have much luck with injury. Daniher’s issues have been well-documented, while Devon Smith missed most of the season, Tom Bellchambers played only 16 games, Dyson Heppell had problems with his foot, Cale Hooker’s start to the season was delayed and Marty Gleeson played only nine games, so hopefully they can get a bit more consistency out of those guys next year.
The Bombers hierarchy would be very happy to head into the 2020 season with both Joe Daniher and Orazio Fantasia in their forward line after for a few weeks believing they would be without both.
Essendon had every right to drive a hard bargain and stand their ground over the Daniher trade. List boss Adrian Dodoro said picks 5 and 9 from Sydney wouldn’t have been enough but for a guy who’s played 11 games in two years, that would have been overs. It’s a risk holding Daniher to his contract because it’s going to take a bit for him to rededicate himself to a club he had got his head around leaving. He has a long history with Essendon, so he wouldn’t have made this trade request on a whim. It would have taken weeks and months to a) think and b) come to terms with leaving. That also plays into the risk of keeping him around.
If Daniher can get his body right and contribute in 2020, Essendon could be the big winner if he and Fantasia can help them have a deep finals run. All eyes will be on him and the club for how they manage the situation. The hard work starts now.
I think Essendon fans will be happy to have both Daniher and Fantasia at the club because without them they couldn’t contend for a premiership.
LIST NEEDS
The Bombers are desperate for a ruckman and missing out on Paddy Ryder was massive — he would have been perfect. They added Andrew Phillips from Carlton but he's not exactly the experienced ruckman I had in mind when I said they need more ruck depth. They also need a big-bodied inside midfielder who can do a lot of the grunt work and feed the ball out to their runners.
LIST BREAKDOWN
A: Nil
B+: Andrew McGrath, Zach Merrett, Orazio Fantasia, Michael Hurley, Dyson Heppell, Dylan Shiel
B: Joe Daniher, Jake Stringer, Adam Saad, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
B-: Devon Smith, David Zaharakis, Cale Hooker, Conor McKenna
C+: Tom Bellchambers, Kyle Langford, Martin Gleeson, James Stewart, Jayden Laverde, Matt Guelfi, Shaun McKernan, Tom Cutler
C: Mason Redman, Mitch Brown, Patrick Ambrose, Michael Hartley, Andrew Phillips
C-: Nil
Developing*: Darcy Parish, Aaron Francis, Dylan Clarke, Sam Draper, Irving Mosquito
Developing: Jordan Ridley, Josh Begley, Kobe Mutch, Brayden Ham, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Noah Gown
Please note: Developing* refers to players aged 21 or under with the potential to become A or B-grade players in the future.
DRAFT STRATEGY
The Bombers won't enter the draft until pick No.31 and hold just two picks (their other is pick 33) inside the top 61, which is a concern. The club needs to bring in some top-end young talent because key players such as Hurley (30 in June), Hooker (31 this month), Bellchambers (30) and Zaharakis (30 in February) are all nearing the end of their careers.
They need to start planning for the future by bringing in some young key position players so they have enough time to develop in the VFL that when Hurley and Hooker do retire, they’re ready to go. Relying on the likes of McKernan (29), Hartley, Ambrose and Brown isn’t going to win this club a premiership. That worry will only be compounded if Daniher leaves via free agency next year.
The Bombers’ highest draft pick since 2016 was 38 (Irving Mosquito), so it would be wise to invest in this year’s draft. I’d be targeting positional needs — key forward, ruckman and a clever inside mid.
MORE FOOTY NEWS:
Gary Buckenara analyses Adelaide’s list after the 2019 season
Why Sydney shouldn’t worry about Essendon’s tough stance on Joe Daniher
St Kilda’s plan to reunite Ben and Max King means there is no room for Josh Bruce at the Saints
CRYSTAL BALL
I have been bullish about Essendon for the past two seasons, declaring they should be a top-four and premiership contender with the list they have, but I no longer think this list can win a premiership - even with staying. They’re a 6-10 side.