Essendon’s uncontested marks a crucial statistic ahead of clash with Western Bulldogs
FIELD MARSHAL: Essendon must reach its magic number to give itself the best chance of leaving the Western Bulldogs’ flag defence in pieces.
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THE magic number is 90.
That’s how many uncontested marks Essendon needs to give itself the best chance of leaving the Western Bulldogs’ flag defence in pieces.
It sounds peculiar, but it is real. In 2017, the Bombers are 7-2 when hitting the magic number. They are just two wins from eight matches when falling short.
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Sunday’s clash is a mini-final in July. Champion Data rates the Etihad Stadium game the most critical of the remaining 45 matches for determining the top eight.
The winner will stay about a 50-50 September chance, while the loser will be rated just a 15 per cent chance in the case of the Dogs or 19 per cent for the Bombers.
So, how can easy marks be such a big factor in a pivotal clash?
Well, when you stop the Bombers’ outside game you tend to stop the Bombers. When they smashed St Kilda by 61 points in Round 17, they recorded 119 uncontested marks.
When they beat West Coast by the same margin, they recorded 142 uncontested marks.
Both were at Etihad Stadium. In Round 3, on a wet day at the MCG, the Dons were restricted to only 46 uncontested marks and were upset by Carlton.
Against the Saints and Eagles, Mark Baguley (23 marks), James Kelly (23) Michael Hartley (22) and Brendon Goddard (20) were allowed to control the footy.
Against the Blues that quartet combined for 10 marks.
The Bombers’ bookends have stood tall all season. Cale Hooker and Joe Daniher have banged through 79 goals, while stingy defenders Hartley and Michael Hurley have played with precision.
It is Essendon’s midfield which has fluctuated. When the Dons’ engine room is allowed to chip sideways and move the ball around, they hit the magic number and punish teams on the scoreboard.
Last week, the Dons overran North Melbourne despite registering only 51 uncontested marks.
They bent the ‘90 rule’, but were outplayed for three quarters and given an almighty fright, because a team with two debutants didn’t allow them control.
This season 87 per cent of winners outscore their opponents on turnovers. Adelaide is the No.1 team at scoring from turnover, and Essendon ranks second (61.5 points).
The Dogs are ranked 13th, despite turnovers producing the same percentage of scores for both teams.
It shows that the Bombers’ offensive game is functioning more smoothly, better equipped to punish line-ups.
The Dogs seem to have finally settled on a preferred structure. Travis Cloke will probably replace Jack Redpath (suspended) and Fletcher Roberts will possibly replace Dale Morris (arm).
At initial glance it appeared as if this game would be decided by how the Dogs’ young backline, which includes composed kid Lewis Young, handled Hooker and Daniher.
Or whether Essendon shutdowns Norm Smith Medallist Jason Johannisen, who has polled four Brownlow Medal votes from the past two games against the Dons.
Or how the Dogs recover from Saturday’s trip to Cairns, where they hold a 4-0 record yet are 0-3 the following week.
But it is the uncontested marks which might rule, with Essendon’s turnover game firing with easy possession.
The Dogs are conceding an average of 84 this season. It is a higher number than most clubs. But below the magic number — 90.
THE MAGIC NUMBER
Essendon has won 9 of 11 matches when taking 90 or more uncontested marks
Essendon has won 2 of 8 matches when taking less than 90 uncontested marks
ESSENDON”S 2017 AVERAGES
Uncontested marks: 92.4
Uncontested marks in wins: 102.9
Uncontested marks in losses: 80.5
sam.landsberger@news.com.au
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