Is Nathan Buckley still the right man to lead Collingwood?
NATHAN Buckley is a better coach but his teams don’t win, and the question now is who is best equipped to lead the Magpies. JON RALPH looks at the tough decision facing Collingwood.
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AS the six board members that remain at Collingwood today endorsed 2009’s “Kirribilli agreement”, one thought might have eased that heavy burden.
They had just agreed upon a stunning handover that saw Mick Malthouse ceding power to Nathan Buckley within two seasons.
And yet as the football world digested the extraordinary pact, this was the cold confirm – they would never have to make a decision so hard or challenging again in the name of Collingwood.
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A month short of eight years on from that fateful day, here we are again.
Collingwood’s board faces a decision even more delicate than that succession plan, which many forget was signed with Malthouse’s blessing.
At year’s end they will have to decide whether to fire or rehire Nathan Buckley.
Buckley has never been a better coach, more in tune with his players and the demands of his list. He is finally reaching his peak.
As he has shown so effortlessly in recent media appearances, he is witty, eloquent, profound when he needs to be and a jokey smart-arse when the moment demands.
There is only one problem.
His football teams just don’t win very much.
The bare numbers stripped of context and valid excuses make for unpleasant reading.
Five wins from 13 games this year, seven of the past 20, 16 of the past 46 games since Round 13, 2015.
In all, five and a half seasons where the win-loss record has dropped every year without fail.
In the words of every Collingwood supporter bemoaned as they left the MCG after Port Adelaide “bullied” the Pies last week, “we just aren’t good enough”.
Former Hawthorn president Ian Dicker, the man who literally saved the Hawks, says judging a favourite son is the worst task in football.
In 2004 he moved on beloved former player and senior coach Peter Schwab.
For all of Buckley’s statements about making finals or being sacked, chief executive Gary Pert has been more circumspect.
Latterly keeping a lower public profile, Pert made it clear Buckley had not wanted for anything.
“He would say he is one of the best supported and resourced coaches in the competition,” he said.
Make of that what you want.
Scroll down to see JON RALPH’S list of coaching contenders
A less generous interpretation is that Buckley has been given the support he wants, the lieutenants such as Brenton Sanderson, the players such as Daniel Wells and Chris Mayne.
And if he can’t make finals with them, then the decision becomes cut and dried.
Back in the good old days where power clubs ruled the competition, this decision would have been so much easier.
Eddie McGuire just went and lured Mick Malthouse away from West Coast mid-contract.
Then he presented him in a fancy car along with, as Travis Cloke would say, plenty of smoke and shadow behind the mirrors.
But this time around, with Paul Roos saying he is unavailable and Alastair Clarkson adamant he isn’t leaving Hawthorn, the decision must be made on Buckley alone rather than weighing him up against an available coach.
AFL Coaches Association boss Mark Brayshaw said the Pies have treated Buckley with respect throughout a challenging year.
He is adamant even if Buckley eventually leaves Collingwood he is not done as a senior coach.
Pleasingly for Brayshaw, despite the media’s obsession, Collingwood’s board will not be rushed into a premature mid-season decision.
“I think the board is entitled to take the time.
“It’s a very important appointment and Collingwood are doing a very thorough and meticulous job and good on them,’’ he said.
“I think Geoff Walsh’s appointment has been really important for Nathan. He is that highly regarded person every coach needs and I am sure Nathan has enjoyed working with Geoff.”
The succession plan was orchestrated by Pert and McGuire, which shines extra attention on their positions if Buckley goes.
But presidents moving on with the coach is a rare event. Much of the commentary around Buckley’s position has been that they should keep him because no other option appeals.
But just last month seven of the AFL’s Level Four coaching group graduated – Melbourne’s Simon Goodwin joined John Barker (Carlton), Stuart Dew (Sydney), Robert Harvey (Collingwood), Adam Kingsley (St Kilda), Simon Lloyd (Geelong) and Matthew Nicks (Port Adelaide).
It is described by one of its mentors Neale Daniher as a finishing school that rounds out their coaching CV.
Barker and Dew just need a chance given exceptional resumes, while Brett Ratten, Michael Voss and Matthew Knights lead the contenders wanting a second crack.
Would Voss, ironically a sacked coach at the club that made him a legend, appeal to the Pies if Buckley goes?
He has the presence and marketing appeal, he is the midfield manager of in-form Port Adelaide and he clearly wants to step into the ring again.
Brayshaw says clubs should consider older candidates as well as those who have tried and failed before.
Brayshaw makes no comment about Buckley’s job safety but says in general the pipeline of coaches being readied for senior jobs is elite.
“You are infinitely better prepared (the second time). The experiences they have are priceless,” he said.
In a recent interviews Buckley has screamed of a coach who was finally working it out after six years in the job.
“I’m pretty aware of what I need to do to do my job well and then it is up to others to assess if that is what the club needs going forward,” Buckley told SEN on Friday night.
“There’s nothing in the charter that says Collingwood has to play finals every year because it’s a pretty tough competition.
“I reckon, personally, that we’ve shown much better signs this year than 12 months ago and that we need to frank that over the next eight or nine weeks.”
But lose today against Hawthorn and the scrutiny begins again. Buckley is an honourable man and a good bloke.
But in the past week, above all, we and Bachar Houli have found the good bloke factor in football counts for very little.
JON RALPH runs the rule over the coaching options
BRETT RATTEN (Hawthorn)
READY for another crack after five mostly excellent years at Carlton and with the knowledge of Hawthorn’s system and IP as an assistant under Alastair Clarkson.
“Never say never,’’ he said of another opportunity recently.
“I’ve gone through a lot in my last couple of years personally (Ratten’s son Cooper died in a car accident in 2015). It would have to be the right fit.”
JOHN BARKER (Carlton)
MADE a great fist of 14 games as caretaker at Carlton, ran a close second to Chris Fagan for the Lions gig, and is said to have a huge admirer in Mark Evans, who pushed him for the Lions job when at the AFL.
Said last year he was “in a place right now to seriously look at any senior coaching opportunities that presented”.
STUART DEW (Sydney)
SYDNEY’S senior assistant coach has been ready to go for years but with a wife and family in Sydney has preferred to stay with the Swans.
Just pipped by Phil Walsh as Adelaide coach and considered as Paul Roos’ successor as early as 2013, he is waiting for the right opportunity.
“What I have learnt in these scenarios is that they will have preferred candidates and with my experience and where I’m at, I’m very happy doing what I am doing,” he said last year.
PAUL ROOS (ex-Sydney and Melbourne)
HAS consistently said he will not entertain coaching offers despite close friendship with former team-mate and Pies CEO Gary Pert. Jetting out to Hawaii immediately after the season and while many think he will coach again, surely won’t be next year.
“On the back of what happened last time when I came back to coach Melbourne, people are going to speculate, but we will be away from October to December every year travelling,” he said recently.
“That precludes you from doing anything in footy on a full-time basis. That is as clear as I can be.”
MICHAEL VOSS (Port Adelaide)
THE Brisbane legend coached the Lions into their last finals campaign and is again hot given his role as the Power’s midfield manager.
Just the kind of strong figure with marketing appeal to accept the task of coaching a big club like Collingwood.
“I’m never one to shy away from a big task.
“I still think that (desire) obviously burns deep for me, and whether another opportunity exists there or not, that’ll play out,’’ he said last month.
ALASTAIR CLARKSON (Hawthorn)
IS contracted until 2019, has said he is staying the course and Hawthorn won’t let him go. But if Buckley went, Collingwood would have to ask.
The Pies don’t want the best available, they want the best. For the same reason, the Pies might ask Brad Scott about his intentions.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER
ADAM KINGSLEY (St Kilda)
HIGHLY rated but low profile, he is seen as a coach-in-waiting but lacks the profile the Pies might desire.
SCOTT BURNS, BRENTON SANDERSON and ROBERT HARVEY (Collingwood)
ALL three are assistants at Collingwood but presumably if the Pies moved on Buckley they would look outside the club for a replacement.
MATTHEW KNIGHTS (Geelong)
SINCE his sacking by Essendon has enhanced his reputation at Geelong where the stars like Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood love him.
Still hurt perception-wise by his sacking and attack-only emphasis, but would be better second time around.
SIMON LLOYD (Geelong)
THE Cats’ director of coaching won rave reviews in his time at Fremantle and is a sleeper for senior roles. Was the Pies’ head of development and psychologist 2005-2009.
HOW THE MAGPIES BOARD WILL RATE NATHAN BUCKLEY
THE PLAYERS
They are a big tick for Buckley, and you couldn’t always say that.
Scott Pendlebury delivered the latest ringing endorsement this week, saying sacking him would cut short the club’s momentum when on the verge of something special.
Ruckman Brodie Grundy, about to sign a new deal this year, will do so hoping Buckley remains in charge.
Players once felt Buckley was too footy-focused, with a long line of departing players at odds with him.
But there is no doubt he has the players after addressing his weaknesses and delegating more.
THE GAME PLAN
What is Nathan Buckley’s game plan?
Game plans will always evolve over seasons but his has changed more than most.
Loosely, it is frenzied attack on the ball, quick ball movement, a multi-faceted forward line.
But he does not have a brand that stands out like Clarkson’s movement by foot or Beveridge’s midfield blitzkrieg.
Last year the back six played zone defence, then a more successful one on one.
This year the Pies ball movement was turgid as they attempted to defend first before a rapid and successful overhaul.
His positional changes - Jeremy Howe back, Taylor Adams to half forward - have been more successful than the actual methodology.
THE LIST BUILD
Buckley’s detractors will wonder how much time a coach is given but it ignores the early mandate he was given to weed out the ratbags.
It cost the club two seasons (the only finals-bound ones) but since then he can’t complain he hasn’t secured the players he wanted.
Those inclusions have included Adam Treloar, Jeremy Howe, Taylor Adams, Jesse White, Daniel Wells, James Aish, Travis Varcoe, Levi Greenwood, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Chris Mayne.
It is hard to suggest this club is slowly building through the draft when so much has been given for players in their prime.
Tony Shaw says the issue is the kind of player, adamant the Pies should have gone after a star key forward rather than spend cash on Wells and Mayne.
WINS
Buckley has coached 127 games for 66 wins and 61 losses in a career of ever-diminishing returns.
At a time when he wants to be building his side has won seven of its past 20 games.
The trend is worrying - 17 wins in 2012, then 14, 11, 10, 9 and this year’s five from 13 games.
If Collingwood is in the business of winning premierships, the Pies aren’t very close to a flag.
The million dollar question is whether someone else is better equipped to get them there faster.
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