Gary Buckenara analyses Collingwood’s list after the 2020 season

The Adam Treloar trade mess was a terrible look for Collingwood and a lesson to all list managers. Gary Buckenara on how the Pies got into this mess and what their list is capable of now.

Gary Buckenara analyses Collingwood's list after the 2020 season.

Collingwood’s ability to challenge for the premiership next year hinges on finally addressing the problem that has plagued them for years – finding a genuine key forward.

The Magpies haven’t been good enough to win the flag for the same reason every year: Poor forward structure with no consistent goalscoring options and bad luck with injuries.

Mason Cox has been tried and tried as the key target but after another inconsistent season I’m not convinced he’ll ever be the player Collingwood needs him to be. Brody Mihocek is a good player but at 192cm he’s undersized as a key forward and would benefit from having a reliable target next to him because he’d get the second or third defender. Darcy Cameron was tried but lacks the mobility to be a full-time forward.

Collingwood had to cope with a wretched run with injuries this year, which affected results, but what’s new? Time to conduct another review to find out why. It’s not bad luck when it happens every year.

But credit where it’s due. The Magpies have built a list with great depth and the coaching and development staff have done a brilliant job to prepare young players to step up and perform at AFL level when required. Josh Daicos, John Noble, Isaac Quaynor, Tyler Brown, Jack Madgen, Trey Ruscoe and Atu Bosenavulagi all played critical roles at various stages this year. They have an amazing ability to just get the job done.

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Jordan De Goey is set to re-sign with Collingwood. Picture: Michael Klein

Josh Daicos had a breakout season. Picture: Michael Klein

That ties into what I admire most about this Collingwood team – their will to win. That’s what helped them stun West Coast in the elimination final because it’s a value instilled in every player. It starts at the top with Nathan Buckley and Scott Pendlebury and clearly travels down to the last player on the list.

This trait is very hard to manufacture within team sport, especially where individual rewards are very high, so I have a lot of admiration for this group. The semi-final loss to Geelong was an aberration – it was an out-of-character performance because effort is what Collingwood always brings.

LIST NEEDS

The list is reasonably well balanced, but the Magpies are crying out for a mobile tall forward and a full forward. I don’t think Cox will ever be the answer.

The list needs a change in luck with injuries to get the best 22 on the park consistently as that team is a premiership contender, while the development of players like Daicos, Quaynor, Noble, Madgen, Cameron, Bosenavulagi and Trent Bianco will be important.

Mason Cox had an up and down season. Picture: Getty

TRADE TARGETS

I hear Buckley isn’t interested in one-dimensional forwards, which is why Collingwood didn’t look at Ben Brown or Jesse Hogan. They’re interested in Jack Gunston, who’d be an ideal get as a mobile tall forward. He just won Hawthorn’s best and fairest, so he’ll be hard to get but can they convince him to chase another premiership, like Isaac Smith is doing at Geelong? Try and get him to commit because, despite Hawthorn declaring they won’t trade him, it will force their hand. History shows clubs do the deal if a player wants to leave. He’s contracted so Collingwood will need to offer their first-round pick as a minimum.

Carlton’s Levi Casboult would be a handy addition as a forward-ruck if Cox is traded. He can split packs and taking contested marks is his biggest strength. I’m sure Jordan De Goey, Jamie Elliott, Josh Thomas and Jaidyn Stephenson would enjoy being at his feet.

Jack Gunston would be a perfect fit at Collingwood. Picture: Getty

UNTOUCHABLES

Pendlebury, De Goey, Daicos, Mihocek, Noble, Quaynor, Taylor Adams, Jack Crisp, Brayden Maynard, Brodie Grundy, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Jeremy Howe, Darcy Moore, Steele Sidebottom, Jordan Roughead, Adam Treloar and Jaidyn Stephenson*.

*If a trade too good to refuse was on the table for Stephenson I’d consider moving him after an underwhelming season. He’s contracted and given his potential, a rival would need to pay a high price. If a club like North Melbourne offered a top-10 pick then I’d jump at it. There are some very good mobile key forwards in this draft who are expected to go top 10 and Collingwood desperately need one.

If Collingwood is offered a top-10 pick for Jaidyn Stephenson, they should trade him according to Gary Buckenara. Picture: Getty

TRADE BAIT

The Magpies want Adam Treloar’s contract off the books but there must be more to it. He’s a good midfielder but is he a great one? He’s not an A-grader because he’s not an elite ball user, he misses too many targets. That could be part of the reason why Collingwood is willing to trade him. If reports are true and his contract is worth $900,000 over the next five years, that’s crazy. He’s a $500,000-$600,000 player. The situation is a mess and a terrible look.

Through no fault of his own, Treloar has a back-ended contract after reportedly helping the club with their TPP a few years back. This is very poor list management and a good example of how back-ending contract can come back to bit you in the bum very quickly, especially if a player isn’t living up to expectations. Unless Collingwood agree to pay a large portion of his salary – at least 50 per cent – over the remaining years, then they’ll be stuck with his huge contract. I think they assumed Treloar would follow his partner to Queensland but they assumed wrong. Big mistake.

North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs (if Josh Dunkley leaves), Hawthorn, Melbourne, St Kilda and Gold Coast would all be a good fit for Treloar but not at $900,000. He’s worth pick 15-25 but if Collingwood pays some of his contract over the life of the deal, they could get a pick from 10-14.

Adam Treloar’s is not an A-grade player and paying him $900,000 per season is “crazy”, Buckenara says. Picture: Getty

Cox is maligned but he would have suitors. Clubs including Sydney, Essendon, GWS, Adelaide and Gold Coast might be interested as they look for a forward/ruckman, so there’d be enough demand to fetch a decent trade. Could be worth a second-round pick.

Phillips has reportedly been told the club is willing to trade him. He’s a hard runner who plays his best footy on the wing but seems to have been overtaken by Daicos. He’s worth a second or early third-round pick.

RATING THE LIST

A-grade: Adams, De Goey, Grundy, Moore, Pendlebury, Sidebottom

B: Crisp, Elliott, Hoskin-Elliott, Howe, Maynard, Mayne, Mihocek, Roughead, Thomas, Treloar

C: Beams (due to illness/likely to retire) C. Brown, Cameron, Cox, Greenwood, Langdon, Madgen, Noble, Phillips, Sier, Wills, Wilson

Developing (with A-B grade potential): Daicos, Quaynor, Stephenson

Developing: Appleby, Bianco, Bosenavulagi, T. Brown, Keane, Kelly, Lynch, Murphy, Rantall, Ruscoe, Tohill

What the ratings mean:

A-grade: Elite player on any AFL list

B: Top 10-18 player on most lists

C: An 18-30 player on a list

Developing: Aged 21 or under

CRYSTAL BALL

Collingwood has a very good defensive game plan, which has helped them win games despite their forward line limitations and inability to kick big scores. Given the amount of injuries they’ve had over the past 3-4 years to key players for long periods, including Treloar, Howe and forgotten defender Tom Langdon, they’ve done a brilliant job to still play and win finals and get so close to winning the premiership in 2018. With luck on that front the Magpies will be a flag contender in 2021 but they must fix the forward line or they’ll fall short, again.

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