Carlton’s dirty dozen: Jon Ralph analyses 12 key reasons the battling Blues are 1-6 after seven rounds
Carlton gave up pick 28 for Matt Kennedy and two picks for Will Setterfield but Champion Data numbers reveal just how far away the pair are from delivering on that investment. JON RALPH names 12 reasons the Blues are battling.
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Carlton fans are used to losing games because of a dramatic deficit in talent.
The dark old days of Denis Pagan’s post-penalty years and even this era’s rebuild have meant Blues fans have endured many different types of losses.
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Sunday’s loss to North Melbourne was as painful as any because Blues fans know they have enough talent on their list.
When you can lead Hawthorn by six goals with ball movement like a Malcolm-Blight coached Geelong side in the mid-90s, the talent is there.
This year Patrick Cripps is in the elite class and Zac Fisher, Jacob Weitering, Sam Walsh, Liam Jones, Matthew Kreuzer and Lachie Plowman are in the above average class.
So why is this list still 1-6 despite all the hard-won games?
Here are the dirty dozen reasons why Carlton is still taking one step forward then a giant leap back.
1. Carlton’s forward line pressure is non-existent.
The Blues have often played three or four forwards over 190cm and as a result the ball rebounds out at speed.
Harry McKay, Levi Casboult and Charlie Curnow are all in the bottom 10 per cent of key forwards for pressure, with Mitch McGovern also below average.
The above average pressure players are Michael Gibbons and David Cuningham, with the Blues forced to play Cam Poulson for that role.
Unfortunately he’s not even an elite pressure player and offers very little offensively.
2. Lochie O’Brien is only 18 games into his career but being asked to play a significant role on the wing.
It’s not working. The No.10 pick of the 2017 national draft is the worst of 35 regular wingmen in the competition.
He has the worst rating for ball-winning and pressure, meaning he isn’t good on any side of the ball. He is also in the bottom 10 per cent for contested possessions and metres gained.
In a modern game where modern wingmen are critical as covering players running back and offensive players with space to burn, it’s a real issue.
3. Carlton rarely wins the ball back from its opponent.
It is rated 16th for tackle differential and officially has poor pressure. And it wins only 35 points from intercepts, about half what most teams do.
As a result it has to rely on kicking goals from stoppages and is 16th for time in its forward half and 17th for forward half differential. It’s not sustainable when most teams win the ball back inside their own half.
4. The recruits haven’t had the instant impact the Blues hoped.
Mitch McGovern was running into form when he was injured with 10 goals in six games, but Will Setterfield’s impact was negligible before he was suspended.
The Blues gave up a 2018 third-round pick and their 2019 second-rounder for him but Champion Data rates him the worst mid-forward in the league of the 28 players to play four games.
On its official player ratings he is on 3.8 points, with the next worst 6.6 points — almost twice as bad as the next worst player.
5. Caleb Marchbank is just going.
He is an elite aerobic athlete but in the bottom 10 per cent of defenders, averaging just 49 ranking points in his five games.
At his best he is an interceptor who kicks it well, but he is averaging just 3.4 intercept possessions a game and kicking the ball at 61 per cent.
6. Paddy Dow hasn’t kicked above 50 per cent efficiency for the past four games.
He is now only the third-worst kick in the AFL — ahead of Andrew Brayshaw and Jack Viney — but is 17 per cent below the AFL average for kick rating.
Against North Melbourne he kicked the ball at 17 per cent efficiency, after 42 per cent, 20 per cent and 28 per cent in the previous three games. Like O’Brien he is being asked to play a significant midfield role in his second year but while he is averaging 18 possessions he just can’t hit a target.
7. Charlie Curnow.
After only one contested mark in his first three games he at least took two against North Melbourne as he amassed 16 possessions. But a player said to be the star of this generation has only two goals for the year and is one of the worst key forwards in the league for marks inside 50. For all his aerobic gifts he rarely turns his opponent around and wins the ball running back towards goal.
8. Carlton gave up pick 28 for Matthew Kennedy at the end of 2017.
He played only 12 games last year with a bad ankle but his 29-possession, seven-clearance Round 18 performance against Hawthorn showed what he was capable of.
This year after some pre-season niggles including a knock to the shoulder he can’t get out of the VFL.
His first two games there were excellent — 108 and 121 ranking points- before a quieter game last week. The Blues recruited a tough contested player with a high pick but can’t get the best out of him yet.
9. Levi Casboult’s inconsistency.
Two weeks ago he kicked three goals in a star turn against the Western Bulldogs. Yesterday playing ruck and forward he kicked three behinds with the kind of shanks at goal that once were a feature of his game.
10. The Blues have been crying out for a dangerous small forward since Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett left.
Alex Fasolo played two games in the AFL for rankings point totals of 26 and 33 and has kicked only three goals in four VFL games since.
11. Matthew Kreuzer makes Carlton a five-goal better side.
In his two games this year he has averaged seven clearances, 27.5 hit-outs and 13.5 possessions. But he has only played 14 games since the start of last year with heart, knee and groin issues. The Blues can’t rely on him to be out there on a weekly basis.
12. Where was the leadership against North Melbourne?
With Patrick Cripps taken out of the game by Jack Ziebell in the first term, who blocked for him or sacrificed for him? Or decided to take up the slack by putting their body on the line in his absence. And while Kreuzer and Kade Simpson were absent yesterday, who was organising the players or giving them a Chad-Wingard-style dressing down when things were going pear-shaped on-field.
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