Mick McGuane takes an in-depth look at the semi-final between Brisbane Lions and GWS Giants

Brisbane star Lachie Neale can’t be left alone and Brisbane should drop a key off-season recruit after a disappointing first final. Plus, who goes to Charlie Cameron? Mick McGuane looks at the key factors in the do-or-die semi-final.

Charlie Cameron of the Brisbane Lions.

This shapes as a battle of the beasts.

The Lions and Giants rank first and second respectively for scoring from stoppages and there is little doubt this game will be won and lost through the midfield.

The pleasing thing for the Giants on the weekend was their turnover game — which has traditionally been a weakness — was exceptional against the Western Bulldogs. Meanwhile, the Lions’ showed their ability to win clearances and contested ball against Richmond, particularly early, and created ample scoring opportunities. They just need to convert them.

CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE SACKED PODCAST

BRISBANE LIONS

THE KEY

Conversion. It sounds obvious, but they can’t be as wasteful as they were in front of goal against Richmond on Saturday night. Either through their own technique or the failure to use better options, they squandered far too many opportunities to hit the scoreboard. At quarter-time the Lions led the inside-50 count 23-6 but had just a 12-point lead after kicking 4.6. You can’t do that and expect to win finals.

Stream every match of the 2019 Toyota AFL Finals Series before the Grand Final Live & On-Demand on KAYO SPORTS. Get your 14 day free trial and start streaming instantly >

Dan McStay had a quiet night against the Tigers. Picture: Getty Images

THE CHALLENGE

The Lions have got to get their key forwards into the game against a very good intercept team in the Giants. Eric Hipwood, Daniel McStay and Oscar McInerney all pose threats in the air but have combined for only three goals from their past three games. Against Richmond on Saturday night, the trio combined for just 20 disposals and 10 marks. That’s not nearly enough.

THE THEME

It’s linked to the Lions’ challenge. Hipwood, McStay and McInerney need to lift. If they can’t mark it, they need to bring the ball to ground for the likes of Allen Christiensen, Cam Rayner and Charlie Cameron. If not, the Giants are the second-best intercept marking team in the competition and will rebound it out of there in no time.

IF I WAS BRISBANE …

If Mitch Robinson (hamstring) is ruled out it leaves a big hole on one wing. I’d be looking at Ryan Bastinac as my first-choice replacement, despite him not having played an AFL game since Round 3. If not Bastinac, maybe Tom Cutler, although he lacks some competitiveness at times. I’d also drop Marcus Adams for Ryan Lester, who did a good job in defence on Harry Himmelberg in Round 16. That just leaves Harris Andrews and Darcy Gardiner to look after Jeremy Cameron and Jeremy Finalyson.

MORE FOOTY:

McGuane: How Eagles can end Cats’ season

Mark Robinson: Richmond and Dustin Martin were frightening in win over Brisbane

A Richmond-Collingwood grand final shapes as a promoter’s dream and the hottest ticket in town

John Worsfold an ‘outsider’ at Bombers and may be a sitting duck, writes Mick Malthouse

GWS GIANTS

THE KEY

Keep the forward pressure up. Everyone in the football industry has been asking where it is, and the Giants looked a different team with the forward pressure they applied against the Western Bulldogs. They had nine forward-50 tackles to five. That’s why they conceded only 37 inside-50s against a team that was going into this finals series on top of their game offensively. Maintain the rage.

THE CHALLENGE

Who can handle Charlie Cameron? He kicked two goals in Round 16, but he looked dangerous and lively. When he plays deep, Heath Shaw might take him. But would the Giants like that match-up? Because if the ball goes in quickly and goes to ground, Shaw will be beaten for pace. Zac Williams has the pace, but GWS would rather not have him deep in defence.

THE THEME

Avoid Harris Andrews. There was a bit of selflessness from Richmond’s Tom Lynch on Saturday night, taking Andrews — one of the league’s best spoilers — away from the contest when he could. If Andrews goes to Jeremy Finalyson, the Giant might have to do the same to help Jeremy Cameron get off the leash against Darcy Gardiner.

Matt de Boer did a superb job on Bulldog star Marcus Bontempelli, keeping him to just 13 disposals. Picture: Phil Hillyard

IF I WAS GWS ….

You’ve got to shut down Lachie Neale and Hugh McCluggage. I would be sending Matt de Boer to do the job on Neale to limit his impact around the stoppages and ability to win clean first possession. We know he’s going to win the footy, but you can limit the impact. Without Mitch Robinson on one wing, McCluggage on the other wing becomes an important factor for the Lions. I’d send Sam Reid to him after he successfully shut out Western Bulldogs wingman Lachie Hunter in the same role on the weekend.

MY PREDICTION: Brisbane by 7 points

MATCH ODDS

Brisbane $1.65, GWS $2.25

FLAG ODDS

Brisbane $11, GWS $13

INJURIES

LIONS

Mitch Robinson (hamstring) TBC

Tom Joyce (shin) test

GIANTS

Stephen Coniglio (knee) test

Zac Langdon (ankle) test

Brett Deledio (calf) retired

Matt Flynn (knee) season

Jonathon Patton (knee) season

Callan Ward (knee) season