Malcolm Blight: Adelaide Crows have edge for Showdown 44 — and strong hold on top-four finish
SHOWDOWN 44 will set up the Adelaide Crows for a top-four finish — and leave Port Adelaide to fight its way to September’s finals, says Malcolm Blight.
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SHOWDOWN tip? Crows.
Adelaide will advance to a powerful 6-2 win-loss count — and establish itself as a certain top-four finisher for the second consecutive AFL season.
And Port Adelaide? At 4-4 — and outside the top eight — will have to deal with not living up to all that optimism generated in October when the Power made some massive investments in the AFL player market.
What an interesting scene for the SA-based AFL teams. Just two months ago, as Port Adelaide beat the Crows in a summer Showdown at Alberton with an extraordinary second half, there was a fair debate on which club would rank higher in the top four.
Being 50-50 — as Port Adelaide would be by losing the Showdown — is not a disastrous position. But it would require the Power to find the one critical quality that remains elusive for Ken Hinkley’s team — consistency.
This is the 21st year of the Showdown — the match that is watched by AFL fans across the nation as the best non-Victorian derby on the football calendar. In 1997, when it all began with the new boys at Port Adelaide upsetting the Crows, Adelaide was 1-3 after Showdown I and 4-4 at the end of round 8 ... and working its way through a five-game winning run to set up a remarkable season.
So, as Richmond learned last season when it was smashed externally for losing four consecutive games from rounds 6-9 (three in a row by less than a goal), the Power should not feel a season is lost in the first half of the season.
But there will need to be a special month from Hinkley’s group if all the great hope created in the off-season is to amount to something meaningful at Alberton.
History — the greatest guide in this game — will say the race to the top eight has taken significant shape by the end of round 7, the one-third mark in the home-and-away season. There usually is one, perhaps two, teams from the bottom 10 that can rise to join in the September party. Three? That would take a “blue moon” event, but this might be that sort of season.
Port Adelaide is in that would-be mix with Collingwood and Melbourne — all at 4-3, but outside the top eight on a percentage fallout to the other 4-3 teams, Geelong, North Melbourne and Sydney.
The next month — with the run to the mid-season bye — will be very telling. The competition is down from 18 to 11. And some of the 11 are already over the line by what they have shown in the first seven weeks.
AFL premier RICHMOND is not falling away. To have Fremantle looking second rate on Sunday — while playing without captain Trent Cotchin, losing Dion Prestia in the second half and more stress on its limited ruck stocks — highlights why the Tigers are top of the ladder.
And there is another great “rookie” story with Kane Lambert (pick No. 46 in the 2015 rookie draft after a long journey through the VFL). He was third in Richmond’s club champion count last season, proving again that some genuine talent takes time to mature.
WEST COAST. Did anyone outside Perth truly believe the Eagles would be this good? Does the return of ruckman Nic Naitanui make that much of a difference? Or is it the new responsibility on midfielders Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff and Chris Masten — with West Coast being “their footy club” now — more significant?
ADELAIDE. Rory Laird, another rookie draftee, still amazes me. Bryce Gibbs, who delivers consistency to repeatedly score between 6/10 and 8/10, has been a terrific addition to the Crows midfield.
But just as important — amid a heavy injury count — is the confirmation that Adelaide does have depth on its list as highlighted by the work of Tom Doedee, Myles Poholke, Jordan Gallucci and Wayne Milera.
The Crows are about to string together a significant sequence of wins and lock themselves in the top four.
HAWTHORN is a surprise. But when the Hawks can find a gem such as James Sicily to carry on the Hawthorn ways — that grunt that counts — established by Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis, the good times will keep rolling on for Alastair Clarkson.
GWS. The Giants have had too many injuries to hold up consistent performances. Their run to the mid-season bye — West Coast, North Melbourne, Essendon, Adelaide and Gold Coast — will be fascinating.
GEELONG. The Cats play Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton and Gold Coast in the next month. They should have that string of five consecutive wins that keeps them in the top eight. And the rise of 24-year-old South Fremantle recruit Tim Kelly is another reminder of how not all future stars are found at 18 in the AFL national draft.
NORTH MELBOURNE. With West Coast, the Kangaroos are the surprise packet of the season — and a credit to the faith coach Brad Scott and the club have in each other. They also have the leader for the Coleman Medal as the AFL’s leading goalkicker, Ben Brown.
SYDNEY. Another strange start by the Swans, following up their 0-6 opening from last season with the bizarre note of having lost three home games at the SCG to Adelaide, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne.
Is this the end of Swans’ era ... or are the pros from Sydney just building to another big finish?
Port Adelaide’s job of clawing one of these eight teams out of September’s finals will be challenging. But it just needs a solid run, even after losing a Showdown ... as some of us know all too well.
Originally published as Malcolm Blight: Adelaide Crows have edge for Showdown 44 — and strong hold on top-four finish
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