Sydney’s hopes of breaking MCG hoodoo against Hawthorn will come down to ground warfare, writes David King
THE Sydney Swans have improved this season and have been regenerated by youth, but they face their Kryptonite — the Hawks, winners of six of their past eight encounters.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
THE Sydney Swans have improved significantly since last season’s campaign was derailed by injury and illness.
They have been regenerated by youth, but are still typified by their leaders’ brutality at ground level.
They want to drag games into the trenches but on Friday night they face their Kryptonite — the Hawks, winners of six of their past eight encounters.
The Swans have difficulty interrupting the Hawks’ ball movement when they utilise their kicking skills and maximise gut runners like Isaac Smith and Brad Hill, while controlling the tempo of the game through uncontested marking.
This methodical ball movement commits the Swans to defend every kick and ultimately it leaves Ted Richards or Heath Grundy isolated one-on-one in their defensive end.
It is a test they’ve passed for seasons on end, but recently some vulnerability has appeared.
Richards loses only 14 per cent of his one-on-one contests but Grundy is succumbing almost 40 per cent of the time so far this season, alarmingly higher than the AFL average of closer to 30 per cent.
Grundy lost only 18 per cent of one-on-one contests last season — outstanding — but last week’s poor performance against Richmond’s Ben Griffiths won’t have gone unnoticed by Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson.
Sydney has five of the AFL’s top 11 ground ball winners post stoppage, when the game is in general play.
Dan Hannebery, Keiran Jack, Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy and Isaac Heeney are bulldozers.
They love the physical contests and they rarely fumble once they swoop on the ball.
They’re at their best when the game is in dispute but it won’t be as often as usual, not versus the Hawks.
The table below highlights the difficulty Sydney has had, particularly at the MCG, trying to disrupt the Hawks.
Sydney’s contested possession toughness rates behind only the Western Bulldogs and Greater Western Sydney, averaging +12 per game.
It’s a significant advantage over the Hawks, who are rated 15th, having lost six of eight head-to-head contested battles, averaging 12 fewer than their opposition.
The Swans simply cannot allow the ball to exit high traffic areas without winning possession.
If the ball is at ground level and in dispute and the game is high in stoppages, they will prove too strong.
If the Hawks can compete in the contest and make it a kick-mark exhibition they will win comfortably as the Swans midfield toughness becomes stifled by long periods of chasing tail.
The Swans are very much a go-forward team in possession and kick the ball longer than all teams except Melbourne and Port Adelaide.
Hawthorn has forced the fewest turnovers in its defensive half, which again highlights a small opportunity for the Swans’ contested ball winners in their forward half.
Lance Franklin is on the end of the lion’s share of the Swans’ forward forays, which some say is unhealthy, but how can his output be questioned?
After eight rounds Franklin has 34 goals, his most productive first two months of a season since 2008, when he won the Coleman Medal with 113 goals for Hawthorn.
That year “Buddy” won more than 70 per cent of his possessions in the forward 50m arc. This year it’s closer to 50 per cent, which allows for other forwards to have more opportunities.
The best player in the competition is craving supply and his form is a sizeable factor in the Swans’ offensive improvement from last season’s average of 88 points to 110 this year — almost four goals.
Sydney has introduced a league-high five debutants this season and the class of Callum Mills and George Hewett became evident almost immediately.
It has been a settled line-up, using 28 players so far, only one more than the AFL’s healthiest clubs including Geelong, Adelaide and the West Coast.
The Swans look even healthier now with the inclusion of Josh Kennedy and they are in form despite last weekend’s after-the-siren loss to the Tigers.
An indication of their premiership hopes will be how they compete with the competition’s best — the Hawks, who know how to dismantle John Longmire’s mechanics.
The ground level assault by the Swans’ midfield warriors must come to fore if they are to win. Ground ’em and pound ’em.
HAWKS v SWANS at the MCG
2015 Rd8: Sydney by 4 points (Swans +4 uncontested possessions)
2014 GF: Hawthorn by 63 points (Hawks +137)
2014 Rd18: Hawthorn by 10 points (Hawks +48)
2013 QF: Hawthorn by 54 points (Hawks +99)
2013 R7: Hawthorn by 37 point (Hawks +55)
Hall’s long-distance Gallen plan
Barry Hall has revealed how he plans to beat his shorter but more experienced opponent in their much-anticipated bout.
Hall gets kick from little masters
Andrew Moloney is the hot favourite to become Australia’s only current world boxing champion when he battles Brooklyn’s Elton Dharry on the same night that his mate Barry Hall fights Paul Gallen.