Sydney’s history of uncovering draft gems suggests it should cash in on Carlton target Tom Papley
Sydney isn’t hypocritical for wanting to hold onto Tom Papley and lure Joe Daniher, writes Jon Ralph. But the Swans would be well advised to seriously consider Carlton’s offer if pick nine is on the table.
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Sydney are the past masters of securing goalkicking stars who want out of footy’s bubble.
Now they are holding on to dear life to Bunyip’s Tom Papley when he wants back into it.
After four increasingly excellent seasons in Sydney he is desperate to get back to a girlfriend who lives in Melbourne and a family steeped in footy culture in the same Gippsland town where Shane Mumford grew up.
Sydney aren’t hypocritical for luring Joe Daniher and attempting to hold onto Tom Papley.
It’s a double standard, maybe, but they are just trying to improve their list.
But here’s why this trade shapes as a win-win for both Carlton and Sydney if the Blues eventually hand over pick nine for a player formerly secured as a Swans rookie.
Pick nine is usually overs for a small forward who plays a niche role, but Carlton couldn’t be more desperate for exactly that type of player.
Papley is the ultimate triple threat — he kicks goals, he racks up direct score assists, he is constantly involved in score involvements.
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He can burst from a stoppage into space to nail shots on the run, slide into space to find a hole to mark inside 50 or use his running power to get over the back for the easiest of goals.
Champion Data statistics show he was 15th in the competition for goals (37), fifth for goals by small forwards (behind Charlie Cameron, Jordan De Goey, Eddie Betts and Gary Ablett), seventh in his position for score assists and eighth for score involvements.
Carlton is prepared to pay overs given it has no small forwards and was prepared to play Michael Gibbons, Matthew Kennedy, Josh Deluca, Jack Silvagni, Ed Curnow and Darcy Lang.
So why does Sydney want a simple draft pick when picks around that range are seen to be such a crapshoot?
Because the recent history shows they can be a goldmine for smart recruiters.
Since the 2014 national draft alone consider Darcy Moore (pick 9), Harry McKay (pick 10), Wayne Milera (pick 11), Charlie Curnow (pick 12), Eric Hipwood (pick 14), Aaron Naughton (pick 9).
Sydney reaped Ollie Florent with pick 11 in the 2016 national draft and Nick Blakey last year with pick 10.
Blakey might be one of the steals of that draft given 19 goals as a 195cm tall forward with exceptional upside.
Sydney can hold Papley given a games-based clause has now been triggered on a deal that now runs to 2023.
But where Geelong maximised Tim Kelly’s worth by holding him, will Sydney ever get a better deal for Papley than pick nine?
Especially when Carlton could solve their forward needs with Jack Martin and Eddie Betts next year and he might go elsewhere to get home for a lesser pick.