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SuperFooty AFL Brownlow Medal Predictor 2024: See the contenders with just eight rounds to go

The pointy end of the Brownlow count looks set to have an asterisk next to Isaac Heeney’s name, but who does that throw into contention? See the FULL TOP 20 PREDICTED LEADERBOARD.

Tarquin Oakley and Max Stainkamph
6 min read
July 9, 2024 - 5:59AM
News Sport Network
AFL Brownlow Predictor
AFL Brownlow Predictor

The Brownlow Medal count has been blown wide-open, with season-long favourite Isaac Heeney handed a week-long suspension which would leave him ineligible for the AFL’s greatest individual award.

The Swans will challenge the ban at the tribunal on Tuesday night, but here’s how his ban could clear a spot on the podium for another contender.

After 16 rounds, SuperFooty’s Brownlow predictor had Heeney on second place, two votes behind Collingwood superstar Nick Daicos and one ahead of Carlton’s Patrick Cripps.

Isaac Heeney in hot water for off-the-ball incident

Sydney has been the dominant force all season, with star midfielders Chad Warner, Errol Gulden and Isaac Heeney being popular favourites. Heeney’s impact on games and consistent displays have been a huge reason for Sydney’s success, averaging 25.9 disposals, 6.5 clearances and 1.4 goals a game.

But Nick Daicos is not just replicating his 2023 season — he continues to take his game to new levels and is leading our predicted count, which was conducted prior to Round 17’s games last weekend.

Nick Daicos after kicking a miraculous goal against Gold Coast. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images.
Nick Daicos after kicking a miraculous goal against Gold Coast. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images.

Caleb Serong is next placed on our predictor, but Zach Merrett may have leapfrogged him after a quiet game for the Fremantle midfielder and a likely three-vote performance from the Bombers’ skipper on Friday night against Collingwood.

ADELAIDE

In what has been a poor season for Adelaide, skipper Jordan Dawson (15 votes) has led from the front at the Crows, averaging 24.8 disposals. Despite a season of injury interruptions, Izak Rankine (10 votes) has been impressive and damaging in games since being moved to the midfield, averaging 19.3 disposals and two goals per game.

BRISBANE

After an average start to the season, the Lions are back on track with their leaders taking charge. Two-time Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale (16 votes) was a surprise winner last year, after not even being selected in the All-Australian team. The Lions co-captain has still given himself another good chance in the count, averaging 2.4 more disposals, 0.4 more marks, 1.2 more inside-50s and 6.8 more ranking points per game. Dayne Zorko (10 votes) has moved to half back, which has seen him get a heap of the ball and become a dominant rebounder, resulting in plenty of Brownlow attention.

CARLTON

Sitting comfortably second on the ladder, the Blues are peaking. Captain Patrick Cripps (24 votes) is arguably in career-best form and will be aiming for his second Brownlow Medal. Carlton is strong all over the ground, but it’s hard to look past Sam Walsh (14 votes) for a Brownlow smokey this year. Despite missing a large part of the start of the season, he has been a shining light since his return. Obviously, Walsh could steal some votes from Cripps.

COLLINGWOOD

Averaging 30.5 disposals and 7.1 clearances per game, Nick Daicos (27 votes) could be destined for his first Brownlow after a knee injury wrecked his chances in last year’s count. After a relatively slow start, Daicos has stepped his game up to a whole new level, helping Collingwood climb its way back into the top eight. With players like Jack Crisp (5 votes) and Scott Pendlebury (4 votes) following Daicos, this could be the year for the young Magpie.

Nick Daicos stuns the Suns with brilliant solo effort

ESSENDON

Currently in the top four, the Bombers have surprised many. In a tough run ahead, the Dons will be looking for their captain Zach Merrett (19 votes) to step up and lead the way. After a strong start to the season, Merrett has slightly faded – but not much. Nic Martin (8 votes), who has been racking up possessions in the backline should poll a few votes here and there, but all eyes will be on Merrett and whether he has enough to pose a threat.

FREMANTLE

What a month it’s been for the men out west. The Dockers, who stunned Sydney by one point at the SCG last weekend, are sitting third on the ladder, thanks to clearance king Caleb Serong (21 votes). Serong is averaging 30.8 disposals and 7.8 clearances per game. Only Andrew Brayshaw (9 votes) and Hayden Young (8 votes) would be the only threats to take votes off Serong, so the young midfielder has a decent chance if things go his way for the rest of the season.

GEELONG

Fair to say the Cats have had a rollercoaster season, but still see themselves in the eight. One positive has been the evolution of speedster Max Holmes (10 votes) who will be Geelong’s favourite to do the best at this year’s Brownlow count. Jeremy Cameron (8 votes) has been solid once again, kicking 29 goals, and Rising Star favourite Oliver Dempsey (6 votes) should poll the occasional vote, averaging 17.6 disposals and just under one goal per game.

GOLD COAST

Coach Damien Hardwick has much to look forward to, with Noah Anderson (17 votes) going into the count confident. Sam Flanders (7 votes) with a new role in the Gold Coast midfield, has seen him gather a lot of the Sherrin, averaging 31.6 disposals and 119.6 SuperCoach

points per game. He’s definitely one to watch – could cause a surprise on the night.

GWS GIANTS

After a hot start to the season, Tom Green (16 votes) was looking dangerous. A few off games for him during the middle part of the year has moved him down in the pecking order. Lachie Whitfield (9 votes) played his best game of the season in his side’s loss to Adelaide, notching 41 disposals. Riddled with injury, Josh Kelly (8 votes) has played just 12 games this season, and is now out for six weeks with a calf injury. Could’ve been a chance if he stayed healthy.

HAWTHORN

After a poor start, the Hawks have remarkably been able to turn their season around, sitting just one win outside the eight. Jai Newcombe (11 votes) and Dylan Moore (10 votes) have been Hawthorn’s best in their wins. Despite these players most likely not troubling the voting this year, it’s been an ultimate team-first attitude that has seen Sam Mitchell’s men get their season on a roll.

MELBOURNE

The big man has been delivering. With their season still in the balance, ruckman Max Gawn (14 votes) has been playing some exceptional football for the Demons, averaging the second-most SuperCoach points in the league at 125.6. With the injured Christian Petracca (12 votes) now out for the season, Gawn could be the first Demon to win the Brownlow since Shane Woewodin in 2000.

NORTH MELBOURNE

It’s been another year of development for the Kangaroos, but there have been some positive signs, losing their last three games by a combined total of 21 points. The future of North – Luke Davies-Uniacke (6 votes) and Harry Sheezel (4 votes) will poll, but due to only winning one game for the whole year, it’ll be hard to see any North players on the podium.

PORT ADELAIDE

Only four votes off winning last year, Zak Butters (17 votes) is back in the mix again. His explosiveness and determination makes him a key asset to the Port Adelaide midfield. His season averages per game mirror his 2023 season, so expect him to do well again. Jason Horne-Francis (9 votes), Port’s best against the Saints last weekend with 28 disposals and one goal should also poll well. We will see if he affects Butters’ votes and chances of winning.

RICHMOND

New coach, new future, but it’s been a tough year for the Tigers, with season-ending injuries affecting their senior players. Not too many players will impact the count. Tim Taranto (4 votes) has only played eight games, but would most likely be Richmond’s leader, averaging 14.5 kicks and 101.6 SuperCoach points per game. Shai Bolton (3 votes) and Dustin Martin (3 votes) will closely follow.

ST KILDA

After an impressive 2023 campaign, the Saints have not impressed in 2024. Sitting in the bottom four, Ross Lyon and his men have struggled to find winning form. Despite lower season-averages compared to last year, Jack Sinclair (8 votes) has averaged 26.9 disposals and career-best 3.4 clearances per game. Ruckman Rowan Marshall (6 votes) has also attracted the umpires’ eye, averaging 107.6 SuperCoach points, down from a career-high 114.3 last season.

SYDNEY

What a year it has been for the red and white, dominating across the ground, but especially in the midfield. Isaac Heeney (25 votes) is one of the favourites for this year’s count, with the only concern is how well his teammates Errol Gulden (16 votes) and Chad Warner (15 votes) will poll. Both midfielders have put on some clinical performances for the Swans, which could pinch crucial votes from Heeney. It should be another nailbiting finish to the count.

WEST COAST

Despite just three wins, there have been some positives for the Eagles, with home crowd numbers increasing for the Harley Reid (4 votes) show. This young raging bull of a player has shown his strength and marking ability on numerous occasions, working well in the midfield with the experienced Elliot Yeo (8 votes), who has come back this season, averaging 6.9 tackles and 7.2 clearances, after just 10 games last year.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Could this finally be the year of the Bont? Marcus Bontempelli (20 votes) has been runner-up twice. The Dogs captain has put on another colossal season, averaging 1.5 goals per game – a significant increase from last year. Damaging in both the midfield and forward line, Bontempelli has given himself another great chance to take ‘Charlie’ home. Arguably the most underrated player in the Bulldogs team, Adam Treloar (12 votes) is predicted to poll well, averaging 31.5 disposals this season – a 2.2 increase.

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