Ultimate KFC SuperCoach rookie guide: Who to buy, hold and sell for Round 9

Almost 50 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches are set to miss out on Tom Highmore’s steep price rise. But should that be avoided? The case for and against trading him in.

More than 85,000 KFC SuperCoaches rejoiced at 6.20pm on Thursday night when St Kilda named Tom Highmore for the first time since Round 2.

But there remains 48 per cent of coaches who don’t own the Saints rookie.

Some never started him in the first place, while others lost patience with all hope seemingly lost of a return.

Against the odds, Highmore is now back, which begs the question for non-owners – is it worth bringing him in ahead of his price rise?

Let’s break down whether it will be worthwhile.

Watch the 2021 Toyota AFL Premiership Season. Every match of every round Live on Kayo. New to Kayo? Try 14-Days Free Now >

Tom Highmore, who been a standout in the VFL, is back in for the Saints in Round 9. Picture: Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos

CASE FOR

Highmore holds the lowest break even of any rookie ahead of Round 9, projected to rise $60k by SuperCoach Plus.

If Highmore remains in the side, and continues on the way he began the season, he will reach around $300k before St Kilda’s Round 14 bye.

Can you afford to miss out on this potential cash when our rookies are drying up, particularly when more than half of the SuperCoach landscape already have him?

Not only is he a potential money-maker, he also proved he can produce promising on-field scores without big possession tallies.

Highmore posted totals of 60 and 77 in his first two matches – his 77 came from just nine touches and five tackles.

Love you, @stkildafc. I take back everything. #SuperCoachhttps://t.co/IRjb3xjHWl

— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) May 13, 2021

Is this real life? ✅ pic.twitter.com/KTNLCEzypN

— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) May 13, 2021

The mature-age defender was plucked from the SANFL in last year’s draft thanks to his strong intercept game, which we know is a rewarding scoring avenue in KFC SuperCoach.

In his last VFL game against Box Hill, a forward tag was put on Highmore, such was his influence.

The 23-year-old had 32 disposals including 24 kicks, clunked 11 intercept marks and finished with 136 KFC SuperCoach points.

They are some serious numbers, and clearly Highmore has been promoted to the senior side on form, rather than through necessity.

LATE MAIL: ALL THE LATEST KFC SUPERCOACH NEWS, WHISPERS

But will the mature-age defender keep his spot? Picture: Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos

CASE AGAINST

It came as a shock to most that Highmore was named in the Saints side, especially with veteran key defender James Frawley among the inclusions, and the height of their back six could mean it is a short stay for Highmore.

Even after the omission of tall backman Darragh Joyce, St Kilda has named four players in its back six above 191cm – Dougal Howard (199cm), Callum Wilkie (191cm), Highmore (193cm) and Frawley (193cm).

Richmond was exposed last week against Geelong’s three-headed monster of Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins and Gary Rohan – along with Esava Ratugolea playing up forward while Mark Blicavs rucked.

Looking at match-ups, the inclusion of Highmore – who is a noted interceptor – might also be an attempt to quell the Cats’ taller forward line.

Is this backline set-up sustainable going forward? Will Brett Ratten play Highmore against the Bulldogs in Round 10, who have a mosquito fleet of small forwards crumbing at the feet of Josh Bruce and Aaron Naughton?

Former top-ten selection Nick Coffield was dropped along with Joyce, and fellow defenders Jake Carlisle and Jarryn Geary were both listed as ‘tests’ on their injury list.

These factors cast further doubt over his long-term job security.

VERDICT: BUY.Short answer: FOMO. The risk of missing out on the popular Highmore, who could be the most lucrative SuperCoach rookie defender at a difficult time for cash generation, outweighs the concerns over his long-term job security. As experienced KFC SuperCoaches know, coaches often stick by their young talent if they are performing well, regardless of pressure coming from the reserves. If, say, Highmore pumps out an 80, he would remain in the Saints side and be heading towards $300k in a matter of weeks, and you will be ruing the decision to pass on him. Worst case scenario will see Highmore score OK this week, make some cash and get dropped. Then you’re just like the majority of KFC SuperCoaches waiting for him to come back in. Trading in Highmore this week is crisis management 101.

Why you should hold Swans SuperCoach rookies

A difficult month is coming for KFC SuperCoaches and nailing your rookie trades will be critical.

Making downgrades and upgrades becomes tougher as the bye rounds approach, with cash reserves and trades dwindling and rookie dead wood piling up on our benches.

It will mean holding onto some rookies for a couple of weeks longer than you might have planned and copping some price drops from our starting cheapies.

Luckily, several cash cows still have money to make – or remain reliable on-field scorers – and coaches are spoilt for downgrade options this week to help replenish their rookie stocks.

TRADE GUIDE: ALL THIS WEEK’S TOP SUPERCOACH TARGETS

Magpie Caleb Poulter will shoot up in price after his third game.

ROUND 9 ROOKIE RANKINGS

1. Caleb Poulter (Coll) $117,300 FWD/MID | Average: 66.5 | Break Even: -63

2. Riley Collier-Dawkins (Rich) $123,900 MID | Av: 59.5 | BE: -45

3. Ryan Byrnes (StK) $123,900 MID | Av: 57 | BE: -40

4. Matthew Owies (Carl) $123,900 FWD | Av: 58 | BE: -42

5. Jordon Sweet (WB) $123,900 RUC | Av: 61.5 | BE: -49

6. Harry Edwards (WCE) $123,900 DEF | Av: 52 | BE: -30

Poulter tops the list of bubble boys this week after posting 81 points from 18 disposals against North Melbourne.

Yes, it was against North, but Poulter looks comfortable at the level and the struggling Pies should continue to give him opportunities.

The midfield-forward with a flowing mullet averaged 94 KFC SuperCoach points in his first two VFL games of 2021, after averaging 130 points at SANFL under-18 level last year.

Poulter makes good decisions, has a raking kick, and can impact games forward of centre, which bodes well for his scoring going forward.

The job security of Collier-Dawkins is improving by the week – not by performance, but due to Richmond’s growing injury list.

With Trent Cotchin (2-4 weeks), Dion Prestia (1-2), Shane Edwards (4-6), Kane Lambert (2-3) and now Shai Bolton (2-3) missing, Collier-Dawkins should get an extended run in the side.

The inside midfielder scored 43 points from 14 disposals and just 63 per cent game time against Geelong, but you would expect his time-on-ground to improve with more Tigers sidelined.

However, it is worth noting that despite Collier-Dawkins doing his best work in the coalface, he isn’t known for being a massive ball-winner, averaging 14.3 disposals in his last full season in the VFL in 2019.

Riley Collier-Dawkins does his best work at centre bounces.

Byrnes has flown under the radar from a SuperCoach perspective and is another good option, doing his best work on the outside for the Saints.

Coach Brett Ratten appears to have faith in him, giving Byrnes an AFL call-up just two weeks after he returned from injury.

Byrnes played one game last year, scoring 22 points, which luckily doesn’t affect his 2021 price.

The same goes for mature-age forward Owies, who also recorded a measly score of 15 last year.

The former Australian junior basketballer’s 2021 form has been far better, kicking five majors and averaging 58 points in his two matches.

But his role as a pressure forward isn’t favourable for KFC SuperCoach, highlighted by a 49-point total against the Western Bulldogs which included two goals.

Sweet may get another few weeks in the senior side with Stefan Martin listed as 2-4 weeks away with an achilles injury.

ROOKIE VERDICTS: EVERY ROOKIE RATED

THE ORIGINALS

Tom Powell (NM) $381,300 MID

Av: 77.3 | BE: 56 | Ownership: 58.5 per cent

Powell is averaging 88.2 KFC SuperCoach points in his past five matches – that is 11 more than so-called premium Patrick Cripps. North Melbourne’s run of losses hasn’t stopped Powell finding the footy, making $228,000 on his starting price while proving to be an on-field lock. His break even remains manageable with matches against current bottom-four sides Hawthorn and Essendon awaiting him in the next fortnight.

VERDICT: HOLD. Projected to be reach $421,000 by North Melbourne’s Round 12 bye, which is when you should look to upgrade him to an uber-premium.

Errol Gulden couldn’t maintain his flying start.

Errol Gulden (Syd) $282,900 MID

Av: 78.3 | BE: 63 | Ownership: 58.5 per cent

Gulden was the rookie golden boy after back-to-back 130s in his first two senior games, but his scoring across the past three weeks has resembled a small forward. Gulden has averaged 9.3 disposals, kicked one goal and averaged 47.7 KFC SuperCoach points, compared to 15.7 disposals and 96.6 points in his five games to start the season. Since reaching his peak price of $315k in Round 5, Gulden has lost $32k in value and faces another high break even.

VERDICT: TRADE/HOLD. Feel free to trade if he gives you the cash to get to a premium, but he could be worth giving another week with a favourable match-up against Collingwood.

Tom Highmore (StK) $117,300

Av: 68.5 | BE: -67 | Ownership: 52 per cent

He’s in. The risk of missing out on the popular Highmore, who could be the most lucrative SuperCoach rookie defender at a difficult time for cash generation, outweighs the concerns over his long-term job security. As experienced SuperCoaches know, coaches often stick by their young talent if they are performing well, regardless of pressure coming from the reserves. If, say, Highmore pumps out an 80, he would remain in the Saints side and be heading towards $300k in a matter of weeks, and you will be ruing the decision to pass on him. Worst case scenario will see Highmore score OK this week, make some cash and get dropped. Then you’re just like the majority of KFC SuperCoaches waiting for him to come back in. Trading in Highmore this week is crisis management 101.

VERDICT: BUY.

Photographic evidence Tom Highmore does exist — playing for Sandringham in the VFL.

Anthony Scott has played every game for the Bulldogs this year.

Anthony Scott (WB) $266,000 MID/FWD

Av: 55.6 | BE: 10 | Ownership: 51.9 per cent

After two 20s in the first month, Scott has logged four-straight 60-plus totals. His score of 85 points over the weekend came from just 12 disposals and saw him rise another $33.5k. Scott holds a low break even of 10 and coach Luke Beveridge appears to be a fan of what the pressure forward is producing.

VERDICT: HOLD. Should have another couple of price rises in him.

James Rowe (Adel) $236,200 FWD

Av: 56 | BE: 23 | Ownership: 51.9 per cent

Rowe pulled off his third 70-plus score at Adelaide Oval in Showdown 49, scoring 81 points as one of the Crows’ shining lights. The mature-ager’s break even is back down to 23 but given his propensity to have a stinker, particularly away from home, we know he is no guarantee to pass this against West Coast at Perth Stadium.

VERDICT: HOLD. See what he can do against the Eagles, as he faces the undefeated Demons in Round 10.

Jacob Koschitzke (Haw) $276,400 DEF

Av: 54.7 | BE: 60 | Ownership: 51.9 per cent

Koschitzke looked like he may struggle to get to $200k, so KFC SuperCoaches would be happy he has made more than $150k on his starting price. His ton against Adelaide drops out of his three-round rolling average this week, but another big score could be on the way in his clash with North Melbourne this weekend. Coaches will remember his 130 points and six goals against the Kangaroos in the pre-season, and David Noble’s side has been decimated by injury since then.

VERDICT: HOLD. Look to trade other rookies if you can, as his 38 last round might be offset by monster score this weekend.

Jacob Koschitzke has kicked nine goals this season.

Tyler Brockman (Haw) $172,100 MID

Av: 43 | BE: 30 | Ownership: 44.5 per cent

Brockman hasn’t been sighted since Round 4, and the small forward fell below his current break even 30 twice in his four senior games. Brockman has kicked three goals and averaged 15 disposals and 83.5 KFC SuperCoach points in his past two VFL matches, which could see Alastair Clarkson turn to him, but is he worth holding anyway?

VERDICT: TRADE/HOLD. Might be worth waiting until teams are named to see if he is brought back. If not, turn him into one of the three bubble boys.

James Jordon (Melb) $326,200 MID

Av: 70.9 | BE: 18 | Ownership: 43.8 per cent

Jordon was rewarded for his strong month by receiving the Round 8 Rising Star nomination, finishing with 23 disposals, 13 contested possessions, eight tackles and 85 KFC SuperCoach points. It was the 20-year-old’s sixth score of 76 or above this season, illustrating his reliability as an on-field scorer. He has appreciated over $200k and doesn’t look like stopping yet, with match-ups against Carlton and Adelaide to come in the next fortnight.

VERDICT: HOLD. Jordon is another rookie who has cash to make and is scoring better than some of our premiums at the moment anyway.

Chad Warner (Syd) $329,400 FWD

Av: 36.7 | BE: 74 | Ownership: 36.7

Warner is continuing to receive encouraging centre-bounce minutes at the Swans, attending 45 per cent of them against Melbourne – only midfielders Callum Mills and Luke Parker attended more. While he hasn’t scored above 80 points in the past month, the second-year midfielder has logged just one score below 61 across the season.

VERDICT: HOLD. I would be in no rush to trade Warner before a clash with the down and out Pies.

Braeden Campbell hasn’t been seen since Round 6. Picture: Phil Hillyard

Braeden Campbell (Syd) $235,800 FWD/MID

Av: 54.7 | BE: 66 | Ownership: 34 per cent

Campbell has been out of the Swans side for the past two weeks after coming on as the sub in Round 6. He also had a break even of 66 after back-to-back scores in the 30s, so he is set for a fall when he returns.

VERDICT: TRADE. Cash him in this week, you’ve held on long enough.

Nik Cox (Ess) $278,900 DEF/FWD

Av: 57 | BE: 74 | Ownership: 23.5 per cent

Since Cox stunned KFC SuperCoaches and Bombers fans alike with consecutive 90-point showings, he has averaged 47.8 points per game with five scores under 50. The past two weeks has seen the athletic 199cm Don fall $22k, and he has to score 74 just to maintain his price.

VERDICT: TRADE. His DPP should give you flexibility in who you trade him to.

Connor Downie (Haw) $117,300 MID

Av: N/A | Ownership: 23.1 per cent

Downie was one of the buzz rookies of the pre-season, but a strong summer hasn’t corresponded to strong VFL form. Downie is averaging 11 touches and 47 KFC SuperCoach points for Box Hill and does not look to be as close to a debut as first thought.

VERDICT: HOLD… For now. He isn’t making you any cash with a sideways. Consider moving him on to avoid a zero during the byes if he still isn’t playing.

Connor Downie is trying to push into the Hawthorn senior line-up.

Sam Berry (Adel) $209,200 MID

Av: 50.9 | BE: 36 | Ownership: 23.5 per cent

Berry has applied plenty of pressure in his seven games, averaging 5.7 tackles, but has not found enough of the footy, winning just 9.1 disposals per game. After a quiet seven-possession game in the Showdown, Berry is a chance to be dropped ahead of a tough trip to Perth to face West Coast. Berry is averaging 39.7 points in his last three matches.

VERDICT: TRADE. Money seems to have dried up.

Tanner Bruhn (GWS) $155,900 MID

Av: 35.3 | BE: 32 | Ownership: 21.1 per cent

Bruhn has played just two games since Round 2 — one as the substitute (eight points) and a 53-point effort against the Bombers. The first-round draftee kicked two goals from six disposals, which should give him at least another week or two in the side.

VERDICT: HOLD. You’ve held on this long, and you might just be rewarded for your patience once his score of eight drops out of his rolling average.

Harry Sharp (Bris) $117,300 DEF/MID

Av: 35.5 | BE: -1 | Ownership: 19.5 per cent

Sharp has been an emergency a couple of times but has not featured since Round 2, when he scored 20 points.

VERDICT: HOLD. His DEF/MID status is handy for trades and as a loophole.

Lachie McNeil (WB) $221,900 FWD

Av: 50 | BE: 1 | Ownership: 18.6 per cent

Credit to those who held McNeil after he was named as the sub in Round 6, when he managed to score 50 points due to an early injury. McNeil then scored a season-high 81 points in the Bulldogs’ win over Carlton, which leaves him with a break even of 1 after making close to $120k.

VERDICT: HOLD. Still has cash to make.

Paul Hunter (StK) $134,200 RUC

Av: 44 | BE: -8 | Ownership: 17.5 per cent

Hunter struggled in his three senior games, averaging 44 KFC SuperCoach points, and is now well back in the queue with the Rowan Marshall-Paddy Ryder combination humming.

VERDICT: HOLD. Move him on to a ruck rookie when one presents.

MORE: KFC SUPERCOACH ULTIMATE BYE PLANNER

Miles Bergman at Port Adelaide training.

Miles Bergman (PA) $252,000

Av: 57.5 | BE: 7 | Ownership: 14.7 per cent

Bergman has been a consistent scorer since being brought back into the side in Round 5, averaging 64 KFC SuperCoach points, including 76 and 67 in his past two matches. He has ticked over $250k and is projected to rise to around $300k before his bye if he continues on this trajectory.

VERDICT: HOLD. Bergman is a viable on-field option in a thin forward line.

Lachie Young (NM) $300,500

Av: 65.3 | BE: 81 | Ownership: 13.3 per cent

One of the unheralded unique rookie picks down back, Young hit the $310k after six straight scores of 63 or more. However, the past two weeks he has managed lower totals of 49 and 48, with his break even rising well above his average.

VERDICT: TRADE. Only $140k under the likes of Steven May and Caleb Daniel.

Harrison Jones (Ess) $217,800 FWD

Av: 45 | BE: -10 | Ownership: 11.8 per cent

Jones looked like his price might go backwards after a score of five in Round 2, but those who held him could see him reach $250k in the coming weeks. He has produced scores of 79 and 60 in his past two, kicking five goals.

VERDICT: HOLD. Low break even and starting to have a say on games.

Jordon Butts (Adel) $321,00

Av: 66 | BE: 21 | Ownership: 6.6 per cent

Few expected Butts to score this well. The key defender has made $144k on his starting price and is set to rise even more, having averaged 76 points in his past three. He seems to produce better scores when the Crows lose, so a couple of good scores could be on the way with difficult clashes against West Coast and Melbourne.

VERDICT: HOLD. May get to $350k, which would be a massive win.

Harrison Jones has been a slow burn at the Bombers.

Alec Waterman is a chance to return this week.

THE OTHERS

Alec Waterman (Ess) $148,400

Av: 54.7 | BE: 5 | Ownership: 31.4 per cent

Every man and his dog jumped on Waterman ahead of a wet-weather contest with Brisbane and he has been unsighted since. A hamstring injury to Jake Stringer may open the door for the mature-age recruit, who has averaged 13.5 disposals, 9.5 contested possessions, 96 KFC SuperCoach points and booted 3.5 in his two VFL games this season.

VERDICT: HOLD. Has cash to make when he does break in, hopefully sooner rather than later.

Finlay Macrae $137,600 FWD/MID

Av: 33.7 | BE: 22 | Ownership: 29.7 per cent

Opening his senior AFL account with three scores of 41 or less, Macrae put in a strong VFL performance over the weekend, tallying 31 disposals, eight score involvements, five tackles and 91 KFC SuperCoach points.

VERDICT: HOLD. May be back in the side sooner than expected.

Heath Chapman (Frem) $250,500 DEF

Av: 56.2 | BE: 85 | Ownership: 31.4 per cent

Chapman showed real promise in a couple of games but has been ruled out for the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery.

VERDICT: TRADE. Won’t lose money but it is best to cash him in as soon as you can.