The case for and against trading for SuperCoach’s two-round mid-price stars
There’s too much value this year in the SuperCoach mid-price ranks to be missing out. We’ve ranked the top 10 players you must consider before prices change.
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One of the unwritten rules to SuperCoach success has long been avoiding mid-price players. Rarely does a rookie climb into premium status early in their careers or a returning player immediately elevates themselves back to the top echelon of players after injury.
But much like the early results in the AFL, with Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda occupying four of the top-five spots, this season has already gone against the norm.
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Mid-price players account for two of the top-10 scorers (Tom Rockliff and Dom Sheed) and seven of top-25 players after two rounds.
Most of the top picks are about to surge in price and if you don’t select them this week, you’ll miss out.
We’ve ranked the top-10 options in order you should prioritise trading them in:
1. Tom Rockliff $405,900 MID Avg: 127 BE: -19
The case for: Hard to ignore the huge numbers Rocky has posted in the first two weeks. This has to be the round you jump on Rockliff if you’re keen as his price is about to jump by $50,000. He’s tallied 138 & 116 in the first two rounds and has averaged 109 or better four times. His Round 12 bye avoids many of the top premiums.
The case against: Will he be a top-eight midfielder come season’s end? The price jump and two-round average is tempting, but are you happy to burn a second trade later in the year if he doesn’t average above 105? There’s also the question of how he fares with Ollie Wines back and whether he will be tagged. Will Setterfield kept Rockliff to 27 points in the second half on Saturday. He’s only played 20 games or more three times in 10 seasons.
2. Tom Liberatore $300,400 MID Avg: 101.5 BE: -29
For: He’s had 28 disposals two weeks in a row and the Bulldogs are already talking up the importance of Libba to their midfield. There was panic when his stats only equated to 75 points in Round 1 but he allayed any concerns with 128 against Hawthorn. He’s the most obvious stepping stone to a premium this year with such a low break-even.
Against: Can’t find too many issues with Liberatore. The only issue might be that his price means you will either be punting a premium player such as Dustin Martin or using two trades to upgrade a rookie to get him. Neither situation is ideal but Libba’s value makes both options worth considering.
3. James Worpel $395,700 FWD-MID Avg: 101 BE: 28
For: There’s so much value in the Worpedo. He’s averaging the type of numbers that will have him pushing to be a top-10 forward at season’s end. He’s swiftly answered any doubts about who will fill Tom Mitchell’s role and looks at home despite his inexperience at the top level. He’s hardly looked out of place from his debut. His Round 12 bye is handy too.
Against: He’s only played 14 AFL games. Is that enough for you to be convinced he can maintain this type of scoring for a full season? It’s a big ask but he will provide you coverage in both midfield and up forward later in the season if you jump on now. More than 50 per cent of his games so far have resulted in scores under 90.
4. Brodie Smith $332,500 DEF Avg: 89 BE: 15
For: There was always going to be serious value in defence this year and Smith is one of the best examples. He had 129 in his second game back from injury late last year and has backed up with 81 and 97 to start 2019.
Against: Smith has only had one full season where he has averaged above 90 which was five years ago, in 2014. He averaged 82.2 over 22 games in 2017, numbers which would mean you’d have to burn a second trade to upgrade him. Possibly the greatest issue is how you fit him in. Most of the defensive premiums are firing and the popular rookies are about to soar in price.
5. Scott Lycett $441,200 RUC-FWD Avg: 118 BE: 20
For: The West Coast premiership ruckman has relegated Paddy Ryder to the forward line after his arrival at the Power and showed how high his ceiling is with 167 against Carlton. The greatest positive is Lycett is available as both a ruckman and forward. If you don’t want to be burning trades later in the season should Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy miss, Lycett is the man to provide insurance if you have West Coast rookie Patrick Bines on the bench. Simply swing Bines forward, Lycett into attack and you have a No. 1 big man to cover an absence.
Against: Are Port Adelaide’s three big men going to rotate the monster score each round? Justin Westhoff went big in the Power’s Round 1 victory over Melbourne, when Lycett only scored 69. In Round 2 the roles were reversed, with Lycett posting 167 and Westhoff 47. Throw Ryder into the mix as well and there will always be a risk. Lycett was West Coast’s first-choice ruckman last year for 22 games and only averaged 81.3. His career-best season was 2016 when he averaged 83.2.
6. Dom Sheed $394,100 MID Avg: 122 BE: -15
For: The No. 2 mid-price midfield option behind Rockliff. It’s a bonus you save $13,000 if you pick Sheed instead of Rockliff and he’s also in less teams than the resurgent Port Adelaide on-baller. For all the doubts about the sustainability of Sheed’s form, he keeps delivering. He’s posted 144 and 100 in the opening two games, proving he can go big in losses against Brisbane in Round 1. He amassed 130, 105 and 116 in last year’s finals series.
Against: The question most coaches have been asking — Can Sheed maintain his stunning form when Andrew Gaff returns to the West Coast side? We’ll find that out this weekend when Gaff’s suspension expires. He ticks most of the other boxes, although whether he’ll be a top-ranked midfielder at the end of the season is a question mark.
7. Jade Gresham $429,600 FWD Avg: 103.5 BE: 42
For: Worpel and Lycett are the top picks up forward in the mid-price range, but if you need a point of difference Gresham is your man. Nick Riewoldt labelled the young gun the best player at St Kilda after his matchwinning heroics against Essendon. He’s attending more centre bounces than in previous years and is a major threat when deployed inside 50. More contested ball and the ability to hit the scoreboard makes him a SuperCoach star in the making.
Against: Traditionally, the topscoring players each week are in successful teams. The Saints have made a promising start, but you’d want to be confident they’ll pick up a few more wins before trading in Gresham. He shouldn’t be heavily impacted when Dan Hannebery returns from injury, but there’ll always be that question mark about how the midfield mix will look until we get some evidence. He’s prone to the odd low game, scoring below 60 four times in 2018.
8. Zac Williams $407,800 DEF Avg: 88.5 BE: 60
For: Williams was a popular starting pick and has a proven history of scoring well, averaging 88.2 in 2017 and 93.9 in 2018 before he missed all of last year with injury. He’s tricky to trade to due to his $407,000 price tag but if you’re carrying a premium defender you’re unhappy with he should be in the mix as a replacement. Lachie Whitfield has been playing further afield, with Williams the go-to man out of defence for the Giants.
Against: We always wonder if a player who missed 12 months with injury will be managed at some point during the season. The Giants took no risks with Williams during the finals last year and hopefully his extended period on the sidelines will mitigate this risk. He has consistently scored 80-90 but games of 120+ are rare.
9. Brad Crouch $418,000 MID Avg: 97.5 BE: 47
For: Crouch will almost always play third fiddle in the Adelaide midfield to Rory Sloane and his brother Matt, allowing him to rack up possessions without the hassle of close attention from opposition.
Against: As obvious as Crouch’s talent is, his injury history will always mean there’s huge risk involved with picking him. He needs to average 105 to justify spending more than $400,000. His average of 86.6 from 2016 was the worst of his career and he’s twice averaged better than 90 over a season. He’s averaging close to 100 after two games but you want him to push above triple figures if you’re going to bring him in.
10. Wayne Milera $433,100 DEF Avg: 93.5 BE: 64
For: One of the few players on this list who still has genuine POD value, in only 2.6% of teams. Deployed across halfback last season, Milera pushed his average from 58.6 to 79.8 and is clearly on an upward trajectory. He started last year slowly but his finish to the year was tough to overlook as he managed three hundreds and three scores above 90 in the last seven rounds.
Against: Do too many cooks really spoil the broth? Milera is a star and his efficiency by foot is impeccable. But when he’s competing with a proven premium in Rory Laird and the returning Brodie Smith for points each week in defence, there will always be some risk. Smith is available for $100,000 less and you can mount a decent argument the pair will average similar.
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