The case for and against three KFC SuperCoach breakout contenders
The breakout player is the white whale of SuperCoach. Can you catch the mid-pricer ready to jump to stardom? Here are three big chances to make the leap in 2020.
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Each year the search continues for the elusive breakout KFC SuperCoach star — the player who jumps from the pack to become a low-priced, high-scoring gun.
Last year St Kilda big man Rowan Marshall increased his average from 62.8 points a game to 110.2, making him one of the buys of the year. Who will make the leap in 2020?
This year we’ll be looking at a breakout contender from the backline, the midfield and the forward line.
We’re ignoring the ruck line because you should have already selected Grundy and Gawn — just do yourself a favour and lock them away now.
MIDFIELD
Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) $510,700 MID
McCluggage has to be the most exciting 21-year-old in the competition, with Tim Taranto a very close second, and mark my words, 2020 will be his year.
Having already had a mini-breakout in 2019 (jumping his average from 77 to 94), McCluggage gave us a preview of what he might do in this season.
THE CASE FOR
McCluggage posted 12 scores of 94-plus in 2019 including nine scores of 101 or more. This excites me a lot.
In all 12 of those games he was able to hit the scoreboard and record 20 or more disposals. He also averaged 5.3 inside-50s and 1.6 rebound-50s throughout those games. What does this say to me? McCluggage is a two way-runner and he is going to be a game-winner.
In 2020 I see more attention going to Lachie Neale and Dayne Zorko, leaving McCluggage a clear path to become the next big thing in the AFL.
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THE CASE AGAINST
At his starting price, McCluggage would probably need to average 105-plus to warrant a starting selection in your side. After already increasing his average by 17 points per game last year can he add another 11 per game this year?
The Lions have built a very deep team up north and with the targeted additions of big-bodied Cam Ellis-Yolmen and talented youngster Deven Robertson their midfield has only become deeper.
Brisbane should be fostering McCluggage’s talent ahead of just about anyone else on their list but you never know what kind of rotations coaches can come up with in the pre-season.
DEFENCE
Sam Petrevski-Seton (Carlton) $443,300 DEF/MID
If, like me, you had picked SPS up at his lowest price in 2019 ($359k) and held him until Round 23, he would have netted you an average of 88.5 Supercoach points playing in both the midfield and defence for the Blues, a pretty acceptable output for a cheap forward. But can it get better?
THE CASE FOR
In 2019 Pretrevski-Seton posted scores of 108, 136, 74, 113 and 93 in games where he had 20-plus disposals and at least two clearances.
In these games in which SPS featured significantly in the midfield, the Blues defeated the Bulldogs, Fremantle and Gold Coast and suffered narrow losses to Port Adelaide and Hawthorn.
With Sam Docherty Nic Newman and The Great Sleeved One, Kade Simpson, all fit and firing in Carlton’s backline, I think there is less time for SPS to sit behind the ball and more time for him to compete in the guts.
THE CASE AGAINST
We’ve established that SPS is pretty good in the midfield but what happens if he doesn’t play there?
Take it with a grain of salt, but the Blues have said that Jack Newnes, Jack Martin and even Eddie Betts will be running through the guts this year under their “strength-in-numbers” approach. This says to me that consistent midfield time might be hard to get for SPS.
While playing in defence last year he was still able to score above 80 points per game, but that’s not enough to warrant a selection on its own, add in the pending return of Sam Docherty and does that leave even fewer points in the backline for SPS?
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FORWARD
Jordan Dawson (Sydney) $467,800 DEF/FWD
Jordan Dawson has all of the telltale signs of a breakout contender and after a slow start to his career was able to average 86.2 SuperCoach points across 20 games in 2019. This number is poised to jump in 2020.
THE CASE FOR
Fifty per cent of Dawson’s games last season produced a score of at least 93 points. If that doesn’t get you excited about the talented 22-year-old, nothing will.
In those 10 game Dawson averaged 3.4 tackles, 6.6 marks and favoured kicking over handballing, recording 150 kicks to 63 handballs. Simply put, the kid can play at a very high level.10
With just five games to his name heading into 2019, Dawson unsurprisingly had a slow start to the year but came home in a flurry.
Rounds 1-8 netted Dawson an average of just 74 but from Round 9 onwards his form picked up for an average of 92.7.
If he can maintain this form throughout 2020 Dawson will be one of the must-have forward line selections in the game.
THE CASE AGAINST
The case against Dawson is his coach. The only question I have over a breakout year is whether Horse Longmire allows him to or not.
Remember when Nic Newman was averaging 30-plus disposals in the NEAFL but couldn’t break into the Swans side?
Remember when Tom Mitchell was averaging about 57 disposals in the reserves but couldn’t break into the Swans side?
Remember when Callum Mills was going to be the next big midfielder?
I’m not saying that Dawson won’t be in Sydney’s best 22, he will be, but time after time we’ve seen our hopes dashed by that dastardly red and white coaching panel.
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If you want to hear more from me or have a breakout contender of your own you want to discuss, you can hit me up on Twitter @LekdogSC or over at jockreynolds.com.au where you can subscribe to our podcast.