SuperCoach Round 6 trade guide: The fallen premiums who should be on your radar after tumbling in price
Tim Kelly is shaping as one of the topscoring forwards of the season, yet is available for less than $500,000 this week. Can you afford to wait another round to land the prolific Cat? FULL ROUND 6 TRADE GUIDE
Supercoach
Don't miss out on the headlines from Supercoach. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Shoppers normally have to wait until Boxing Day to snare the bargains of the year.
SuperCoaches have no such concerns, with some of the most reliable premium picks losing considerable value in the first five rounds of 2019.
RAGE TRADES: THE DOM SHEED EXPERIMENT IS OVER
THE TACKLE: ROOS CLOSE TO ‘FULL-BLOWN CRISIS’
BAROMETER: THE LATEST INJURY NEWS FROM YOUR CLUB
The time is just about right to jump on the first crop of fallen premiums of the year and start to jettison the underperforming cash cows from your team.
The plan should be reasonably simple.
Find a rookie whose average comes close to their breakeven, such as Matt Parker, and use whatever bank you have to turn them into a proven SuperCoach scorer whose value has dropped but who should rebound soon.
Rory Laird (35 per cent of teams), Nathan Fyfe (24 per cent), Dustin Martin (9 per cent) and Clayton Oliver (25 per cent) were players who entered the Easter weekend with huge break evens they were unable to match.
If you time your trades right, you’ll be able to add these players at their base price for the season and pay considerably less than thousands of other coaches did at the start of the campaign.
TOP TARGETS
Nat Fyfe $580,500 Mid Average: 111 Break even: 164 Bye: Round 12
Fyfe returned from concussion with 110 against GWS and a typically contested bull performance in midfield. There seems little doubt he’ll have an average in the top-10 midfielders come the end of the season, but the only question mark is how many games he’ll play. He has a Round 12 bye which avoids most of the popular premiums. It’ll likely be worth waiting another week or two when you should be able to secure him for less than $600,000.
When to buy: He should be about $550,000 in a few weeks. That’s too good to pass up, even if you only get four games before his buy.
Clayton Oliver $562,400 Mid Avg: 100.4 BE: 131 Bye: R13
One of the most reliable picks in recent years, Oliver has three scores below 100 in five rounds and has only once scored above 120. His tally of 108 against St Kilda in Round 5 was his second best of the season and he’ll soon be available for under $550,000 as a result. While the Demons are battling, you can bank on Oliver firing soon and proving a shrewd investment if you can find space for him in your midfield. Wait at least another game if you want to get him at his lowest point.
When to buy: Round 7 or 8 looks the perfect time to bring Oliver in. He might be available for close to $100,000 less than starting price.
Tim Kelly $491,000 Fwd-Mid Avg: 98.4 BE: 117 Bye: R13
Matt De Boer’s shutdown job on the Geelong midfielder was a godsend for those without Kelly in their teams. He was shaping as the must-have forward of the season before the Giants tagger kept him to 39 points in Round 4 and sent his price crashing below $500,000. Kelly is a player with a high ceiling and will hit triple figures most weeks. Most teams already have Patrick Dangerfield and you will need to cover them both during the byes, but Kelly will be too good to pass up as our first forward upgrade if his price gets close to $450,000.
When to buy: Unless you’re worried about the prospect of a Mark Hutchings tag, this is the week. Hutchings went to Travis Boak in Round 5 and he still managed 95.
Adam Treloar $561,700 Mid Avg: 111.2 BE: 93 Bye: R13
The Collingwood ball magnet is the point of difference on our shopping list, in less than 10 per cent of teams despite a flying start. Treloar was $594,200 in Round 1 but successive scores of 86 and 83 in rounds three and four should have him available for about $40,000 less than that this week. His score of 150 against Brisbane Lions will mean his price starts to rise again soon, so you might need to jump on prior to Anzac Day.
When to buy: Treloar is the POD of the midfield premiums. He relishes the big occasion and should be set for a big Anzac Day. Don’t be afraid to bring him in before Thursday.
Rory Laird $522,700 Def Avg: 94.8 BE: 104 Bye: R14
The most consistent SuperCoach defender in recent seasons, Laird’s dominance has been usurped by Jake Lloyd and Lachie Whitfield. He was still averaging 95 to Round 5, but the return of Brodie Smith from injury and the increased role of Wayne Milera impacted his scoring. It’s worth noting Milera is expected to miss 4-6 weeks after being injured in the Crows’ demolition of Gold Coast. Laird should be held if he’s already in your team, but prioritise Lloyd and Whitfield over him if you’re considering defensive upgrades. An average of about 90 is solid but his form hasn’t screamed ‘pick me’ yet. He might be a player you can consider after the byes, unless his form turns rapidly without Milera out.
When to buy: Laird’s role with Wayne Milera out will be intriguing to watch. You can afford to wait another week then try to add him for about $500,000.
Josh Kelly $594,100 Mid Avg: 102 BE: 134 Bye: R14
Kelly was a forgotten man due to his delayed start to 2019 but he’s still one of the best midfielders in the business. He’s logged scores of 95, 114 and 97 since returning to the Giants team and his price slide will start before Round 6 after he played his third game against Fremantle. A break even of 152 before Round 5 caused his price to drop below $600,000 and he’ll be tough to ignore if he tumbles to close to $550,000.
When to buy: Amazing to consider one of the best on-ballers in the game is in less than 7000 teams. He has the perfect SuperCoach bye and should be a target for Round 8 or 9.
Jack Macrae $654,300 Mid Avg: 121 BE: 173 Bye: R12
Prolific Bulldog Jack Macrae’s score of 97 against Carlton pushed his break even to 173 and he’ll drop in value for at least the next few weeks as a result. If he’s available for close to $600,000 don’t hesitate to jump on.
When to buy: You’ll still need to surrender a large chunk of your cash to bring in Macrae, but he’ll be well worth it. A trade before Round 8 gives you four games with him before his bye.
Patrick Dangerfield $617,500 Fwd-Mid Avg: 114.4 BE: 165 Bye: R13
If you didn’t start with Dangerfield, the chance will soon arrive to add the star Cat for less than $600,000. His Round 13 bye is an issue, but Dangerfield is destined to be the No. 1 forward this year. His price will likely bottom out after Round 7 and you’ll get a month from him before his bye. Don’t miss out.
When to buy: As soon as you can. Ideally he drops below $600,00 but you’re giving away points not having him in your forward line.
James Sicily $543,100 DEF Avg: 102.4 BE: 79 Bye: R12
We’ve missed out at Sicily’s low point in the first half of the year after he rose by about $10,000 after 117 against Geelong. He’s still on the rise and if he avoids suspension and injury it seems certain he’ll be a leading defender. He has a high ceiling and hasn’t gone below 80 to Round 5.
When to buy: This is the week. You’ll get him on the rise and with six games to play before his Round 12 bye.
Lachie Neale $687,400 Mid Avg: 135 BE: 168 Bye: R13
After scoring less than 100 for the first time this season against Collingwood, the No. 2 scorer of 2019 has reached his peak price. Neale had three scores of 140+ and a 127 before his 91 in Round 5 and is destined to be a top midfielder. Be mindful of his bye, which he shares with Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, Melbourne and West Coast.
When to buy: Prepare a war chest for Round 8 or 9 when he should be closer to his starting price of $607,300.
FEELING BRAVE?
Dustin Martin $492,200 Mid Avg: 87.5 BE: 111 Bye: R14
Is Dusty back? Although he spent a fair bit of time forward against Sydney, the Brownlow medallist played with a spring in his step and delivered a score of 115. His breakeven was 178 and he still has more value to lose, so take another 2-3 weeks to assess whether he’s back to his best before jumping on.
Justin Westhoff $392,200 Fwd-Ruc Avg: 70.2 BE: 112 Bye: R12
The Hoff has been one of the great sliders of the year. After sharing ruck duties with Paddy Ryder last season, he started with a price tag of $549,500 and pumped out a score of 149 in Round 1. He’s since scored between 47 and 67 with three scores below 50 and has fallen below $400,000. He’s hard to recommend on the form we’ve seen in the past month but consider him if he gets greater midfield minutes.
Joel Selwood $465,000 Mid Avg: 85 BE: 97 Bye: R13
Selwood is a dangerous player to own as he has been susceptible to a tag in the past. He’s also spending less time in midfield due to the influence of players such as Tim Kelly and only had an average of 82 after four rounds. That was largely due to a score of 46 in Round 3. There’s better midfield options to upgrade to and Selwood would probably be more of a sideways trade. His bye is also prohibitive.
Robbie Gray $463,900 Fwd-Mid Avg: 81 BE: 152 Bye: R12
A mercurial player at his best, Gray has been a yoyo SuperCoach scorer. If you push the trade button at the right time he can be deadly, but if you get him on the wrong day when he spends time isolated in attack your overall score can suffer. His 45 against West Coast will sit in his cycle for another few weeks so don’t bring him in until at least Round 7 if you want to take the punt.
Sam Menegola $463,100 Fwd-Mid Avg: 77.4 BE: 168 Bye: R13
Someone you should be considering after the byes, especially if you already have Kelly and Dangerfield. If you load your forward line with three Cats, you’ll be in all sorts of trouble when their bye comes in Round 13. Menegola has two hundreds in four rounds but scores of 70 and 51 could cause him to be priced at about $450,000 soon.
Elliot Yeo $511,600 Mid Avg: 88 BE: 97 Bye: R13
A premiership star last year for the Eagles, but Dom Sheed (to Round 3) and Andrew Gaff have taken some of his midfield points. Yeo has three scores in the 80s and a 72, despite proving his high ceiling during West Coast’s flag surge. He was a risk at $585,000 in Round 1 but is at least worth some thought when he’ll be available for $100,000 less than his starting price.
Lance Franklin $435,400 Fwd Avg: 70 BE: 96 Bye: R13
The ultimate risk-reward. Ideally, you’d like to get to a point where you can use the bench loophole to get Buddy’s score when the week inevitably arrives when he kicks a bag. He’s still the focal point in the Sydney attack but with the Swans struggling Franklin hasn’t been as potent as normal, which has been reflected in his scores. With five scores of 80 or below he’s not the most appealing option on this list but Buddy can go huge on his day.
Tom McDonald $360,200 Fwd Avg: 49.8 BE: 96 Bye: R13
McDonald was more appealing as a SuperCoach pick when he was available with a Def-Fwd swing. He has scores of 26 and 33 in the first five rounds and a best of 80. As a result, he’s plummeted from $529,800 to under $400,000. If he gets sent back into defence and starts benefiting from the increased scoring which intercept possessions attract, then consider him. He’s not worth the risk as a forward.
Jack Riewoldt $504,100 Fwd Avg: 41.5 BE: 210 Bye: R14
One from left field. Riewoldt will return from injury on Anzac Day eve against Melbourne and his price will crash below $500,000 unless he kicks a huge bag. Riewoldt hasn’t averaged less than 82 points since 2012 and he’ll be worth a look if he tumbles toward $400,000. He got down to $324,100 last year and averaged 113.7 from then on.
Kade Simpson $479,100 Def Avg: 83.2 BE: 79 Bye: R14
A slow start — three scores of 83 or less — has caused Simpson’s price to fall by $91,200. Players with his reliability don’t come along often at less than $500,000 and he has a perfect bye. If he can average 95-100 he’ll be a perfect finishing D6.
CHOPPING BLOCK
Dom Sheed
The first signs of the Sheed-Gaff combination were positive, but spending more time forward has clearly affected grand final hero Sheed’s scoring. Sheed has scored 65 and 66 in the past two weeks and will lose value for the first time after Round 5. It’s time to bite the bullet and turn him into a premium scorer.
Harris Andrews
Andrews injured his hamstring in Brisbane’s loss to Collingwood and will be expected to miss at least a few weeks as a result. Those who chose him as a POD defender should be looking at how to upgrade him ahead of Round 6. You’d ideally like to wait a few weeks for Jake Lloyd or Lachie Whitfield to lose value, but you can’t go wrong bringing the top defenders in if you’ve built bank for such a trade.
Brad Crouch
Crouch has been scoring solidly enough to stay in your side for a bit longer, but he’s not posting the type of numbers he’ll need to be a premium midfielder. Start making plans to turn him into Fyfe, Josh Kelly or Treloar, if you prefer a POD.
Sam Collins
Only 45 points for Collins against Adelaide and his price will likely peak in two weeks. Sit him on your bench for Round 6 and then assess whether the best plan to move him on is via a trade to a rookie or by upgrading to a player such as Laird.
Josh Dunkley
He might have earned a few more chances with 95 against Carlton, but we’ve seen enough now to suggest Dunkley won’t be the premium forward those who started him were hoping for. If he’s the only way you can get a player such as Tim Kelly in, make the move without much hesitation.
Five moves that won me $50,000 in SuperCoach
The 20-year-old winner of SuperCoach AFL 2024 reveals the tactics that led him to the game’s top prize, beating out more than 180,000 players across the country.
SuperCoach wrap: Norm-worthy stars and grand final flops
Who stood up on the biggest SuperCoach stage and who disappointed when it counted most? Check out round 24’s heroes and villains – and some hot tips for 2025.