SuperCoach rookie bible: Who to trade and who to hold after Round 9

HE’S been the best rookie buy of the season but the time comes for every cash cow. Our take on which rookies to trade, who to hold and the bubble boys worth buying.

CONVENTIAL wisdom suggests trading in rookies after one match can be a fraught strategy.

As coaches plan for the looming bye rounds, Essendon pair Jordan Ridley and Dylan Clarke, Gold Coast rookie Jacob Heron and Melbourne’s Tim Smith will come into consideration after making their first appearances of 2018 at the weekend.

MARKET WATCH: IS IT DANGERFIELD TIME?

BOMBERS GUN: WAS TRADING SMITH A GIANT MISTAKE?

More than 10 per cent of trades by midday on Monday featured Ridley after he posted 76 on debut against Geelong.

Mature-age Demon Smith was another popular acquisition after he scored 91 in his first game of the year against Carlton.

You have another week to assess whether to add these players before their prices rise, but you also need to be decisive or could be left short during the byes.

Of this year’s top 15 cash cows, seven have managed greater scores than their first game in match two.

Those players have averaged 73 in game two, a slight increase of their combined 68.5 point average in their first match.

Those who took a punt on Ben Ronke, Jack Henry, Jake Waterman and Willie Rioli after their first game were handsomely rewarded.

Even in Supercoach, there are exceptions to the rule.

Here’s the information you need to know about this week’s Cash Cows and bubble boys.

CASH COWS

TRADE NOW

Bailey Banfield ($263,000, MID) — 56 points. Break-even: 56

Banfield is averaging 58 points in his debut year, just above his break-even. You can afford to hold him for another week, but consider turning him into one of the fallen midfield premiums available.

Mitch Crowden ($206,300, FWD-MID) — 19 points. Break-even: 68

Crowden has a highest score of 72 and a break-even of 68. His price fell $16,000 on the weekend and is set to tumble again. You’ll have to be content with his $90,000 profit.

Tim Kelly ($429,200, MID) — 48 points. Break-even: 120

Understandable if you want to hold the mature-age Cat after his first average return of the year, but he might have peaked considering this score will sit in his price cycle for a few weeks. An upgrade to his Geelong teammate Patrick Dangerfield is appealing or you could even look at Jack Macrae to improve your bye structure if you have the money in the bank.

Tim Kelly had his poorest return of the season against Essendon.

Cam Rayner ($283,700, FWD-MID) — 55 points. Break-even: 80

Rayner has scored more than 60 only once in the past five weeks and the time has come to upgrade the No. 1 draft pick. Players such as Dustin Martin and Luke Parker should be in your sights.

Paddy Dow ($288,700, MID) — 51 points. Break-even: 63

With an average of 53 and a break-even of 63, the No. 3 draft pick has made all the money he will. The only reason to hold him is his favourable Round 12 bye.

Billy Gowers ($282,900, FWD) — 45 points. Break-even: 69

Gowers has been a solid money-maker to this point of the season and unless you need him to supplement your forwards during the byes, you could pull the trigger on him this week.

Riley Bonner ($299,800, DEF) — 48 points. Break-even: 73

Bonner’s price is back below $300,000 and with the Power having a bye this week it is the perfect time to move him on. His five-round average is only 57.6.

Jack Henry ($294,500, FWD) — 56 points. Break-even: 87

Henry and the Cats have a bye in Round 14 when many popular selections will be unavailable. With few forward rookie downgrades available, consider using any bank you have built up to upgrade him.

TRADE SOON

Jeremy Finlayson ($334,800, DEF-MID) — 62 points. Break-even: 79

Finlayson is a 50-50 trade prospect this week. The Giants have a bye in Round 13, so you need to decide whether you’ll need him as cover in defence or midfield before his price falls further.

Andrew Brayshaw ($271,500, MID) — 49 points. Break-even: 57

Brayshaw isn’t a pressing issue in the midfield and most of the 55,000 teams who have the No. 2 draft pick will have him on their bench. Deal with other problems first.

Willie Rioli ($319,000, FWD) — 64 points. Break-even: 60

Rioli’s price has kept rising thanks to his season-best 109 in Round 7, but he’s almost reached his price peak.

HOLD

Tom Doedee ($355,500, DEF) — 91 points. Break-even: 68

Doedee’s best return since Round 5 and it came at a perfect time for coaches needing defensive cover from the Crows defender. He has a Round 14 bye and it would be wise to hold him until then after this effort.

Ed Richards ($252,500, DEF) — 57 points. Break-even: 25

Richards is doing enough to continue making cash and will assist you with fielding a full team during the last two rounds of the byes. Keep him on your defensive bench.

Lachlan Murphy ($198,800, DEF) — 51 points. Break-even: 6

Murphy still has a low break-even and with injuries mounting at the Crows could be set for an extended run in the senior team.

Zac Giles-Langdon ($220,700, FWD) — 59 points. Break-even: 24

Giles-Langdon hasn’t made enough money to be cashed in yet. Keep him on your forward bench until his break-even and average of 54 meet.

Nick Holman ($306,600, MID) — 122 points. Break-even: 13

A brilliant effort from Holman in China which crushed his break-even and put him on target to reach $400,000. He’s shaping as one of the rookies of the year and will carry you through the bye rounds. Be aware he’s missing this week due to the Suns’ early bye.

Matt Guelfi ($215,700, FWD) — 61 points. Break-even: 6

Guelfi returned to the Bombers’ team against Geelong with 14 possessions, five marks and a goal. This score appears about the range we can expect from him most weeks.

Bayley Fritsch ($338,100 FWD) — 87 points. Break-even: 19

Has played further up the ground since returning to the Melbourne team, reflected in a three-round average of 83. Could get to $400k if he can keep this up. Start on the field with confidence.

Jack Higgins ($273,300 FWD-MID) — 0 points. Break-even: 36

Was a late out against the Eagles — and look what happened. Hopefully Dimma sees the error of his ways.

Jack Higgins is a good chance to return to the Richmond line-up this week.

Ben Ronke ($271,600, FWD) — 71 points. Break-even: -27

Another solid return from Ronke and his price jumped by $56,000. He has an average of 87 and you can confidently start him on the ground in your forward line.

Nick Coffield ($250,100, DEF-MID) — 47 points. Break-even: 40

Coffield is going to offer coverage until the last round of the byes and his break-even is still achievable. He’s not a huge scorer, but he might provide enough points for a league win in Round 12 or 13.

Tom Cole ($272,500, DEF) — 62 points. Break-even: 67

In three of his five matches this year, Cole has equalled his break-even score of 67 or managed better. Most coaches would only have bought him a few weeks ago and moving him on so soon wouldn’t be wise. `

Jaidyn Stephenson ($334,200, FWD-MID) — 84 points. Break-even: 69

Collingwood fans must be excited by the potential Stephenson has shown in his first year and he should be a contender for the Rising Star award. He’s averaging almost 70 and has a friendly Round 12 bye.

David Mirra ($216,500, DEF) — 89 points. Break-even: -29

In a forgettable outing for the Hawks, Mirra returned to the senior team with 24 possessions and eight marks. With a negative break-even, he’s going to make plenty of cash for at least the next month.

BUBBLE BOYS

Isaac Cumming ($123,900, DEF) — 16 points. Break-even: -5

Those who brought Cumming in after a promising debut would have been frustrated to see him kept to eight possessions. He’s unlikely to be a popular trade option as a result.

Ed Phillips ($123,900, MID) — 49 points. Break-even: -61

Phillips was unable to back up his impressive debut score, but he shapes as one of the standout mid-season cash cows. Don’t judge him too harshly on his second game.

Dylan Clarke at Essendon training.

Ed Phillips will play his third game this weekend. Picture: Michael Klein

ONE-GAMERS

Tim Smith ($123,900, FWD) — 91 points. Break-even: -107

Smith returned to the Demons’ team for the first time this year with 18 disposals, five marks, five tackles and nine hit-outs. He has Cam Pedersen breathing down his neck for the same role but is worth keeping an eye on in game two.

Jacob Heron ($102,400, DEF) — 54 points. Break-even: -46

Heron made a fast start on debut but was quiet in the second half. He’s not a player you should bring in early especially given Gold Coast’s bye this weekend, but he will appeal if he can maintain his place in Stuart Dew’s side.

Jordan Ridley ($123,900, DEF) — 76 points. Break-even: -77

Ridley had 25 possessions and seven marks in a superb debut against the Cats. He’s one of several rookies who appear set for an extended run in the Essendon team — if Michael Hurley doesn’t take his spot.

Dylan Clarke ($123,900, MID-FWD) — 34 points. Break-even: 7

The VFL’s leading disposal-winner before earning his debut, Clarke was quiet against the Cats. His superb form in the state league should earn him unless one more opportunity to press his senior claims.

Bailey Rice ($123,900, DEF) — 55 points. Break-even: — 35

Rice produced some assured efforts in his first game for St Kilda and is among the players worth keeping a close eye on this week. If he goes close to 60 again, you might want to bring him in. But you’ll need to be mindful of his tricky Round 14 bye too.

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