SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for round 7 of the 2023 AFL season
Top captain picks, rookie ratings, the players you need to factor into your trade plans and more. Get the inside stats from SuperCoach Plus to give your team the edge this week.
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It’s been a challenging year in KFC SuperCoach with injuries and misfortune derailing best-laid trade plans.
But as the saying goes, when the going gets tough, the tough get SuperCoach Plus.
SuperCoach Plus is a treasure trove of stats and tools to help you make the best KFC SuperCoach calls. Access See Break Evens, price and score projections for every player, an updated injury list, bye planner and lots more. And SuperCoach Plus subscribers can see live KFC SuperCoach scores for every AFL game in the 2023 season.
And you get exclusive weekly analysis articles just like this one!
Here are 11 nuggets to help your team this week.
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1. OH, ERROL
Not much went right for Sydney on Saturday night, and Errol Gulden wasn’t the only Swan who will want to move on quickly. But his 79,000 KFC SuperCoach owners are still hurting from his 47-point return – the third-lowest score of his 49-game career. Gulden recorded 16 disposals – all of them kicks, but just eight of them hit the target. Gulden lost 13.5 points from his first seven acts of the game, when points were at a premium as the Cats bolted to a big lead. Across the game he lost a total of 24.5 points from negative acts including four free kicks against. He was also off target in front of goal, kicking 0.3 while also failing to register a score assist. Gulden lost $20,100 after lockout and is now priced at $469,800 – $2200 under his round 1 starting price.
2. OH, SHEEZ
The most popular player in KFC SuperCoach also had a quiet round 6, with Harry Sheezel falling under 100 points for the first time in his brief AFL career. He went into the game against Gold Coast under an injury cloud and played like it, finishing with just 11 disposals, 174 metres gained, three intercept possessions and 53 KFC SuperCoach points. With Aaron Hall back in the side, Sheezel went forward for the first time this season and spent 49 per cent of game time in that role. He still increased in value by $7200 and is now worth $438,800. Sheezel’s Break Even jumped to 99, but SuperCoach Plus projects he will bounce back with a score of 100 against Melbourne this week. If he can hit that score for the next two weeks his BE will drop back into the 50s to restart his cash generation.
Only 2 handball-receives for Harry Sheezel last round after having 18 and 21 in his previous two games. #SuperCoach#AFLFantasy
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) April 25, 2023
3. ROOKIE PAIN
Melbourne forwards Kade Chandler and Jacob van Rooyen delivered some relief with 80-plus scores on Monday night, but round 6 was a tough one on the rookie front with popular cheapies Conor McKenna (57 points), Darcy Wilmot (39), Lachie Cowan (35), Matt Johnson (35) and Harry Rowston (27) all failing to fire. The biggest disaster was a knee injury to Sydney cheapie Matt Roberts, who was subbed out with just 19 points to his name. Sydney is yet to reveal an injury update but after the game coach John Longmire said Roberts, who had just been traded into more than 52,000 KFC SuperCoach teams, had hurt his medial ligament and will miss “a few weeks”. Roberts did rise $24,700 in value after eclipsing his -22 Break Even, but now joins inactive rookies Charlie Constable (61.7 per cent ownership) and Campbell Chesser (27.4 per cent) on many benches – not ideal on the eve of upgrade season.
4. ROOKIE TRADE GUIDE
Several of those rookies are now on the chopping block as coaches consider who to cash in to bring in one or more of this week’s standout bubble boys Seamus Mitchell ($123,900 DEF/FWD, -75 Break Even), Corey Wagner ($117,300 DEF/MID, -36 BE) and Sam Sturt ($123,900 FWD, -28 BE) – and potentially grab a fallen premium to boost their teams for round 7. The key to trading rookies at the right time to watch their Break Even – the score they need to hit to maintain their price. In round 6 Hawk Cam Mackenzie had a BE in the 80s and scored just 48 points, resulting in a $18,200 price drop – not what we want from our cash cows! So who should we trade? Here’s our quick guide to the most popular cheapies.
READY TO GO
Cam Mackenzie (Haw) $245,100 MID
Ownership: 26.8 per cent | Average: 57.5 | Break Even: 79
Lachie Cowan (Carl) $204,800 DEF
Ownership: 48.5 per cent | Average: 44.7 | Break Even: 41
ALMOST MAXED OUT
(Not urgent trades but can go if they work for your trade plans)
Conor McKenna (Bris) $302,600 DEF
Ownership: 55 per cent | Average: 71 | Break Even: 62
Darcy Wilmot (Bris) $251,600 DEF/MID
Ownership: 52 per cent | Average: 57.5 | Break Even: 38
Reuben Ginbey (WC) $288,900 DEF/MID
Ownership: 89 per cent | Average: 69.7 | Break Even: 53
Oskar Baker (WB) $258,500 MID
Ownership: 38.2 per cent | Average: 58.7 | Break Even: 37
HOLD
Will Ashcroft (Bris) $345,900 MID
Ownership: 78.2 per cent | Average: 77.2 | Break Even: 51
Fergus Greene (Haw) $273,500 FWD
Ownership: 45.3 per cent | Average: 59.8 | Break Even: 4
Esava Ratugolea (Geel) $305,700 RUC/FWD
Ownership: 30.6 per cent | Average: 64 | Break Even: 13
Kade Chandler (Melb) $297,200 FWD
Ownership: 29.4 per cent | Average: 75.7 | Break Even: 30
Jacob van Rooyen (Melb) $216,300 FWD
Ownership: 28.2 per cent | Average: 68.5 | Break Even: -8
Mattaes Phillipou (StK) $261,800 MID
Ownership: 45 per cent | Average: 58.8 | Break Even: 44
Oliver Hollands (Carl) $272,100 MID
Ownership: 26.8 per cent | Average: 61.7 | Break Even: 31
Alwyn Davey (Ess) $211,900 MID/FWD
Ownership: 53.6 per cent | Average: 51.6 | Break Even: 33
5. EAGLE TAKES OFF
One cash cow you wouldn’t consider trading – if you were one of the 19,000 owners smart enough to pick him this season – is Oscar Allen. The key forward has booted at least two goals in every match (16 in total for the season) to average 80.8 KFC SuperCoach points and hit $373,300 after round 6 – a $163,100 jump from his starting price. And there is more money to make. Allen has a BE of 30 this round, and if he can keep hitting the scoreboard SuperCoach Plus projects he’ll reach almost $450,000 by the Eagles’ round 14 bye.
6. SERONG SO RIGHT
Speaking of players most SuperCoaches missed, Fremantle’s Caleb Serong is enjoying a long-anticipated breakout season. The Dockers are struggling in a number of areas but Serong has been a clear standout, averaging a career-high 33 disposals, 15 contested possessions, eight clearances, six tackles and 116 KFC SuperCoach points – a jump of 25 points from his 2022 average. Take out a quiet round 1 and he is averaging 124.6 with three scores over 130. Serong’s price has climbed more than $95,000 to $594,700, and he’s set to soar well over $600k with a BE of 66 this week. With an ownership of just over 9500, he is one of the best point of different picks of the season – and a lot more players will have to start thinking about the fifth-ranked midfielder in KFC SuperCoach.
7. FALLEN PREMO WATCH
Smart KFC SuperCoaches are always on the lookout for proven scorers who have dropped in value – or are about to. One former fantasy gun set for a massive price drop is Brisbane’s Jarryd Lyons, who has been used as the substitute in his only two games this year in round 5 and 6, returning scores of 19 and 48 to enter round 7 with a whopping Break Even of 239, the highest in the competition. SuperCoach Plus projects a score of 56 this week and a $83,100 price drop. Lyons appears to no longer be in Brisbane’s best 23, ruling him out as a KFC SuperCoach option, but some serious trade candidates are also set for big price falls in the coming weeks. Max Gawn returned after three weeks out on Anzac Eve and scored 98, but with his score of 0 in round 2 in his price cycle he shed $54,100 and has a BE of 228 this week. SuperCoach Plus projects he will be under $500k after the next lockout and will bottom out around $470k a couple of weeks after that. Jack Steele also took a big price hit (-$48,600) after his return game and will get a lot cheaper if he can’t hit his 169 Break Even against the Power on Friday night. Factor him into your trade plans when he hits a projected price of $480k in round 9.
8. WHAT’S UP WITH WINES?
One proven star who is already in major bargain territory is Ollie Wines, but we would want to see a serious turnaround in form before considering him in KFC SuperCoach. After averaging 100-plus for the past three seasons, Wines is averaging 70.8 points per game this year, a drop of almost 35 from 2022. In round 6 Wines attended 52 per cent of centre bounces – behind Connor Rozee (69 per cent), Jason Horne-Francis (59), Willem Drew (55) and Zak Butters (55). Last season he averaged 71 per cent CBAs, the most of any non-ruckman at the Power. As a result he is averaging his fewest disposals since 2013 (discounting shortened games in 2020) and a career-high five clangers. His KFC SuperCoach price has hit a rock bottom $410,100 – a fall of $170,600 from his starting value.
9. ENGLISH STREAK
Tim English’s remarkable season continued with 131 points in round 6, his sixth score of 130 or more in as many matches. He’s the first player to do that over the opening six rounds of a season and matches incredible runs by KFC SuperCoach legends Gary Ablett Jr and Max Gawn at their peak. The record for 130-plus scores is held by Patrick Dangerfield, who put together nine in a row from rounds 9-18 in 2017 (his lowest score in that run was 141). English comes up against a Hawthorn side in round 7 which has conceded 100 points to just one ruckman this season (Todd Goldstein – 115). But was we saw in round 6, these type of records don’t mean much for English.
10. CAPTAINS CORNER
If you value history as a guide to picking your captain in KFC SuperCoach, it might pay to wait until the final game of the round to lock in your C this round – but even then you’ll face a dilemma. In one corner is Nick Daicos, who has played Adelaide only once in his young AFL career – but in that game he had 40 disposals and scored 163 KFC SuperCoach points. He’s also coming off back-to-back 40-disposal games and scores of 128 and 145. In the other corner is Rory Laird, who has a five-round average of 123.8 and has produced scores of 154, 144 and 185 in his past three games against Collingwood. The standout options earlier in the round are Marcus Bontempelli (fresh off a 182 and with an average of 149.6 in his past four against Hawthorn) and Clayton Oliver (average 143 in his past three against the Kangaroos), while Saints ruckman Rowan Marshall averages 139.7 in his past three against Port Adelaide.
11. DANGER ZONE
It’s been a long time since Patrick Dangerfield was a POD in KFC SuperCoach but his 6000 owners are enjoying a late career resurgence from the new Cats captain, who registered 144 points against the Swans last round – his fourth straight 100-plus score. And he could be in for another big return this weekend – in his past three games against Essendon, Dangerfield has put up scores of 155, 184 and 139. Another player who has a great record against their round 7 opponent is Jacob Hopper. In six career matches against Gold Coast the Richmond recruit averages 29 disposals – clearly his highest return against any opponent – with KFC SuperCoach scores in his past three encounters of 129, 134 and 125.
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