SuperCoach Investor: The factors you must consider to achieve finals success

It all comes down to the next four weeks in SuperCoach. And if you’re serious about success, SuperCoach Investor Dan Begala says you need to put time into opposition analysis and be prepared to take a captaincy risk.

Bachar Houli has a dream run in the last four weeks, playing at his preferred ground — the MCG. Picture: AAP Image/David Crosling.

The scent of finals football is swirling in the air.

Yes, we may be entrenched in another gloomy Melbourne winter, but that hasn’t stopped the groundskeepers from dusting off the ride-on mowers in preparation for the first week of SuperCoach finals.

It’s the most riveting time on the football calendar and the period of the year that will distinguish the contenders from the pretenders.

There will be heroes. There will be villains.

The SuperCoach Investor, Daniel Begala, shares his investment philosophies for triumphing at the business end of a long and arduous season.

Jack Macrae could present a captaincy POD if Max Gawn fails to hit 130 this round. Picture: Michael Klein.

“P” IS FOR PREPARATION

Preparation. Preparation. Did I mention preparation?

The modus operandi of many coaches — including yours truly — is rankings success above all else.

The ranking pursuit, however, takes a well-earned break over the next month as we focus all attention on the art of opposition analysis.

It is an art, truly, and should be the core of any premiership aspirant’s mindset.

You will need to spend every available moment this week critiquing your opposition with the aim of identifying any deficiencies that you can seek to exploit.

Step into your opponent’s shoes. Try them on for size. Exploit them.

You will need to know their every move. You will need to be ready for anything, literally anything, that they throw at you and that is why preparation is key.

Forecast their scoring capacity — both their upside and downside — and single out any key match-ups that look certain to shape the tie.

Critique their captaincy. Critique their loopholes. Critique their flexibility.

If there are any points-of-difference that loom as a scoring threat, i.e. Rowan Marshall (16 per cent ownership), it may be astute to bite the bullet and acquire their services — irrespective of price — to thwart the scoring upside of your opposition.

It’s not fancy, but much like a “tag”, it works.

If the bout is trending in your opposition’s favour and the tie is likely to be distinguished by a small margin, why not throw caution to the wind and slap the captaincy armband on Jack Macrae (Projected: 149) or Josh Dunkley (Projected: 147) if Max Gawn’s 130 doesn’t cut the mustard?

It’s ambitious, but if you’re staring down the barrel of defeat, these are the types of calculated risks that will distinguish a match-up and etch your name in the halls of league folklore.

PLAYING ON: WHO IS FIGHTING FOR THEIR CAREERS AT YOUR CLUB?

SUPERCOACH: THE FULL TRADE GUIDE FOR ROUND 20

HOMECOMING: WHY BETTS’ RETURN WOULD MAKE SENSE

Bachar Houli has a dream run in the last four weeks, playing at his preferred ground — the MCG. Picture: AAP Image/David Crosling.

TRADING PLACES

Trades are like gold bullion at this time of year.

They’re pivotal to each and every league clash.

Anyone, literally anyone, can win the SuperCoach Finals if they’ve come equipped with some serious trade ammunition … even the team which finished eighth.

There is bound to be waves of carnage in the coming weeks — there always is — so it pays to be ultra strategic with the use and application of your dwindling trade reserves.

This week’s conundrum affecting The Begala Brigade is the best and most effective way to jettison the injured Luke Ryan ($437K, DEF) from my side following his untimely hamstring injury during their clash with the Western Bulldogs.

Yes, the allure of a fit-and-firing Lachie Whitfield ($520K, DEF) is hard to resist, but it’s likely to encompass the pressures of a downgrade to ensure sufficient liquidity is generated to close the Whitfield gap.

With our finite reserve of trades (three, in my case), I will be forced to overlook Whitfield and instead acquire Bachar Houli ($483K, DEF) as a “sideways” trade.

Live stream the 2019 Toyota AFL Premiership Season on KAYO SPORTS. Every match of every round. Live & anytime on your TV or favourite device. Get your 14 day free trial >

Some players — particularly Whitfield — are vital to a SuperCoach finals series, but in this case, deploying two of my remaining three trades is too risky to the overall balance of my team, given the lack of depth and quality of my bench coverage.

If you’re boasting four or more trades, Whitfield is a must-have, despite the possibility George Hewett (SYD) will likely tag him this week.

With a grand final scheduled against the lowly-ranked Gold Coast, he — and to a lesser extent — Jeremy Cameron ($430K, FWD) have all the hallmarks of a massive “Norm Smith Medal” performance that could be pivotal to your league success.

From now until season’s end, I will only be trading “sideways” with the expectation that injuries, form and match-ups will dictate the use of my last two trades for Rounds 21, 22 and 23 (grand final).

It’s not exactly exciting, but history tells us that doughnuts — although tasty — rarely form the vital ingredients of a successful SuperCoach finals series.

Trade wisely. Trade pragmatically. Trade to win.