SuperCoach Investor: How do we cope if Geelong star Patrick Dangerfield misses North Melbourne game with injury?
More than 144,000 SuperCoaches will be sweating on the possible absence of the game’s most popular player Patrick Dangerfield. But as the SuperCoach Investor explains, his knee injury could represent a great opportunity.
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Our war chests are building and the trades are flowing, but as always, there’s a curve ball looming which could present forward line carnage this week.
His name is Patrick Dangerfield — the most popular player in the game — and the stock market will be keeping a close eye on his availability at the Round 8 selection table.
The conservatives among us will “hold”, but if you’re hellbent on rankings, there exists a lucrative opportunity to differentiate yourself from the herd.
This conundrum — plus much, much more — is the subject of The SuperCoach Investor’s portfolio theory for the week.
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DANGER SIGNS
We’re well aware of Patrick Dangerfield’s unheralded recuperative powers, but the injury sustained to his knee against the Bombers looked a doozy.
To his credit, Dangerfield played out the game but looked a shadow of his former self with frequent trips to the doldrums of the ‘G for medical treatment.
The result?
26 SuperCoach points and growing concern that he may miss on Sunday.
Dangerfield is a staple for the vast majority of sides — 72 per cent — but now we’re posed with ultimate conundrum.
Hold or fold?
Most conservative pundits, if not all, will hold Dangerfield with respite to be provided in the form of Jack Petruccelle and Matthew Parker.
If you’re chasing rankings, however, this is your moment.
It’s time to “short” Patrick Dangerfield (if he is not named…).
Dangerfield’s breakeven is 198 and the initial forecasts suggest his share price could plummet as low as $448K following the Cats’ Round 13 bye.
Buy low, sell high — that’s the aim of the game, right?
It’s a risky trade strategy, but if you’re behind the rankings Eight ball, it’s time to act contrarian and deviate from the forces of the market.
Most teams — including yours truly — are staring down the barrel for the Round 13 bye with our stars (and rookies) from Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane, West Coast and Melbourne all scheduled to miss.
You can be forgiven if you’ve had your head in the sand over the last month, but it’s time to start tailoring every trade decision — whether it’s up or down — for the benefit of your side during the byes.
Travis Boak ($580K, Average: 119.7 SC) — who has been somewhat unobtainable — looms as the perfect candidate to replace Dangerfield and would ensure an immediate points uplift versus the likes of Petruccelle and Parker.
He’ll help maintain the scoring momentum of your portfolio, protect you during the Round 13 bye and provides immediate reinforcement in the absence of Danger.
There’s also a handy bunch of PODs (Caleb Daniel, David Mundy and Jeremy Cameron) who may also rise to the occasion as captain of our forward lines.
If you’re one of the 13 per cent of sides that boast the services of rookie revelation, Reilly O’Brien, he could be the perfect source of capital to replace the returning Dangerfield in Round 14 when the Crows face their bye.
O’Brien, if he retains his spot, will be priced at $468K before his byes.
It’s pie-in-sky type stuff and fraught with “Danger”, but if you’re entrenched at the pointy end of the rankings, pull the trigger!
ROOKIE RESTRUCTURING
The Dangerfield dilemma, although catastrophic, may not even eventuate.
In the meantime, it’s essential that we continue to harvest the sizeable capital gains we’ve made on the penny stocks (“rookies”) we’ve been watering since Round 1.
Investors will continually be enticed to prematurely trade the likes of Darcy Moore ($370K), Sam Walsh ($453K) or Willem Drew ($322K) for an underpriced star.
It’s not madness, but there are plenty of other priorities we should address before we move any of the abovementioned names from our sides.
Moore, as an example, is playing All-Australian type football while Willem Drew is expected to reap the benefits of enhanced midfield opportunity in the absence of Ollie Wines and Brad Ebert.
Compile a list of rookies. Check their break evens. Study their form guide.
It’s time to rank them.
Your priority — if you’re chasing sustained and long-term success — should be to “short” the least appetising rookies left within your side.
Petruccelle (BE 59), Jordan Clark (BE 55), Sam Collins (BE 63) and Michael Gibbons (BE 50) should be firmly in your trade sights.
They’ve proven unreliable, reached their breakeven thresholds and no longer occupy positions in your starting 22, anyway.
If you’re patient and can hold these proven rookies longer, you will be forever indebted by an enhanced team valuation and greater scoring certainty should any of your premiums unexpectedly miss.
Patience (and SuperCoach) is a virtue.
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