SuperCoach Formguide: Round 18 trade tips from Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako
Studying the fixture can deliver a crucial edge when making final trades, and Champion Data’s SuperCoach expert has done the hard work for us. Plus key rookie and captain advice.
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It’s a SuperCoach’s worst nightmare. One of your premium midfielders suffers an injury in the opening minutes of a game without troubling the scorers.
That was the case for owners of Stephen Coniglio after he lasted just five minutes against Richmond. It was a double whammy for those that had him as captain, as you would have had a doughnut – a catastrophic result! His price also took a decent hit, plummeting by $38,500.
As the eighth-most selected premium midfielder in the competition, he must be replaced this round after the Giants ruled him out for the remaining home-and-away matches.
Finding a suitable replacement shouldn’t be a problem, as there are a host of viable options to choose from. But when deciding upon the best option, looking at the remaining six games from a draw difficulty perspective could give you the upper hand.
If we rank teams based on their remaining games, Geelong, GWS and St Kilda have five games against current bottom-10 sides – the equal-most. Fremantle is one of several teams with four games against these opponents, while Adelaide is one of five teams with three. Collingwood has one of the toughest runs home, with just two matches against bottom-10 teams – the Magpies play four top-eight sides.
A sideways trade to one of Coniglio’s teammates is a definite option, with Tim Taranto the prime target. The young Giant has thrived with added responsibility in the midfield this season, posting career-highs for both disposals and points per game. Expect his numbers to get better in the run home, and the fact the Giants play the Suns in the final home-and-away round — otherwise known as the SuperCoach grand final — adds even more to his appeal.
If you’re currently without Nat Fyfe, then this is the perfect opportunity to pounce on the SuperCoach gun. He averages 123 points against bottom-10 sides, which is the second-most of any permanent midfielder outside the injured Josh Kelly (131). Fyfe is also coming off a huge 154-point haul.
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If funds are an issue, then Elliot Yeo is a decent alternative. With four remaining games against bottom-10 teams, he averages 106 points against these sides and also boasts eight scores of 110-plus in 2019. The Eagles finish the season a clash against the Hawks at Optus Stadium – a venue where he averages 108 points.
REMAINING GAMES v BOTTOM-10 TEAMS
Five — Geelong, GWS Giants, St Kilda
Four — Sydney, Fremantle, Brisbane Lions, Essendon, West Coast
Three — North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Melbourne, Adelaide
Two — Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Collingwood
ROOKIE WATCH
There are options aplenty this week in terms of “bubble boys”, with Isaac Quaynor, Derek Eggmolesse-Smith and Kyle Dunkley all set to increase in value if they play their third matches this weekend.
If you’re looking for a downgrade target in defence, then opting for Eggmolesse-Smith instead of Quaynor is a smart way to save some money. Both are averaging similar numbers and there’s a $50,900 price difference between the two. That money will come in handy elsewhere.
Dunkley is the midfield option to target this round, but his scores have been less than inspiring – scoring 58 (including -2 in the second half) and 41. In his last match against the Bulldogs, he managed only five disposals and one tackle.
Picking GWS one-gamer, Ian “Bobby” Hill instead of Dunkley is an option I am considering myself, as he provides far greater flexibility as a mid-forward DPP. He was a shining light for the Giants last round – finishing with 15 disposals, three goals and seven score involvements. With the Giants’ injury list growing by the day, Hill could be set for an extended stay in the side.
Collingwood’s second debutant of 2019 John Noble was solid on his AFL debut against the Eagles, finishing with 18 disposals, 14 uncontested possessions and four intercepts. A mature-age player, his job security is a little shaky though, as Taylor Adams is expected to return to the side for the clash against his former side this week.
In terms of prospective cash cows, Will Snelling is a player that continues to push for selection at Essendon, scoring 138 and 101 points in his past two games in the VFL. Josh Worsfold could spring a surprise at the selection table by handing the native South Australian his Essendon debut against the Crows on Friday night.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Adelaide vs Essendon
Matt Crouch found plenty of the ball when he last played against Essendon in Round 1, 2018 – scoring 105 points from 41 disposals. Zach Merrett finished with 35 disposals and 120 points in his last full match against Adelaide, in Round 4, 2017.
Richmond vs Port Adelaide
A move into the midfield has resulted in a huge spike in Shai Bolton’s numbers, scoring 122 and 112 points in his past two games. Robbie Gray has been a key contributor over the past two rounds, returning 110 and 107 points.
Carlton vs Gold Coast
Sam Walsh notched his fifth ton of the season last round, finishing with 28 disposals and 111 points. David Swallow has reached three figures in six games, averaging 88 points – ranked fourth at the club.
GWS Giants vs Collingwood
Lachie Whitfield didn’t miss a beat in his return from injury last round, gathering 33 disposals and 101 points against the Tigers. Steele Sidebottom dominated in the win over the Eagles, finishing with 33 disposals and 119 points of his own.
Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne
With an average of 124 points over the past three rounds, Dayne Zorko’s price has boomed by $61,400. Ben Cunnington has suffered consecutive price drops after returning 89 and 54 points.
Fremantle vs Sydney
Nat Fyfe averages 123 points against bottom-10 opposition – ranked fourth in the competition. Jake Lloyd averages 30 disposals, 20 uncontested possessions and 112 points against these sides – ranked No.1 at Sydney.
Geelong vs Hawthorn
Gary Ablett has dominated against the Hawks since 2013, averaging 140 points – the most of any player in the competition. Grant Birchall has averaged 27 disposals, three rebound-50s and 100 points against the Cats over this period.
Melbourne vs West Coast
Max Gawn scored 144 points including 19 hitouts-to-advantage when these sides last met in Round 9. Elliot Yeo led the was for the Eagles, finishing with 26 disposals, 12 tackles and 136 points.
St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs
Rowan Marshall is the fifth-most expensive player in the competition on the back of a career-high average of 110 points. Josh Dunkley enjoyed a career-best match on the weekend – finishing with 24 disposals, 15 tackles and 202 points.
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