SuperCoach finals guide: Tactics, trade tips to help you win in week one

SuperCoach finals are here, so for many it’s do or die this weekend. Here’s how the finals work, tips on strategy and who to trade in this week.

Patrick Dangerfield during a Geelong Cats training session.

The sun isn’t shining and there isn’t much of a smell about the fresh-cut grass, but don’t be fooled — it’s finals time in SuperCoach.

The four-week finals series in private leagues kicks off this week with qualifying (if you were lucky enough to finish in the top four) and elimination finals.

That means you need to think strategically.

HOW THE FINALS WORK

The SuperCoach finals follow the same format as the AFL finals: first v fourth and second v third with the winners earning a week off and losers facing the winners of fifth v eighth and sixth v seventh next week. The losers of those last two elimination finals will be planning for next year.

Note that there is also a minor premiership up for grabs for teams that finished 9th-16th in 18-team leagues, so there is still plenty for play for!

If you have the double chance, it might be wise to hold off on trades. If it’s do or die, now is the time to pull the trigger.

OPPOSITION RESEARCH

Like any good AFL coach, take a close look at your opposition when planning your moves this week — and over the weekend.

Do they have a gun that you don’t? Maybe you can trade that player in to cancel out their advantage.

Track the live scores over the weekend to see how your match-up is playing out and you can make calls based on who your rival has as captain (you might want to match or go for something different depending on if you’re ahead or behind) and any late trick they’re trying to pull.

Patrick Dangerfield is primed for a big month.

THE RUN HOME

It also pays to look at the fixture for the final four rounds, which could have a big impact on who scores well from here.

For example, you might be tempted to trade out frustrating forward Jeremy Cameron but remember the Giants face bottom-10 sides Sydney, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast in their final four games.

If you’re worried about Matt Crouch’s form, it’s worth noting that he will face the midfields of St Kilda, West Coast, Collingwood and the Bulldogs in the next four weeks.

EXPERT COLUMN: HOW TO REPLACE STRUGGLING STARS

TRADE GUIDE: WHAT TO DO WITH LUKE RYAN

INVESTOR: TIME TO EMPLOY A SUPERCOACH TAG

Teams with SuperCoach-friendly fixtures include St Kilda (Adelaide, Fremantle, Carlton and the Swans) — get on Rowan Marshall — and Geelong (Fremantle, North Melbourne, Brisbane and Carlton), with two of those four games, including Round 23 — SuperCoach grand final day — at GMHBA Stadium, where most of their stars have good records.

Then there’s the Tigers, who have hit form and don’t leave the MCG for the rest of the season. Anyone prepared to take a risk on Tom Lynch at $435,400?

RUNNING HOT

You don’t gain anything from trading in a player now who is ranked near the top of their position for the whole season if they don’t produce over the last month. We are looking for August specialists!

Champion Data’s SuperCoach expert Fantasy Freako has crunched the numbers to find the leading point scorers from Rounds 20-23 in each of the past three seasons.

Atop of the list is none other than Patrick Dangerfield with an average of 136.9. Considering he’s currently the most-owned player in the competition, there is a strong chance that your opponent will also own him.

Total #SuperCoach points scored from Rnds 20-23 since 2016 - Dangerfield (1,505), T. Mitchell (1,415) and M. Crouch (1,407). @ThePhantomSC

— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) July 30, 2019

Jack Macrae (129.3) is next best and he’s currently the fourth-most selected midfielder in the league. He is also in red-hot form and has topped 120 in six of his past seven games. That includes exceeding 140 on four occasions. Macrae also has an excellent record against this round’s opponent Brisbane, scoring 162, 157 and 135 points in his past three appearances.

Brodie Grundy (123.1) and Patrick Cripps (122.8) rank third and fourth respectively for their output during this period. But they are firmly entrenched in most SuperCoach teams, so similar to Dangerfield, you opponent this round will more than likely own the duo.

Rounding out the top five is Jack Steele with a return of 117.6. He is the ultimate POD and has an ownership of just 2061 at the time of writing. Like the Saints, he’s finding form at the right time of the season, reaching three figures in three of his past four games. This includes scoring a season-high 121 on the weekend against Melbourne.

While you may not go out of your way to trade a player like Steele into your team, if you’re working with a budget under $500k, then you could do a lot worse.

Below are the leading scores from Rounds 20-23 since 2016;

SUPERCOACH FINALS STARS (2017-19)

Patrick Dangerfield — Matches 11, Average 136.9

Jack Macrae: — Matches 8, Average: 129.3

Brodie Grundy — Matches: 10, Average 123.1

Patrick Cripps — Matches: 8, Average: 122.8

Jack Steele — Matches: 8, Average: 117.6

Lance Franklin — Matches: 11, Average: 117.5

Lachie Neale — Matches: 11, Average: 117.4

Matt Crouch — Matches 12, Average: 117.3

Adam Treloar — Matches: 8, Average: 117.0

Nat Fyfe — Matches: 6, Average: 115.3

Recruiting Jack Steele would be a brave, and potentially SuperCoach finals-winning, move.

ROOKIE WATCH

SuperCoaches shouldn’t be relying on rookies at this stage of the season. But in saying that, bench cover is vital. Having a player you can call upon in the event of a late withdrawal could be the difference between winning and losing a final.

In defence, Hawthorn premiership hero Grant Birchall should be top of your wish list, albeit at a price over $200k. He is the prototype bench option for the finals series, scoring 87 in each of his two games. Owning Birchall also allows you to potentially loophole him with another defender – an effective tactic used to maximise scoring.

He has tallied 21 and 24 disposals in his two games and is just three games away from celebrating his 250-game milestone against Gold Coast Suns in Round 22. Birchall isn’t the most durable player, so I would avoid playing him as a sixth defender.

Will Snelling is making the most of his opportunities at Essendon.

In the midfield, Bomber Will Snelling stands out after scoring 83 in last round’s win over Gold Coast. He has found a niche for himself in the forward line since coming into the team in Round 18, ranking second at the club for hardball-gets. Trading out teammate Dylan Clarke for Snelling will make you a healthy $198,600, money that can be used to strengthen your team elsewhere.

However, the flexibility offered by Doulton Langlands ($123k mid/forward) trounces Snelling, with the St Kilda youngster impressing in his two games – scoring 66 and 71. Against Melbourne, he finished with 14 disposals, three tackles, four score involvements and one goal. With St Kilda on the rise, he looms as a safe bench option.