SuperCoach analyst Peter Higginbotham on impacts no 3rd man up will have on SuperCoach

SUPERCOACH analyst Peter Higginbotham drills down on the impact the AFL’s ban on the 3rd man up in ruck contests will have in 2017 — and why one man is more valuable than ever.

THERE is a lot we can learn from the Periplaneta insect Genus, referred to by most as the common cockroach.

Many theorise that the cockroach is the one creature most likely to survive an event of nuclear armageddon. Why? Because of its remarkable ability to quickly adapt to changing environmental conditions.

Elite SuperCoach strategists, like the cockroach family, understand the vital importance of quickly adapting to even subtle changes in the fabric and texture of their environment.

For the upcoming season the AFL have forbidden any player from entering a ruck contest as the “3rd man up”. This rule change definitely warrants further exploration.

HOMEWORK: Who to pick and skip at each club

FORMULA: The 10 rules to SuperCoach success

How will its inception change the SuperCoach point scoring capacity of some key 2017 prospects?

It is time for us to adapt.

Max Gawn Picture: Wayne Ludbey

IMPACT ON DOMINANT RUCKMAN

Let us use the SuperCoach 2016 season’s leading leviathan, Max Gawn, as a test case.

In 2016 Gawn averaged a staggering 42.18 hit-outs per game. An average of 14.31 of these were to the advantage of a teammate.

Remembering that only the HOA (hitout to advantage) yields a SuperCoach reward (5 points), Gawn generated roughly 71.55 points per game on hit-outs alone.

Yes — over 60% of Max Gawn’s 2016 average of 118.6 SuperCoach points was generated in hit-outs to advantage.

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Teams have deployed the 3rd man up strategy most aggressively to nullify the effectiveness of the game’s most dominant Rucks. None were as dominant as Gawn, and none were as savaged by the 3rd man.

Full statistical analysis, as can be found in the “Death of The Third Man Up” article in this season’s Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Magazine, will support the hypothesis that Gawn may increase his HOA average by a further two HOA per games in 2017 as a result of this change.

Working off the assumption that Gawn will continue his stunning reign of dominance in 2017 (not a given), his weekly average may be further bloated by 10 SuperCoach points.

With the case of Gawn in mind, one could conclude that all of the leagues most dominant ruckman will come into the 2017 SuperCoach season underpriced.

Mark Blicavs might have a chunk of his average SuperCoach score taken away. Picture: Alison Wynd

IMPACT ON MIDFIELD SELECTIONS

Mark Blicavs accumulated an average of 14.77 SuperCoach points-per-game from hit-outs as the 3rd man up in 2016. A significant 16% of his 2016 average.

Blicavs is by far the most extreme example. However, we need to be cognisant of the impact of this rule change on some lesser known midfield 3rd man up enthusiasts.

Marcus Bontempelli earned 3.85 SuperCoach points per game in hit-outs by going up as the 3rd man. Oliver Wines, 3.85. Nathan Fyfe has been known to thrust himself with enthusiastic abandon into the ruck contest over the years, generating 6 points in HOA from his two 2016 appearances. The list goes on.

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These numbers may appear relatively insignificant to some.

However, does the fact that Bontempelli may have averaged 103.8 and not 107.7 in 2016 without 3rd man up shenanigans provide you food for thought? Does the fact that his 3rd man up hit-outs may have inflated his 2017 price by approximately $22,000 provide you grounds to at least reconsider?

Perhaps it should.

It is also prudent to consider the possibility that these midfielders may have been the recipient and not the proponent of an effective hitout had they not participated in the ruck contest. Perhaps the impact will not be as profound as these numbers suggest?

A DEEPER EXPLORATION

We have explored, albeit in a brevity best suited to online prose, some of the more transparent and obvious 3rd man up impacts.

However, just as the cockroach must seek out even the most obscure advantage to thrive in a changed atmospheric environment, so too must the elite SuperCoach unpack the effects of each rule change in great detail towards achieving a genuine competitive advantage.

In general terms, clubs with a weaker primary Ruckman were the most prolific adopters of the 3rd man up strategy in 2016. It may come as no surprise to many that Port Adelaide, serviced by an underperforming and often absent Matthew Lobbe, lead the competition for 3rd man up utilisation.

Tom Hickey’s hitout to advantage rate is high. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

St. Kilda Football Club was an interesting exception. Despite the robust ruck craft of Tom Hickey, who delivered an impressive 30% of his hit-outs to the advantage of his ground fleet, the Saints employed an aggressive 3rd man up strategy. Over 22% of St Kilda’s total hit-outs were delivered by a 3rd man.

Let’s allow ourselves to fantasise upon an alternate reality for Tom Hickey circa 2016.

We will assume that the 8.3 hit-outs per game delivered by St. Kilda’s 3rd man in 2016 were instead delivered by Hickey. Let’s also assume Hickey maintains his impressive HOA rate of 30%.

In this alternate reality, Hickey adds 12.45 SuperCoach points to his 2016 season average to finish the season with an average of 96.65.

Tom Hickey is not the only emerging goliath set to reap significant dividends my friends.

DARE TO EVOLVE

Yes. A sobering truth applies to every life form when environmental conditions change. Adapt quickly, or perish.

The elimination of the 3rd man up should not be lamented by the serious SuperCoaches — it should be celebrated as a powerful strategic opportunity.

May you feast on this opportunity with cockroach-like fervour in season 2017.

* Peter Higginbotham is co-host of the Jock Reynolds Supercoach Podcast and a key contributor to jockreynolds.com.au. For complete SuperCoach analysis of the 3rd man up rule change and a lot more, secure your copy of the 2017 Jock Reynolds Supercoach magazine here.