SuperCoach AFL: The burning questions of 2024 pre-season answered
Marcus Bontempelli’s price tag. Zac Williams’ fitness. Nick Daicos’ early draw. Opening round. There’s a lot to consider when planning your SuperCoach team for 2024. We’ve answered the toughest pre-season questions to help.
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The first burning questions of 2024 is here.
And there are a lot of SuperCoach questions which need to be asked.
From opening round to Clayton Oliver, Marcus Bontempelli’s price tag to Brodie Grundy and whether we can trust Zac Williams, this is going to be a busy pre-season.
Practice matches and pre-season training will reveal more, but, for now, there are still a lot of unknowns which will shape our teams.
We’ve done our best to answer them and provide some clarity to help those who have already jumped into the team picker.
You can select your side today by signing up to SuperCoach Plus.
Do I pick Clayton Oliver?
It’s a good question and not really one we can answer. Oliver has been dealing with personal and health issues in recent months and had an interrupted pre-season after returning early from Melbourne’s camp in Lorne. He is a freakish talent, overcoming serious hamstring issues to return with a SuperCoach score of 128 in round 22 last year. He then recorded 31 disposals, 10 inside-50s, 10 tackles and 11 clearances as Melbourne almost pipped eventual premier Collingwood in a qualifying final (just ask Steven May). There’s reason to be cautious and just hope Oliver gets back to his best by mid-season and is healthy and well. His teammate Christian Petracca is as reliable as they come with only three scores under 100 last year and a floor of 95. Pick Petracca and try and grab Oliver later in the season if the signs are good.
Can I trust Zac Williams to avoid injury?
Now there is the $216k question. Williams has played 34 games in four seasons since his career best SuperCoach campaign of 2019 (average 101.6). He did not feature at all in 2023 after a pre-season ACL injury and missed a large chunk of 2022 with a serious calf problem. It’d be understandable, considering his history of soft-tissue trouble, if you were unsure about committing. But I think any risk is offset by Williams being close to rookie price. If he can average 80-90 and stay fit for half a season, you can consider your options then on whether he’s a keeper or not. If you want to be extra cautious, watch Carlton’s matches in opening round and round 1 then grab Williams after the Blues’ round 2 bye before his price changes.
Who should I partner with Brodie Grundy?
There seems to be three standout options — Tim English, Max Gawn and Tristan Xerri. And, you can make a compelling argument for each of them. $715k is a huge price to pay for English, but one look back on what he did during 2023 tells you it might be worth it. Six consecutive 130+ scores to start the season, 14 scores of 125 points or higher and only three under 100 (of which one was a 99). It came as no surprise that Gawn’s SuperCoach scoring skyrocketed when Brodie Grundy was dropped to the VFL in round 18. Gawn scored 215 that week against Brisbane and 174 two weeks later, relishing having the ruck to himself again. You save $130k by starting him over English, too. Xerri is the value option of the trio after Todd Goldstein’s move to Essendon. At the start of 2022, when he was the Roos' preferred big man, he went 79, 120 and 81 in consecutive weeks. I can understand the appeal, but will be going with one of the big dogs and trying to avoid using too many trades on my two ruck spots.
Is Marcus Bontempelli too expensive?
The Bulldogs skipper is almost $10k more expensive than the No.2 ranked player for 2024 — his teammate Tim English. And after that, it’s Clayton Oliver at $674k. There are a group of people every year who bemoan why Bontempelli scores so much and will tell you there’s a ‘Bont Bonus’ built into the SuperCoach scoring. But a more accurate description is that he just does so many things — including things that don’t make the stats sheet such as contested tap ons — that boost Bontempelli’s scoring. One thing that works in his favour is the Bulldogs don’t play in opening round. So while Nick Daicos, Christian Petracca and Lachie Neale have an early bye, Bontempelli doesn’t have his bye until round 15. That’ll mean having an extra big gun than many other teams if you start him and it’s why I’m willing to pay top dollar.
What impact should opening round have on your starting team?
We’re all entering the unknown as we work out how to navigate the extra byes early in the season. But it’s important to note that while SuperCoach is not playing round 0, scores will be taken into account for price changes (and available to view for SuperCoach Plus subscribers). Many coaches will use opening round as a trial for potential cash cows and mid-pricers. It’s essentially a try-before-you-buy round. But that doesn’t mean you can just load your team with every player who scores well in round 0. You’ll need to weigh up the byes, how many players you will have missing and whether you will still be covered for best 18 scoring. There will no doubt be must-have rookies and mid-pricers that emerge from opening round, but there will still be a lot of strategy involved and it will be important to be selective.
Nick Daicos has a date with Finn Maginness in round 4. Should I wait until after then to get him?
Let’s play out this scenario. Daicos drops $10k by round 4 when Maginness will sit in his pocket. He then drops another $20k going into his round 5 bye. What do you do then? Arguably the best player in the game is still going to cost more than $600k and he could score 120s every week he’s not in your team. Last season, Daicos scored 120+ in 12 out of 20 matches, with one being the round 21 game when Maginness blanketed him before he was injured. If you look at the Magpies’ early opponents, Daicos scored 81 against Sydney last year (but the Swans have delisted Ryan Clarke), 128 against St Kilda and 151 against Brisbane. If you don’t start Daicos, it might be mid-season before you can get him and you might have to find $600k or more to make it happen. Save yourself the stress and start him. Who knows? He might even have a new plan to shake Finn in round 4.
Is Sam Flanders going to be a tease?
If I remember correctly, we were asking a very similar question last pre-season — albeit with Flanders at $256k. The difference now is we have genuine evidence of just how good he can be as a midfielder. Now, we just need to know that Damien Hardwick is as excited as SuperCoaches were with how Flanders finished last season. For those who need a reminder...Flanders didn’t score less than 81 points in the last 10 rounds, a period in which he averaged 106.1 points. To put that into perspective, Jack Macrae is the most expensive starting forward in 2024 and he averaged 99.9 last season. As long as he hasn’t been squeezed out if Hardwick reinvents the Suns’ on-ball mix, Flanders should be in your starting side — potentially at F1.
Where will Bevo play Jack Macrae?
If SuperCoaches were able to get some insight into the mind of Luke Beveridge, we’d all be better off. Bailey Smith’s re-integration into the middle of the ground was a big reason Jack Macrae’s SuperCoach numbers suffered in 2023. Last season was the first time since 2016 Macrae has averaged less than 100 SuperCoach points — and yes, we are being harsh by not rounding 99.9 up. The silver lining of Smith’s ACL, at least for SuperCoaches, might be that Macrae joins Tom Liberatore and Marcus Bontempelli among the first-choice midfielders again. But with Ryley Sanders impressing in pre-season and James Harmes arriving from Melbourne, maybe not. Macrae will be one of the most important players to monitor in pre-season. If he’s still stuck at half forward or on a wing, consider cheaper alternatives for your forward line.
Is Jordan Ridley really going to benefit from Ben McKay’s arrival?
Make Jordan Ridley great again. David King used the line on SEN radio when assessing the impact McKay will have on Essendon’s defence. You can mount a decent argument Ridley was already a very good SuperCoach player and that it just took Brad Scott a while to work out how to get the best out of him. In the opening seven rounds last season, he averaged 87.4. From round 10 onwards, he averaged 109.2 (and it would have been much higher if he wasn’t injured in round 19). The Bombers now have McKay, Jayden Laverde and potentially Zach Reid to free up Ridley to showcase himself as one of the premier interceptors in the AFL. He went at 92.3 per cent by foot last season, too. The combination of efficient kicking and intercept possessions equal bulk SuperCoach points. In 2021, he went 125, 136, 147 and 124 to open the season. That’s how good Ridley could be.
Will Shaun Mannagh and Jhye Clark play early?
It’s a bit early in pre-season to say one way or another. Sam Menegola and Isaac Smith have retired from Geelong’s round 24 team, but that side was missing a host of key names after the Cats dropped out of finals contention. One thing we know about Geelong is they don’t draft Stephen Wells gems just to play in the VFL. Look at someone like Brad Close, who has become an integral part of the Geelong side. That history bodes well for Mannagh, who gets his chance at the top level as a 26-year-old after dominating for Werribee. Geelong’s midfield mix might decide whether Clark pushes for his first full game in round 1 after one sub appearance in 2023. Cameron Guthrie should return after being restricted to six matches last season and skipper Patrick Dangerfield seems likely to mix his time between midfield and attack. Tom Atkins was prominent at centre bounces in 2023 and Tanner Bruhn averaged almost 50 per cent of CBAs. So there’s definitely some competition and a big pre-season looms for the top-10 draftee.
Is Richmond the SuperCoach bargain bin?
It’s hard to remember the last time SuperCoaches had so many cheaper options to consider from Punt Road. Beyond Dustin Martin, occassionally Shai Bolton and then Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto last year, the Tigers have never been a team SuperCoaches have spent a huge amount of time analysing. Although, Damien Hardwick did gift us a 150 score from opposition midfielders and half-back flankers most weeks. As the Tigers begin their reboot under Adem Yze, there are a host of contenders to become SuperCoach cash cows. Andrew McQualter didn’t do us any favours by debuting Tom Brown ($154k) and James Trezise ($207k) in round 24, meaning they start at elevated rookie prices. Trezise scored 93 on debut from 17 disposals, while Brown scored 69 points with 16 disposals and six marks. Consider the pair if they are playing behind the ball. Josh Gibcus, a popular selection in 2021, is another Tigers defender to monitor as he bids to overcome hamstring troubles. Sam Naismith ($123k) could be a standout cheapie if anything happens to Toby Nankervis, while Tyler Sonsie ($150k) looms as a downgrade target once he has served a VFL suspension that will delay his start to the year.
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