SuperCoach AFL: Eight strategies to overcome a lack of premium forwards in 2024

This is shaping as one of the toughest years to find a SuperCoach forward premium on record. But, there are ways to turn the drought in your favour. Here are eight strategies to make your forward line work in 2024.

Connor Rozee. Tim Taranto. Josh Dunkley. Errol Gulden. Stephen Coniglio.

How’s the saying go?

You don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.

SuperCoaches were blessed with one of the best forward premium crops in the game’s history last year, with a host of topscoring midfielders listed as FWD.

But the transition of Taranto, Rozee, Gulden and Dunkley into full-time midfielders means the options are seriously limited this year.

Jack Macrae, Luke Jackson and Dustin Martin are near the top of the prices, but very few of the $500k+ forward premiums comes without a few red flags.

Really, that should be no surprise when no player listed as a FWD this year averaged 100 in 2023.

If you believe another saying, then in crisis comes opportunity.

And this year’s forward premium drought will give you the opportunity to truly set your forward line apart from other coaches.

Here are eight options you could use for your starting forward lines this year.

1. THE VALUE OF RUCK COVER

Many SuperCoaches are considering a one-premium forward strategy due to the depth of quality rookies this year.

If you’re one of them, it then comes down to whether you prefer Jack Macrae, Luke Jackson or another premium to spearhead your forwards.

Jackson was one of the hottest players in SuperCoach in the last month of 2023, averaging 130.3 points from rounds 21-24.

But the important factor to note is that was when Sean Darcy was out due to injury.

Jackson’s numbers drop significantly when Darcy is in the team as the No.1 ruckman.

THE POSITIVE: Starting Jackson gives you an extra ruck number during the early byes where Jarrod Witts, Kieren Briggs, Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn will all miss one match. That might give you an extra player and drop a low score out of your best 18.

THE NEGATIVE: The Darcy factor. Jackson averaged 87 points a game in 2023 when Darcy played and 119 when he didn’t. The reality likely is you’re better waiting for a Darcy injury before jumping on.

Big contract extension for Sean Darcy.

Luke Jackson thrived when the big man was sidelined in 2023:

87- average with Darcy

119 - average without Darcy

Jackson is an intriguing pick as a DPP in 2024.#SuperCoach

— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) December 13, 2023

Can Luke Jackson score well enough to carry your forward line?

2. TRUST THE PREMOS

While many other SuperCoaches go skinny in the forward line and spend big elsewhere, maybe your point of difference can be an extra forward premium or two. Jackson (see above), Jack Macrae (the Bevo factor) and Sam Flanders (role uncertainty, new coach) all have question marks going into the new season. But, uncertainty doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t work out.

THE POSITIVE: By starting this trio you could have three of the top forwards of 2024 locked in and can use your trades to bolster other positions. Teams who don’t start Macrae, Jackson and Flanders might not have that option as they will be trading to get them (or other forward premiums in).

THE NEGATIVE: The rookie depth is so strong in the forward line that you don’t really want to limit your options. There are also a host of mid-price options who look to be worth a punt.

A three-premium forward line could set your team apart.

3. THE MACRAE BOUNCE BACK

Last year was the first time since 2016 that Macrae averaged less than 100. Yes, we’re being harsh as he averaged 99.9 points. But Macrae has set such high standards during his illustrious SuperCoach career. It was a tough watch for most of the campaign for a great of our fantasy game. Macrae was shunted out of the midfield, spending stacks of time forward and playing on a wing. Can you trust him to bounce back? Surely a return to midfield is on the cards after Bailey Smith’s ACL injury.

THE POSITIVE: He couldn’t really have had more go against his last year and still averaged two points a game more than any other player listed as a forward this year.

THE NEGATIVE: You’re going to be in for a frustrating ride playing Luke Beveridge roulette. Smith going down has created a midfield opening, but the Dogs seem pretty bullish on recruit James Harmes and top draftee Ryley Sanders too. There’s also the hamstring setback suffered in pre-season - Macrae should be okay for round 1 but will he be at full fitness?

Will Jack Macrae remind SuperCoaches of just how good he can be?

4. MID-PRICE MADNESS

The pre-season mid-price breakout tease has long been a staple of SuperCoach. It might never be as important as this year to get it right. Realistically, it wouldn’t be a smart play to choose six (or eight) mid-pricers as this team below shows. There’s a real buzz out of Waverley about Connor Macdonald’s pre-season as a midfielder — although Will Day has been sidelined. Zac Fisher should rack of plenty of ball in North’s defence — but has had a hamstring setback. Nat Fyfe is a dual Brownlow medallist — but one of the most injury-prone players in the game. You get the idea. Mid-pricers can be hard to nail, but very rewarding if you get them right.

THE POSITIVE: If you get one or two mid-price selections right, you can get a potential season keeper for less than $400k.

THE NEGATIVE: If you get them wrong, mid-pricers can be hard to get out of as they are often awkwardly priced. Say you picked Macdonald, where would you go with $380k if he didn’t work out?

There are a host of standout risk-reward mid-price selections this year.

5. HARLEY REID F1

I am frightened by how much I like the look of this. You could be hundreds of points behind other coaches if it went wrong, but that would be offset — somewhat — by the tens of thousands added to your budget from round 3-4 onwards. There are potentially 15-20 players under Reid’s starting price of $207k who could play in round 1. Picking eight rookies would mean you at least get to choose about half of them and don’t miss out on potential cash generation which is so important early on.

THE POSITIVE: If 4-5 of these work out, you could add another $400k+ to your bank once the first price changes kick in. In the below example, five have FWD-MID eligibility too. So, if one of your midfield rookies tanked, you could swing them into midfield and trade in another fast-starting forward cheapie too. This strategy means you would get a look at who the top premiums are, which remains uncertain as Opening Round draws closer.

THE NEGATIVE: If Jack Macrae, Luke Jackson, Dustin Martin and co average 100+ in the opening 4-5 rounds, you’re going to be playing catch up all season. It’s also a long way from the six players you would be starting in your forward line to premiums, so you could be waiting a while to start upgrading.

A SuperCoach forward line of rookies couldn’t work — could it?

6. THE PRE-SEASON HEROES

Sometimes in SuperCoach its just worth going with the hot hand. And, with so much doubt about the premium forward stocks this year, maybe it’s worth just going for those who have been dare we say it...training the house down. Dustin Martin is back playing midfield, Caleb Daniel seems to be spending plenty of time in the guts and Adem Yze appears to like Liam Baker next to Martin in the middle too. Then there’s Macdonald, whose impressive form we already referenced. If they can translate their pre-season form into the real stuff, a fast start beckons.

THE POSITIVE: When there are so many reasons not to pick a lot of the forward premiums, at least you have got form — and role — on your side.

THE NEGATIVE: In this example, if you want both Baker and Martin you will be without them both during the round 6 bye. History also tells us that while pre-season can provide some hints, roles and form don’t always translate into the season proper.

Why not pick players in form?

7. TARGET THE EARLY FIXTURES

While there’s no guarantee that North Melbourne and West Coast flunk again, SuperCoaches targeting the early fixtures will likely hone in on the bottom-two sides of 2023. GWS is the only team which plays both of those teams twice (in rounds 1 and 2). So if you’re going to use your 40 trades aggressively, you could start Greene, hope he kicks two bags against the Eagles and Roos, then trade him out when the fixtures get tougher. Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow has a North backline lacking height in round 3, while Jeremy Cameron could feast on the Roos in round 5. An even more aggressive approach would be to start Greene, then trade him to Curnow at round 3.

THE POSITIVE: If all goes to plan, you’ll be off to a flyer.

THE NEGATIVE: Targeting fixtures doesn’t always work out. What happens if North double teams Charloe Curnow, for example? You would also be burning through trades you might need later on.

Targeting the early fixtures could pay rich dividends.

8. USE OPENING ROUND TO PICK FOR YOU

My SuperCoach colleague Max Stainkamph (formerly known as Patch of Jock Reynolds fame) has penned a great guide about how SuperCoaches can exploit Opening Round and let it guide their team selections. The simplest way to put it is a ‘Try before you buy’ round in SuperCoach. You’ll get a risk-free look at the roles of players such as Sam Flanders, James Harmes, Nat Fyfe, Jack Billings and a stack of rookies including Bailey Laurie and Darcy Jones (pending selection). Round 0 scores will count in price cycles, so don’t miss out if a mid-pricer or rookie fires in Opening Round.

THE POSITIVE: You can practically guarantee how much cash generation your forward line will have early in the season by jumping on players who performed well in Round 0. You will also get a look at roles/form in a proper game.

THE NEGATIVE: Every player who features in Opening Round has a bye in the first six weeks of the season.

Why not pick a forward line full of Opening Round players?