SuperCoach AFL 2024 round 17 trade guide: Top targets, who’s on thin ice
The No.1 ranked SuperCoach says he backed his gut in 2024, but there is some serious strategy behind his success. See his best calls and advice for other coaches.
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The No.1 ranked SuperCoach says chasing value and trusting his gut have been the keys to his success in 2024.
Nat is coach of Chev’s Titans, which has outscored more than 180,000 teams to sit on top of the overall rankings with 35,797 points after 16 rounds.
“A big thing has really been not worrying about what other people have been doing this season, which is something that I think has separated me a little bit,” he said on this week’s official SuperCoach podcast.
“Last year I was too much the other way, worrying ‘What’s everyone else doing’ ... with that said, I have been watching guys and seeing what the general community is doing. So it’s not disregarding their advice, but just trusting my gut, which is sometimes easy to say, hard to do in this game.”
Watch the full interview in the video player above
Nat is in his third year playing SuperCoach, and the first as a serious challenger.
“My frst year I think I had half the Bombers team in my SuperCoach team,” he said.
In year two the law student started consuming a regular diet of SuperCoach podcasts and YouTube shows on the train home from university, and tried to copy what the experts were doing. “This year I really trusted my gut from the start, pre-season research and all that good stuff, and really got stuck into it.”
His best moves including trading in Dockers Luke Ryan and Caleb Serong before the first price changes, and getting on the right end of the best scores from rookies. But a key to his success has been who he didn’t pick – resisting the urge to pay top dollar for players like Matt Rowell, Zach Merrett and Tim English.
“I’ve saved money by not getting them, and I haven’t really been punished because they haven’t kept up that formline,” he said.
The temptation was almost overwhelming to pay up for Tom Green after his hot start to the season, but Nat held his nerve – and reaped the rewards.
“No one could see the five coming (against Sydney in round 8), that was his injury game, but that was the big landmine that I dodged and that really catapulted me up the rankings.
“Instead, I’ve targeted guys with value. I got Lachie Whitfield for $500k ... I took a punt on Clayton Oliver – it didn’t really work out but he kept rookies off field and I moved him to Gulden, so it was a stepping stone with a bit of upside.
“I’ve also got Tom Stewart in my team, who I brought in a couple of weeks ago. He hasn’t been fantastic, but I’ve backed in guys like Stewart – that fallen premo who has the proven history – and I think he’ll come good still.
“Basically chasing value wherever I can, rather than chasing guys who are $650k.”
Stewart and Jack Crisp in defence are two big points of difference in Nat’s team, along with Jye Caldwell and Izak Rankine in the forward line.
With trades almost gone, he’s relying on an extra premium defender and Crow Billy Dowling for cover in the final eight rounds.
He said he would be lying if the $50,000 grand prize for the overall SuperCoach champion hadn’t crossed his mind, “but it’s not about the money, that’s not why I play SuperCoach.
“I love football and SuperCoach adds that extra interest to the game. It gives me a reason to watch a random GWS-Adelaide game on a Sunday afternoon.”
Trade guide: The SuperCoach difference makers you need
Trade strategy is changing as we enter the run home in SuperCoach for 2024.
Some teams will still have one or two spots to fill in a “finished” team of 22 premiums, and if that’s you, there are some great options below.
Other teams will be assessing their weak links and trying to find a position or player where they can gain an edge over their rivals.
There’s not much point trading for a highly owned star at this time of year – unless that player is Marcus Bontempelli.
But even reliable stars like Max Gawn or Zach Merrett can drop a stinker, as we saw in round 16.
Picking an in-form player with lower ownership can give you an edge over teams stuck with underperformers they can’t afford to offload.
The big question is, how many trades can you use to make it happen? The best play is to get an “extra” premium by, for instance, trading in Izak Rankine and pushing a player like Luke Jackson or Charlie Curnow to the bench. That way you can make use of their big scores and dodge the awful ones (if you get your timing right).
That will usually require two trades, a luxury not every coach can afford – going down to three or fewer at this point is dicing with extreme danger.
You could get a POD in one trade – by dumping another player of similar value. That is also very risky, and we wouldn’t recommend trading out a player like Merrett or Luke Davies-Uniacke after one poor score.
There are some players you could make a case for, however.
Matt Rowell has scored 82 or lower in his last three games, with even a return to People First Stadium failing to recapture his early-season form – which feels like a lifetime ago.
Jack Steele also looks a different player to the first five rounds. His scores haven’t been as bad as Rowell, but it’s a month since he scored over 100.
Chad Warner has also gone four games without a ton after becoming target A1 for opposition taggers. For Nic Martin, it’s only two tons since round 8 after a 75 on Saturday night, his lowest total since round 1.
Those players are all falling in value, but a bit of cash in the bank – with the possible assistance of a rookie downgrade – could make a big difference to your final fortunes.
ROOKIES
LAWSON HUMPHRIES $117,300 DEF/MID
SuperCoaches have been crying out for a DEF/MID connection on the bench and we might have our man in the 63rd pick from the 2023 draft. The 21-year-old rebounding defender shone on debut for the Cats, picking up 15 disposals and scoring 91 points, and is set for an extended run in the seniors based on Saturday night’s result – and Chris Scott’s comments after the game: “I’m pleased he was able to get the ball enough to show what he can do with the ball – the decision making and the kicking. In the contest he was good, but it is hard to get these things right because it feels like we have been talking about him for a couple of months. And I guess you’re always hopeful that you look back and think, ‘should have pulled the trigger on that a little bit earlier’, but at least we got him in there (on Saturday night).”
LOGAN EVANS $102,400 DEF & ARIE SCHOENMAKER $117,300 DEF
If you prefer the certainty of a player on the bubble, two more defenders are on the table this week. Schoenmaker (55 points v Port Adelaide) has a Break Even of -71 while Evans (52 points v St Kilda) has a BE of -61, but is $15k cheaper. But at this stage of the season, we aren’t really trying to make money from rookies, and even back-up bench scores are a bonus. The dual-position flexibility offered by Humphries makes him a much more appealing option – and he should keep playing anyway.
POD PREMIUMS
IZAK RANKINE $578,100 FWD
Over the past two weeks many coaches have wrestled with the choice between Izak Rankine and Charlie Curnow. Well, that has been comprehensively answered, although possibly too late for the coaches who backed in the Carlton megastar. Rankine set up Adelaide’s win over the Giants with a rampaging first half; tagger Toby Bedford was switched on to him after halftime and put the brakes on, but a score of 121 underscores Rankine’s star potential – and advantage he’ll give teams who can find room for him. He’s a good chance to become DPP in a week, too.
JYE CALDWELL $505,200 MID/FWD
Rankine is in 7 per cent of SuperCoach teams, but if that’s not unique enough for you, look no further. Caldwell is in 4 per cent of teams, and is absolutely flying. His past two games have produced 58 disposals, 18 clearances, 23 tackles and 242 SuperCoach points. He’s a lot cheaper than Rankine (although with a Break Even of 47 he might not be for long), has been given a full-time midfield role by Brad Scott, will never be tagged and already has DPP. What’s not to like?
JACK SINCLAIR $623,700 DEF/MID
Recruiting decisions are based on form right now, and Sinclair is running as hot as anyone in the game. Scores of 147, 135 and 143 in his past three games from a proven premium scorer in just 6 per cent of teams. After a massive $42k price hike this week you will have to pay up for him, but that is likely to only make him more unique.
RORY LAIRD $545,000 MID
A forgotten man in SuperCoach this year, the Crows midfielder was a staple in our sides for the past three years when he averaged at least 116 points a game. An unpredictable role and form issues have seen him drop off the radar, with an ownership of 6 per cent and an average of 106.8. If we disregard the first 13 rounds – Crows fans are certainly trying to – his numbers look a lot better – 34 disposals and 141 points before Adelaide’s bye, and 23 touches and 113 points on Saturday night. The key is a move back to half-back, where Laird made his name as a SuperCoach gun. Will the role continue? Based on Rankine’s increased midfield numbers and Saturday night’s result, why not? He’s more than $100k under his starting price.
JOSH DUNKLEY $592,000 MID
A proven SuperCoach stud, Dunkley has also flown under the radar this year and is in just 7 per cent of teams. But his high contested possession rate and tackle numbers (17 over the past two rounds) are the foundations of a top-line premium, and Dunkley’s scores have gone to another level in the past two weeks, backing up 144 against Port Adelaide with 143 against the Demons. With Lachie Neale attracting any tag attention, Dunkley is free to rack up the footy and SuperCoach points.
NOAH ANDERSON $568,800 MID
These are Anderson’s scores at People First Stadium in 2024: 122, 129, 155, 151, 150, 140. The Suns are a different team playing at home, and Anderson is one huge reason why. The obvious question is how many times they play there again in the run home, and the answer is three – so there’s about 450 points in the bank. The Suns also play North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, West Coast in Perth and Richmond at the MCG, which – in theory – present opportunities for more big returns. It’s a gamble – Anderson has also scored in the 50s twice this season – but you’ve got to risk it for the biscuit.
SAM WALSH $559,300 MID
If you aren’t a big risk-taker then Walsh might be more your cup of tea – a midfielder with an enormous work rate who just gets the footy a lot every week. Some poor efficiency and odd factors like low time on ground have capped his ceiling of late, but he stuffed the stat sheet on Sunday with 26 touches, two goals and 10 tackles to finish with 148 SuperCoach points. He hardly ever has a bad game, the Blues have a great fixture to finish the year and he won’t break the bank.
ADAM SAAD $440,700 DEF
Speaking of Blues, Saad could be a steal for your final defensive spot, or as a spare premium on the bench if you can afford one. With the proviso that half-backs have scored well against Richmond all season, his 118-point return was his second ton in three weeks after injury ruined the first half of his season. See above for comments re Carlton’s fixture, but the most enticing factor is his bargain price.
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