SuperCoach AFL 2017: expert Dan Begala reveals his first-take SuperCoach line-up

SUPERCOACH guru reveals his first SuperCoach team for 2017 as well as the strategy he hopes will lead him to $50,000. SUPERCOACHES BOX PODCAST

ITERATION 1, January 2017.

The dust has barely settled on 2016 and teams are entrenched smack-bang in the middle of their gruelling pre-season regimes.

As always, there are whispers of players “tearing up” the track; smashing personal bests; and firming (within the coaches mind) for Round 1.

Without bursting anyone’s bubble here, this information is fundamentally irrelevant to your SuperCoach success in 2017.

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It is, and always will be, dictated by the pre-season competition and the subsequent playing data released in the lead-up to the season opener.

SuperCoach has finally opened and there’s no better time to reveal my inaugural line-up, which I expect, will be subject to a multitude of changes.

I will direct my focus towards ideal structuring and the importance of managing a balance between rookies, stars and the oft-maligned, mid-priced madness.

From the backline …

Bombers turned Demons Jake Melksham and Michael Hibberd. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

DEFENDERS

The ideal structure, per my past experiences, is three “premium” defenders with the remaining positions composed of a breadth of rookies that you’ll inevitably leverage for cash cow purposes. Defenders, as many will agree, can be sporadic in their output and it’s best to assess your upgrades as the season progresses rather than over-burdening your salary cap in Round 1.

I’ve opted for Heath Shaw ($577k), Rory Laird ($527k) and have welcomed the prodigal son, Michael Hibberd ($402K), as a prospect to fill the third “premium” role.

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I will, however, consider interchanging D2 and D3 with Taylor Adams and Bob Murphy should their form warrant this and Murphy bounces back successfully from his ACL injury.

The initial suite of rookies are likely to change but I am certain Lachie Keefe ($166k) will slot directly into centre-half back at Collingwood. Kieran Collins and Luke Ryan are likely to be given senior opportunities in 2017 and will therefore feature in my initial line-up.

Andy McGrath, the prized No.1 draft pick, is also said to be firming for a Round 1 debut and will definitely be up for consideration despite his lofty price-tag ($212k).

Dan Begala’s defenders and midfielders.

MIDFIELDERS

The ideal structure, I believe, is four absolute “premium” midfielders who you anticipate will finish as the highest averaging players in the competition.

These players, if you get it right, will routinely contribute the bulk of your scoring. So get the chequebook out and start spending.

I’ve personally opted for Patrick Dangerfield ($717k), Scott Pendlebury ($646k), Josh Kennedy ($617k) and Nat Fyfe ($573k) all of whom thrive on the contested football and have extensive history as top-tier performers.

However, it’s essential that we consider the pre-seasons of up-and-coming stars such as Marcus Bontempelli ($586k), Patrick Cripps ($586k) and Zach Merrett ($606k), each of which finished 2016 like a house on fire.

These players, if you choose to select them, will also act a PODs (points-of- difference) and inevitably aide in your charge for the overall prize.

Patrick Dangerfield is tackled by Scott Selwood. Picture: Glenn Ferguson

In the past, I have also backed in one or two mid-priced players, who I anticipate will develop into top 10-20 scorers within the midfield.

This year, I’m looking at Carlton captain Marc Murphy ($433k), who I anticipate will rekindle the form of his halcyon days following an uninterrupted pre-season campaign.

Dayne Beams, a perennial SuperCoach premium, is also worth considering at M5, however, this is fraught with danger given his ongoing knee issues.

David Swallow ($280k), is another significantly under-priced star worth considering. All reports originating from the Sunshine State suggest he’s, wait for it, “flying” and yet to miss a key session. No Meatball; no Jaeger, so I anticipate a big season for Swallow.

The remaining spots will be filled with the best performing pre-season “cheapies” who I envisage will include a mix of well-developed draftees (eg Will Brodie, Sam Powell-Pepper) and mature players returning from injury (eg Nathan Freeman, David Myers).

Dan Begala’s rucks and forwards.

RUCKS

Set-and-forget in 2016 and unlikely to change this year.

It’s the Max Gawn ($645k) and Todd Goldstein ($588k) show, so find the dollars and stump up.

Each will average north of 110 points-per-game with “daylight” between them and the next best ruckman (Brodie Grundy and Stefan Martin).

With restrictions applied to third-man up rules, it’s expected that Gawn and Goldstein will continue to thrive and even yield greater volumes of hit-outs to advantage. This stat, as we found in 2016, is pure rolled gold for ruckman.

Finally, select a bench ruckman to act as a “loophole” for all of your captaincy manipulations.

Bulldogs star Luke Dahlhaus. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

Jack Macrae is a forward this year. Picture: Michael Klein

FORWARDS

The key to success within the forward line, I believe, is to avoid all key forwards (eg Josh Kennedy and Lance Franklin) and consider three “premium” players that predominantly play as midfielders.

The two standouts are Luke Dahlhaus ($521k) and Jack Macrae ($511k), fresh from premiership success, and bound to develop immensely from their respective finals campaigns.

The remaining premium position will be tightly contested between the incumbent, Toby Greene ($492k), and his new teammate, Brett Deledio ($517k), who is a renowned high-scorer albeit replete with a history of soft-tissue injuries.

The fourth forward role is reserved for a mid-priced player – akin to Isaac Heeney ($433k) or Touk Miller ($429k) – who is expected to announce themselves on the competition as a top 10 performer.

My preference is Heeney, who in my opinion, was close to the Swans’ best player throughout the 2016 finals series and will undoubtedly thrive in the absence of Tom Mitchell.

The remaining four positions, as expected, are to be filled with a batch of rookies who perform admirably during the pre-season competition. Will Hoskin-Elliott and Shai Bolton, appear to be the front-runners for season 2017.