SuperCoach 2018: The Phantom’s verdict on which premiums to trust in defence
IN a shallow pool, which premium-price defenders can we trust for SuperCoach in 2018? The Phantom takes you through the players at the top-end.
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IN a shallow pool, which premium-price defenders can we trust for SuperCoach in 2018? The Phantom takes you through the players at the top-end.
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THE SURE THINGS
Michael Hurley (Ess) $563,500
An average of 26 disposals — at 79 per cent efficiency — and eight marks per game would be a great return for any ball-winning midfielder. But these aren’t the numbers of a midfielder; these are the numbers of the 2017 All-Australian centre half-back.
After averaging 82 in the opening four rounds — don’t forget he did miss 12 months of footy — Hurley exploded, reminding us all of his scoring power, posting SuperCoach tons in 12 of the next 16 games, seven of them in excess of 115.
Only 3.2 per cent of teams started with the key defender last season but the signs were there, the rest of us just missed them. Prior to the suspension saga, Hurley, who is now back in full training after off-season surgery, lifted his average from 86 to 95 in 2015, finishing the year strongly, averaging 106 in the final six games.
That percentage will be much higher in 2018 — and for good reason.
The Phantom’s verdict: One defender we can be sure about. With the Bombers on the rise, there is no reason he won’t improve again.
Rory Laird (Adel) $550,800
Speaking of defenders we can be sure about, Laird is just about the only other one. The 24-year-old, who reads the play better than most, is a ball magnet in every sense of the word, tallying 34 or more touches on nine occasions in 2017.
Laird, who averaged 30 disposals and 100 SuperCoach in an All-Australian year, is as safe as selections come.
Even in the absence of half-back sidekick Brodie Smith.
In the last two games Laird lined up at half-back without Smith — the preliminary final and grand final — he posted scores of 129 and 106. Don’t be concerned.
The Crows play 6 of the first 9 games at Adelaide Oval and, like a number of his star teammates, Laird scores well at the venue, averaging 109 points there last season.
The Phantom’s verdict: Along with Hurley — and maybe Michael Hibberd — Laird is one of the few sure things in defence in 2018. Put him and forget about it.
CAN WE TRUST THEM?
Elliot Yeo (WC) $561,300
In 2017, after a number of years of inconsistency, there was finally some certainty about Yeo’s form and SuperCoach scoring — his average of 103 was the third-highest of all forwards.
But — with an injury and his flexibility — is there now too much uncertainty to start the 24-year-old in 2018?
An ongoing hip concern has limited Yeo’s pre-season to this point and, although he’s still on track for the opening round clash with the Swans, we’ve all learned the hard way — The Phantom included — the risk associated with underdone players.
This quote from Yeo, who has switched from a forward-midfielder to a pure defender in SuperCoach for 2018, earlier this month doesn’t help either; “I’d like to progress through into the midfield but I still think there might be times there where I will have to play backline or I’ll have to go forward, deep forward or high-half forward.”
Even he’s not certain.
The Phantom’s verdict: The Phantom isn’t certain either. In a Sam Docherty-less defence, even with limited preparation, he could still be a top-3 scorer. But is ‘could’ enough?
Brandon Ellis (Rich) $502,500
As a 21-year-old in 2014, Ellis averaged 97 SuperCoach points and finished second in the Jack Dyer medal. The following year, he broke the three-figure mark, averaging 100 for the season, scoring 90 or more in 17 of his 22 games. The hard-running Ellis was well on his way to becoming one of the league’s most damaging wingmen.
Fast forward to 2017 and, after a pre-season discussion with coach Damien Hardwick, Ellis was recast as a defender after an underwhelming 2016 campaign. A slow start saw him average 79 over the first nine rounds but Ellis bounced back with a huge 30-disposal, 147-point performance in round 10. The 24-year-old went on to average 100 points from that point as the Tigers roared into the finals.
There’s long been a query over his kicking but the stats show Ellis is improving this side of his game. A disposal efficiency of 79 per cent last season is up from 73 in 2015 and 75 in 2016.
And they don’t come more durable. Ellis has played 106 consecutive games — the third longest streak in the game — and has only missed three matches since his debut.
Can we trust him?
The Phantom’s verdict: Yes. Just enough to pick him. From afar, it looks like he’s had a reasonable off-season with Dusty but maybe that’s a good thing.
Jake Lloyd (Syd) $479,900
In a month of football that really put him on the SuperCoach radar, the neat-kicking, runner, who splits his time between half-back and the wing, averaged 103 points over the final four rounds of 2016.
Lloyd carried that form into last season, averaging 100 in the opening nine rounds of the season — a period which included five SuperCoach tons — before a nasty concussion saw him leave the ground early in round 10.
While the 24-year-old returned after the bye to post four consecutive scores of 88 or more, Lloyd never really got going again, only passing that figure once for the remainder of the year.
When you have to ask yourself too many questions about someone, there is reason to be concerned. Does he have the ceiling to be an elite scorer? Does a fit Jarrad McVeigh affect Lloyd’s role? Can he be damaging enough with the football to compensate the outside nature of his game?
The Phantom’s verdict: Should be a consistent scorer but there are still too many questions that The Phantom doesn’t have the answer for just yet.
THE VETERAN
Kade Simpson (Car) $516,300
Is there such thing as a young 34-year-old?
The veteran Blue defender, who turns 34 in May, makes a good case. Simpson shows no sign of slowing down and, in the absence of star rebounder Sam Docherty, the Blues can’t afford for him to.
Since 2009, the courageous left-footer has averaged more than 92 SuperCoach points in each season, with that number peaking at 106 in 2016. Although he still posted two scores in excess of 140, inconsistency crept into Simpson’s game and that figure dropped back to 94 in 2017.
While, again, as a leader in an inexperienced backline, there will be more responsibility on Simpson’s shoulders, don’t expect Docherty’s disposals to fall into his hands. There are a number of young Blues vying to help fill the void.
Phantom’s verdict: Still as trustworthy as ever but can he hit that high ceiling consistently to be a top 6 scorer?
THE YOUNG GUN
Alex Witherden $478,900
In his first nine appearances in the AFL, Witherden averaged 87 points, posting SuperCoach tons in his fourth, sixth and ninth games. Yes, it’s only a small sample but only 18 defenders averaged more points than the then 18-year-old.
Witherden can find the ball — he won more than 27 touches in four games — but, more importantly, he uses it with precision.
And the Lions trust him with the footy.
From round 14, Witherden took the fourth-most kick-ins of any player in the AFL. And, in a great stat for fantasy coaches, 28 were to himself, placing him second.
The only negative with the young star is his price. Paying $478k for a second-year player is a lot and it usually doesn’t happen.
Phantom’s verdict: Should win the Rising Star award but, as much as I want to pick him, The Phantom can’t overlook the high price tag. Can you?
Originally published as SuperCoach 2018: The Phantom’s verdict on which premiums to trust in defence
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