SuperCoach 2017: What to watch for in the JLT Community Series
THE JLT Community Series kicks off tonight and it could make or break your SuperCoach season. Expert Daniel Begala reveals what you need to watch for.
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AFL fans across the nation can collectively rejoice as we’re only hours from the return of football as we welcome the beginning of the JLT Community Series (the new NAB Challenge).
These next four weeks, according to SuperCoach folklore, are the most pivotal to your prospects of success in 2017.
Other than pre-season rumours and hearsay, this is the only snippet of information you’ll receive before you embark on the 23-round pilgrimage to the Holy Grail.
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This is your dress rehearsal.
Watch as many games as you can and study the numbers. Here are the most important aspects of the JLT Community Series that you must consider:
BREAKOUT CONTENDERS
The most essential element of the pre-season campaign, from my experience, is ascertaining the players that you expect will “break out” and announce themselves on the competition in 2017.
Breakout contenders are those players whose SuperCoach output skyrockets year-on-year and is usually defined by increased opportunity, maturation and physical development.
Keep an eye on players like Isaac Heeney ($433k MID) and Touk Miller ($429k MID/FWD), both of whom have been earmarked for greater midfield minutes and are expected to shoulder more significant playing responsibilities in 2017.
Last year Zach Merrett was the classic breakout player. In his third season he graduated to a fulltime midfield role and boosted his SuperCoach scoring from 89 to 112 points a game. Who will be this year’s Zach Merrett? You can find a list of breakout contenders here.
RETURNING STARS
Injuries are a frustrating aspect of football, particularly when they cripple some of the game’s biggest names.
This year we’ll welcome the return of a swathe of players, and not just any players, but A-graders with extensive SuperCoach pedigree and scoring credentials.
Many will arrive gift-wrapped with a juicy price discount, but the decisions you make on these players will make or break your season.
Personally, I will be monitoring the performances and return of Dayne Beams ($432k MID), Marc Murphy ($433k MID), David Swallow ($280k MID), Jarryd Roughead ($367k FWD) and Jaeger O’Meara ($319k MID).
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The other worthy consideration, despite not being the result of injury, will be the return of all of the banned Bombers, particularly newly appointed skipper Dyson Heppell ($513k MID) and Jobe Watson ($453k MID). Can they return to their high-scoring days of previous years? The JLT Series will give us a good indication.
ROOKIES
These are the bargain-basement players, priced between $110-150,000, who will dictate all of your upgrades and squad improvements as they rapidly appreciate in value.
Right now, there are a lot of names being bandied about with Shai Bolton ($117k MID/FWD), Sam Powell-Pepper ($135k MID) and Nathan Freeman ($123k MID) among those dominating early discussions.
The focus, in my opinion, should be on the internal competition for a role, the team’s youth policy, and whether their JLT performances warrant a debut in Round 1.
Mature-age recruits like Geelong’s Tom Stewart ($117k DEF) and Fremantle’s Luke Ryan ($117k DEF) should also be high on your radar.
Bottom-priced players might be sitting on your bench but finding players who get games is the key to a successful SuperCoach season.
Challenge yourself to unearth the next diamond in the rough like Tom Papley, last year’s rookie bolter whose meteoric rise culminated in a Grand Final berth and a $200k increase to his starting value.
DATA, DATA, DATA
Excel is your friend, not your foe, so become comfortable with reviewing all of the match statistics made available following the JLT Community Series.
Immerse yourself in the numbers to make astute, data-centric decisions to support the final composition and structure of your Round 1 line-up.
You don’t need to be an investment banker (but it would help), so get familiar with metrics such as points-per-minute, possession breakdowns (contested v uncontested) and disposal efficiency.
Data is paramount, but never forget the importance of a good eye for football and an intricate understanding of the AFL game. So watch as many games, even highlights, as possible in the lead-up to Round 1.
THE PRE-SEASON TRAP
A final word of warning: just because a young player is starting at the centre bounce in the JLT Series doesn’t mean he will play there in Round 1.
AFL coaches use these games to experiment, get a look at untried players and expose youngsters against mature bodies. Keep a close eye on who isn’t playing as well as who is — which players from a team’s best 22 will return and potentially displace the rookie you’ve invested your SuperCoach premiership hopes in?
Gather as much intelligence as you can by listening to what coaches and assistant coaches say, reading match reports and analysis and trust your instincts. Good luck!
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