SuperCoach 2017: How to pick the perfect cash cow

THE cash cow is the cash generation engine of every SuperCoach team. Don’t miss these elite selection tips to get ahead of the pack in your quest for 2017 glory.

Hugh McCluggage at Brisbane Lions training. Picture: Peter Wallis

THE cash cow is the primary cash generation engine of the elite SuperCoach team.

This article is not a crystal ball. We won’t unearth the most likely individual rookie prospects today. We will however unpack rookie management strategies that every supercharged SuperCoach needs to get a handle on before sitting down to select their starting team.

The following is a summary of the “How to Milk the Most Cash out of your Cows” article featured in the 2017 Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Magazine.

PICK BLOKES WHO WILL PLAY

Pick rookies who will play at least six early games. Rocket science, hey? It sounds simplistic but it’s incredible how many don’t get this right.

Most of your rivals will slot the same set of rookies into their starting teams. Don’t follow the herd. Do your research before you lock any bottom-priced player into your squad.

Ask yourself: As promising as a kid may have been throughout the pre-season, does he have a role to play in his team’s best 22 when the real stuff comes around?

THE PHANTOM: JLT WEEK ONE BACKLINE BOLTERS

EVERY SCORE: SUPERCOACH POINTS FROM SUPER SUNDAY

For example, a young midfielder who impresses during the JLT Series will have poor job prospects in a team with a deep senior midfield (for instance, Jordan Foote will find it tougher to get midfield minutes when the Swans’ big guns are all back in there). Likewise, a young gun in up-and-coming teams Melbourne and St Kilda has very little chance of cracking regular early games in 2017.

Assess team lists. Identify deficiencies. Look for rookies who fulfill a need. Brisbane is struggling for depth both back and forward. Port needs bolstering in the guts. North has been decimated over the off-season.

A rookie prospect who plugs a hole will more often than not get the job done.

Hugh McCluggage is likely to get games at Brisbane from Round 1. Picture: Peter Wallis

THINK RETURN ON INVESTMENT OVER PERCEIVED POINT-SCORING CAPACITY

Think long and hard before you lock that first-round draft pick into your starting team.

We all know that rookies selected in the first round of the draft have an elevated price, from Andrew McGrath at $211,800 down to Tim English at $130,800 in 2017.

Does it stand to reason that these guys will whack more SuperCoach points on the board than cheaper rookies? With very few exceptions, history says no. And history tells us there’s a lot more cash to be made of your Bi-Lo branded rookies.

A higher draft selection will rarely outperform lower priced options by enough to justify their higher starting price tag.

The five midfielders taken at No.1 since 2006 have had a combined first year average of 71.4. Last year the top 25 rookies (in terms of cash gained) averaged 68.9.

Take the case of Darcy Parish v Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti in last season. Both came into season 2016 with excellent job prospects given a decimated Essendon list. Parish was highly touted, McDonald-Tipungwuti was elevated at 22 years of age to fulfill a need. The major difference? Starting price.

Starting with a $202,800 price tag, Parish averaged 71.9 to Round 10. The basement priced McDonald-Tipungwuti averaged 76 to Round 10 ... and had appreciated in price by $123,000 more than Parish.

Look past the draft hype and pick options who will give you the most return on your investment, the best bang for your buck when it comes time to take your cash cow to slaughter.

No.1 draft pick Andrew McGrath is the most expensive rookie in SuperCoach. Picture: Michael Klein

Will VFL recruit Tom Stewart be the Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti of 2017? Picture: Peter Ristevski

CASH IN YOUR COWS AT THE RIGHT TIME

This is as important a rookie management consideration as any other. It can also be the most difficult to nail.

After six games, our 2016 class of starting SuperCoach rookies had appreciated by an average of $145,000. By the end of their 10th game they had added an average of only $40,000 to that total.

In general terms most of your rivals will hold onto their rookies for too long.

The net value of moving money from appreciated rookies into point generating premiums quickly will outweigh the net value of holding onto a rookie for the purpose of an additional nominal price rise in most cases.

UNDERSTAND THE MATHS

Before you take your cash cow to the abattoir, make sure you’ve given him a quick mathematical once-over.

SuperCoach calculates the rise and fall in player pricing based on whether they reach their “breakeven” score. This breakeven (BE) is set based on how closely the player’s recent performances measure up against what they are priced to average. If a player scores more than his BE, his price will rise. If he scores less than his BE, his price will fall.

This is unpacked in the 2017 Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Magazine, where you’ll learn that both BE and price change operate using a three-week rolling average and a “magic number” (approx 5440) that will change slightly from week to week.

It’s important to be aware of this so that calculated decisions can be made based on when large or small scores drift out of reach of the three-week rolling average, having a significant impact on BE and price change.

Mature-age Fremantle recruit Luke Ryan will be a popular SuperCoach pick.

It’s only in the few weeks before Round 1 we can lock rookies away, so this article is merely a guide. However, you should find it useful when the Round 1 teams drop and Ross Lyon leaves out two rookies you’d based your backline on, throwing you into disarray.

May your 2017 cash cows be the fattest, plumpest, cash generating-est bunch of bovines that you’ve ever had the pleasure of slaughtering!

Max Stainkamph is a key contributor to jockreynolds.com.au. The complete “How to Milk the Most Cash out of your Cows” article can be found in the 2017 Jock Reynolds Supercoach magazine here.