SuperCoach 2016: Best trade, captain picks for Round 8, 2016

WELLS, Barlow, Greene and Adams are all out. So what do we do? Best trade, captain picks for Round 8, plus time is running out to pick up a hot prospect. NEW PODCAST

YOU could be forgiven for thinking the byes have arrived early.

When the teams were named on Thursday night, all of Daniel Wells (in 143,753 SuperCoach teams), Marcus Adams (137,123), Michael Barlow (42,218), Lincoln McCarthy (36,124), Toby Greene (21,435) were out.

Wells is the second most popular player in SuperCoach and Adams is No.4.

Disaster.

But the silver lining is we are all in the same boat.

There’s a good chance nearly every team will have a zero on the field this weekend, especially up forward.

Don’t let this news discourage you, or distract you from your long-term plans.

This could be the week to set the serious players apart from those who lose focus in the face of some minor adversity (not naming any names).

Always next year #supercoach #carnage #iquit

— Sam Edmund (@SammyHeraldSun) May 12, 2016

The “reverse trades” button will get a workout, but don’t jump the gun and use a precious trade just to cover a one-week hole. Stick to the long-term plan.

Christian Petracca should still be the No. 1 trade target this week. Rookies of that quality don’t come along often and when they do, you can’t miss the boat.

If you wanted to bring in a gun like Dustin Martin at a discount price this week or a point of difference like Steve Motlop (read on), you should still be able to make it happen (trade McCarthy to one of those two and you have one zero covered).

But it means using all the tricks at our disposals — dual-position players really come into their own on weeks like this — and, above all, staying calm.

GEELONG’S FORGOTTEN FORWARD

Geelong has ridden the rollercoaster with Steven Motlop over the past 12 months.

There was the anguish of his contract delay, the frustration of his poor off-season condition, the determination to whip him into shape, and now, the joy and exhilaration of his current form.

In terms of payback, Motlop, 25, has justified Geelong’s enormous faith.

But Motlop’s purple patch has flown too low under the radar.

The Geelong speedster is the No. 1 ranked player in SuperCoach over the past two weeks, with scores of 133 against Gold Coast and 155 against West Coast.

With the opposition and media focusing heavily on skipper Joel Selwood and Brownlow favourite Dangerfield, Motlop is wreaking havoc forward of centre.

But SuperCoaches need to wake up. The line breaking goalkicker is in only 2.4 per cent of teams, or 5129 to be exact. It’s criminally low.

He isn’t the only Cat starring. But Motlop is ripe for a price jump. His break even is only 22 points heading into tonight’s blockbuster against the Crows. His price is projected to increase from $522,000 to $560,000 by Sunday night. He cost only $460,000 at Round 3.

Still not with me? The Cats have a delicious run home over the SuperCoach finals, playing Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane and Melbourne in the final four games.

So before you get all wrapped up in Paddy, tonight, consider the man Motlop.

— Jay Clark

Steven Motlop is in brilliant form for Geelong. Picture: Peter Ristevski

JUMP ON

Christian Petracca $123,900 mid/fwd

The must-buy of the week. Roared home in the second half last week to score 86 points, and now has a break-even of -75 which means he is set for a big price jump after this weekend. Dual-position status a bonus. Don’t miss out!

Ben Keays $117,300 mid

If you already have Petracca or can afford to make two downgrades this week, the Lions academy gun is the next best pick. His break-even is a bit lower than Petracca (-53) but he looks a safe midfield bench option if you’re ready to cash in another rookie (see below).

Dustin Martin $514,100 mid/fwd

Martin’s price has bottomed out after a slow start to the season but after two 100-plus scores in a row his value is about to jump. He won’t be this cheap again.

JUMP OFF

Callum Mills $335,900 mid

Rookies are supposed to make money but Mills will be going the other way unless he can score 94 against Richmond this weekend, which seems unlikely after his 36 last week. Swap him for Petracca or Keays and use the profit to upgrade another rookie or mid-pricer.

Lincoln McCarthy $269,300 fwd

Was injured early last weekend resulting in a season-low score of 15 and a break-even of 101 which would have ensured a big price drop, except it won’t happen this week because he’s not making the trip to Adelaide. That might save his spot for another week while we deal with other issues.

Marcus Adams $349,700 fwd/mid

The Dogs defender has looked more like a rookie in recent weeks, averaging 73 over his past four games. And now he’s out with a broken finger. He’s likely to be back next week and will probably slot back into most teams but he doesn’t look like the season-long keeper we thought he might be. If you’re facing a doughnut it could be time to cash him in.

Ben Keays is a product of the Brisbane Lions academy. Picture: John Gass

CAPTAIN, MY CAPTAIN

Gary Ablett

Has had his issues in recent weeks — averaging a very un-Ablett-like 95 over his past three games — but his average against GWS is ridiculous. He scored 189 lat time against the Giants (in a game the Suns lost) and averages 152 against them across his career.

Patrick Dangerfield

The No. 1 SuperCoach scorer in SuperCoach this year comes up against his old team for the first time. Expect fireworks, and a big score. He certainly knows how to play the Adelaide Oval.

Joel Selwood

Matching Danger with an average of 138 over the past week and an outstanding record against the Crows — averaging 145 in his past three.

Todd Goldstein

Shaun McKernan is out with a quad injury but we wouldn’t blame him for taking the week off after Goldstein scored 221 against him when these teams met last year.

Matt Priddis

Hasn’t scored over 90 for three weeks so he’s a big risk in the last game of the round but he is back at Subiaco against one of his favourite teams to play against — his past three scores against St Kilda are 128, 127 and 120.

Luke Parker

A bit off his game last week but he averages 123 in his past three against Richmond. Steer clear of Buddy, he could manage just 54 last time against Alex Rance.

Exclusive @championdata match-up stats. Good news for Hawk defenders, not so much for Crows defenders #supercoach pic.twitter.com/8k6ods4joV

— SuperCoach AFL (@Supercoach) May 13, 2016

CHAMPION DATA MATCH-UPS

Kade Simpson enters his 250th AFL game milestone in career-best form, averaging 27 disposals — the best of any defender in the league. He hasn’t fallen below 23 disposals in any game and has been exceptional with his ball use, recording the fifth-best disposal efficiency of the top 50 defenders in the competition (84.8 per cent). He faces a Port Adelaide side this round that has given up the third-most points to general defenders of any side in the league.

Grant Birchall will be looking forward to heading back to his home state this week as he prepares to tackle with winless Fremantle. The Dockers give up more points to general defenders than any other side in the competition and with an average of 26 disposals and 100 points from his past 13 games at Aurora Stadium, Birchall will be looking to build on those impressive numbers.

Adelaide welcome former skipper Patrick Dangerfield and Geelong this week, but it won’t have it all its own way. The Cats give up the fourth-fewest points to opposition general defenders of any side, so the likes of Brodie Smith, Ricky Henderson and Paul Seedsman will have their work cut out.

ROOKIE WATCH

SuperCoaches will be lining up in droves to trade in bubble boy Christian Petracca this round. He put in a much-improved performance last week against the Suns, winning 22 of 24 disposals in the forward half of the ground. He also hit the scoreboard, recording two goals, one score assist and eight score involvements. With Callum Mills peaking in price and facing a 94-point break-even score just to keep in price, a straight swap between the two is a no-brainer.

Another option is Bean Keays. He has been solid in his two games, recording 59 and 64 points respectively, with his relentless tackling a feature of his game, applying a combined 14 tackles – ranked equal-fourth at the Lions.

Looking ahead, Darcy MacPherson has kept his place in the side after scoring 77 points on debut last week against Melbourne. He won’t change in price until after his next game, so there’s no need to jump on yet. Elsewhere, Jacob Hopper has been named to make his AFL debut and he enters this match with some solid numbers under his belt in the NEAFL, averaging 31 disposals, six tackles and 124 points.