Round 3 SuperCoach trade guide: What to do with Dustin Martin, Isaac Heeney, Tom Liberatore, top targets before price changes
Tom Liberatore has made an inspired return to Western Bulldogs side, averaging more than 100 in the opening two rounds. Is it time to jump on? ROUND 3 TRADE GUIDE
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Few weeks will define your SuperCoach season quite like this one.
Prices will change for the first time after Round 3 and you will need to ensure you have the right rookies to generate enough money before the must-have picks skyrocket.
Underperforming premium choices such as Dustin Martin and Isaac Heeney will be on the chopping block, although history suggests holding players of this ilk will pay off in the long run.
EXPERT TIPS: DON’T IGNORE THESE ROOKIES
REGRETS: FIXING MY DUMBEST SUPERCOACH CALL
THE PHANTOM: WHY I’M RECRUITING ROCKLIFF
If you’re keen on mid-price stars such as Tom Rockliff, Dom Sheed or Darcy Moore, it’s now or never.
Here are the top 15 trade targets and five players under pressure heading into Round 3:
TOP TARGETS
Tom Rockliff $405,900 MID Avg: 127 Breakeven: -19 Projected price change: +$51,200
When even Ken Hinkley declares, ‘the pig is back’, it’s time to take notice. After he had 41 disposals in JLT2, Rockliff has backed up with 44 and 37 possessions in the opening two games of 2019. Can he be a premium midfielder at season’s end? Hard to say no on the evidence so far.
Dom Sheed $394,100 MID Avg: 122 BE: -15 PPC: +$41,200
The Eagles grand final hero has been in sparkling form, having 38 and 28 disposals against the Lions and Giants. He’s not gaining as much attention as Rockliff but has been almost as impressive. The only question mark is where he fits when Andrew Gaff returns but all the stats suggest he will continue to flourish.
Rory Sloane $524,300 MID Avg: 130 BE: 44 PPC: +$40,100
Underpriced considering he’s one of the premier AFL midfielders, Sloane has already displayed the variety in his game with two hundreds. His Round 2 score of 105 was encouraging considering it only came from 23 disposals. If you’re looking to go sideways from Dustin Martin or Isaac Heeney he needs to be considered.
Travis Boak $478,000 FWD-MID Avg: 121 BE: 35 PPC: +$29,100
Reintroduced to a prominent midfield role at the Power, Boak has delivered scores of 119 and 123 to be the second-ranked forward behind Patrick Dangerfield after two rounds. The question is how much midfield time he gets when Ollie Wines returns, but Hinkley would be brave to move Boak considering his output.
Darcy Moore $239,400 DEF-FWD Avg: 85 BE: -31 PPC: +$47,900
Moore is shaping as one of the keys to Collingwood’s premiership tilt and his intercept-marking ability has helped his SuperCoach scoring. He’s a much better player than his starting price indicates and he’ll be a stepping stone to a premium in defence or attack barring injury. It’s a huge bonus he’s playing on regularly from kick outs too. If you’re keen on him you have to pounce this week.
Tom Liberatore $300,400 MID Avg: 101.5 BE: -29 PPC: +$32,800
After 28 possessions yielded only 75 points in Round 1, Libba was one of the Western Bulldogs matchwinners against Hawthorn on Sunday. Tenacious in the clinches, the left-footer scored 128 from 28 disposals and seven tackles. His price is predicted to jump by more than $30,000.
Lachie Whitfield $542,100 DEF Avg: 114 BE: 86 PPC: +$8800
Shaping as a certain top-six defender come season’s end. His ownership is still below 30 per cent, somewhat surprisingly when you consider he’s more than $40,000 cheaper than Rory Laird and $60,000 less than Jake Lloyd. His price shouldn’t climb too drastically this round but make sure he’s on your radar.
Jake Lloyd $608,200 DEF Avg: 127.5 BE: 98 PPC: +$7300
Despite Sydney’s struggles, Lloyd has continued his SuperCoach dominance with scores of 131 and 124. Because of his high price tag, one low score will likely result in him falling below $600,000. The debate has to be whether you can wait long enough and how many points you miss out on while doing so.
Lachie Neale $607,300 MID Avg: 133.5 BE: 85 PPC: +$18,300
We shouldn’t be surprised Neale has fitted so seamlessly into the exciting Brisbane Lions team. The ex-Docker has averaged 109 or better in the past four seasons, but it seems he’s only just getting the attention his brilliance deserves. Understated by gaining popularity fast, with good reason.
Tim Kelly $505,800 FWD-MID Avg: 108.5 BE: 76 PPC: +$12,000
The obvious sideways trade from Isaac Heeney. It’s pure luck Kelly is available as a forward this year and in hindsight the 80% of coaches who overlooked him would love to have started Kelly alongside teammate Patrick Dangerfield. He oozes class and wins the footy with little fuss. Any average about 100 should make him a top forward.
James Worpel $395,700 FWD-MID Avg: 101 BE: 28 PPC: +$25,500
With such a low break-even, you’ll need to jump on the new Hawks midfield hero before Round 3 if you want him. The question to ask yourself before you do is whether you see Worpel being a top-six or top-eight forward at the end of 2019. Make the move if you do.
Brodie Smith $332,500 DEF Avg: 89 BE: 15 PPC: +$24,900
What a start to 2019 by the mid-pricers. Smith has joined the likes of Rockliff, Sheed and Worpel as mid-pricers who will make valuable money in the first half of this season. He’s more than holding his own with an average of 89 dashing off the halfback line for Adelaide.
Nic Newman $394,100 DEF Avg: 108 BE: 13 PPC: +$33,600
Newman scored a monster 134 on debut for Carlton and a respectable 82 in Round 2. As is the case with many mid-pricers, this has to be the week you bring him in if he’s in your sights. You’ll need premium numbers from Newman if you’re going to invest anything above $400,000.
Luke Dahlhaus $418,300 FWD-MID Avg: 103.5 PPC: +$20,500
Dahlhaus was one of the first-picked SuperCoach forwards a few years ago and seems to be relishing his new surrounds in Geelong. He’s only in 7% of teams, with many coaches wary after his performances in recent seasons. But on the early evidence we’ve seen from him this year, Dahlhaus should be an option, especially at his price. Scores of 102 and 105 have been a very encouraging start.
Brad Crouch $418,000 MID Avg: 97.5 PPC: +$16,400
Similarly to Dahlhaus, if you didn’t start Crouch but like what you have seen in the first two rounds, get on board this week. You’d want to be confident he can average above 100 for a full season to add him at the top-end of the mid-price scale.
CHOPPING BLOCK
Isaac Heeney $529,200 FWD-MID Avg: 76 BE: 155 PPC: -$31,200
John Longmire conceded Heeney was carrying an ankle concern after he struggled through the first two rounds. The widely-held expectation was he would spend more time in midfield this year but the injury has consigned him to the forward 50 for much of games against Western Bulldogs and Adelaide. He’s testing our patience but should still be a top-six forward.
Dustin Martin $563,800 MID Avg: 87.5 BE: 152 PPC: -$22,500
Martin spent more than half of Thursday’s loss to Collingwood in attack and his forward role could increase in the next month with Jack Riewoldt ruled out due to injury. Dusty has been below his best so far and although he’ll bounce back, trading him seems a logical move before his price falls. He’s projected to lose $22,500.
Devon Smith $531,300 FWD-MID Avg: 77.5 BE: 153 PPC: -$29,900
Don’t sideways trade. You’ll hear that advice plenty of times this year, but there will always be exceptions to the SuperCoach rules. When you can catch Tim Kelly on the way up and dump Devon Smith before he burns money, it has to be weighed up. Much like his side, Smith has been below his best in the first two rounds.
Elliot Yeo $585,500 MID Avg: 77.5 BE: 185 PPC: -$41,800
Hardly the return we wanted from one of the most expensive midfielders this year, posting 83 and 72 so far. He should be available for about $500,000 in a month when you’d be tempted to jump on if he showed signs of a form reversal. The 8000 teams who started Yeo as a point of difference has a tough call to make.
Callum Mills $428,900 DEF Avg: 64 BE: 121 PPC: -$20,600
Scores of 79 and 49 have Mills firmly on the chopping block this week before he risks dropping below $400,000. This could be your best chance to upgrade him directly to a premium defender before he starts leaking money. You can make almost $100,000 by downgrading Mills to Brodie Smith or $34,000 by turning him into Nic Newman.
MUST-HAVE ROOKIES
DEF
Jordan Clark BE: -51
Xavier Duursma BE: -69
Jack Scrimshaw BE: -48
MID
Zak Butters BE: -63
Charlie Constable BE: -97
RUCK
None
FWD
Matt Parker BE: -108
Willem Drew BE: -121
Will Setterfield BE: -35
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