Richmond’s forward line formula inspires Al Paton’s 2018 SuperCoach strategy

SUPERCOACH expert Al Paton has a midfield that could blow opponents out of the water. But the way he pays for it is a massive risk — if it works it could take him to glory in 2018.

IF IN doubt, copy the premier.

Richmond proved last year you can achieve ultimate success with one very good forward and an army of no-name foot soldiers around him. And I’m following the same path in my pre-season SuperCoach selections.

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My first thought when the 2018 SuperCoach prices were released was that the forwards were going to be this year’s biggest challenge.

Just one listed forward — Sam Menegola — averaged over 100 last season and the top-line picks all have big question marks next to them: Josh Kennedy and Lance Franklin (inconsistent key forwards), Toby Greene (tribunal), Robbie Gray (will he play forward or mid?).

The answer hit me while watching the 2017 Grand Final for about the sixth time last week.

Why spend big bucks on players I don’t trust? My theory entering 2018 is to find value in the forward line and use the money saved to boost all the other lines. And it just so happens that there is a batch of potential bargains in attack this season who can make it work.

Allen Christensen offers potential SuperCoach value after injuries ruined his 2017 season.

I’ve picked Isaac Heeney as my Jack Riewoldt, expecting him to surge to premium status with more time in the Swans midfield (he was almost there last year, averaging 97.6 after glandular fever wiped out his pre-season). Next to him is my Josh Caddy type in Luke Dahlhaus, who couldn’t play worse than he did last year and offers plenty of upside at $498,500.

Then it’s the SuperCoach equivalent of Jason Castagna, Dan Butler and Co — bargain role players and rookies. Allen Christensen has averaged over 90 twice in his career and is looking good so far this pre-season. He’ll need some good JLT Series form before I’m completely sold but there are others who could fill that slot including Brett Deledio ($339k), Rory Lobb ($396) and Hayden Crozier ($341k). (I've got $100k in the bank for late changes.)

The forward line also looks strong for rookies this year with Jarrod Garlott, Luke Ryan and Paul Ahern all potential starters on field. If you don’t know who Zac Giles-Langdon is, neither did I before listening to the latest episode of the Phantom’s Lair podcast.

All up my forward line comes in at a bargain $1.9 million, less than 20 per cent of my salary cap. That means I can spend big in other positions, starting three gun defenders I’m confident will be top six in their position at the end of the year from Round 1 and an extra premium midfielder. Right now that’s Tom Rockliff (I can’t help myself) but again there are several on the pre-season watch list who could fill this spot, effectively a fun throw at the stumps to add to a power-scoring but slightly cookie-cutter midfield.

Al Paton picks his SuperCoach team in February 2018

I’ve also been able to upgrade Nic Naitanui to Stef Martin in the ruck. With no obvious bench rucks or forward-ruck options this year, any game missed by one of our two starting rucks will almost certainly mean a zero on the field. I love Nic Nat but he hasn’t played 22 games since 2010.

It’s pretty straight guns and rookies approach apart from Christensen and Riley Bonner, who are basically expensive rookies. So is Luke Davies-Uniacke, who I expect to start in North Melbourne’s midfield from Round 1.

Tom Rockliff’s role at Port Adelaide will determine his SuperCoach scoring potential.

Can Dustin Martin improve on his incredible 2017 numbers? Picture: Nicole Garmston

Of course, a lot can and will change once we get a look at players in pre-season matches, but I’m just about locked into a cheap forward line.

One decision I have parked for now is the impact of the bye rounds. I might have to plan a weekend off in Round 14 when Patrick Dangerfield, Dustin Martin, Nat Fyfe, Heeney and Rory Laird will all be missing.

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Any game plan based on Richmond’s premiership model has to include Dusty. But can we afford have so many guns missing in one week? On the other hand, can we afford to miss out on all their points until the final nine weeks of the year?

Get back to me on March 21.