KFC SuperCoach trade guide: Top targets for week one of league finals
Getting your captain right can be the difference between victory and defeat in KFC SuperCoach finals. Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako has the numbers you need to know.
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SuperCoaches that missed out on the finals already have one eye on next season. But for those that are still alive, you need to ensure that every move you make from now on counts.
One of the most important moves you make weekly is picking you vice-captain (VC) and captain (C). Quite often, a strong VC/C can be the difference between having an outstanding round compared to one that’s just around par, or even well below.
Picking players with a high ceiling is the key to getting the most out of your VC/C scores and if we analyse players based on how many times, they have exceeded 120 points this season, then Jack Macrae is the standout – achieving that feat no less than 12 times.
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There’s also a strong correlation between Macrae scoring well and the Bulldogs winning, with the side losing just one of the games he has failed to top 120 points. In comparison, the Dogs have a 50 per cent win record when he has dropped below that mark.
Macrae’s ceiling looks to be capped at 149 points, though – he hasn’t broken the 150-point barrier all season.
Macrae’s teammate Marcus Bontempelli is next best with 11 scores over 120 points.
The Bulldogs have won nine of those games and in terms of ceiling, he has Macrae covered – posting three scores between 150-160 points. For what it’s worth, Bontempelli scored 199 points against this round’s opponent Adelaide when the sides clashed in 2020.
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Then we have a host of players win 10 scores over 120 which includes Jack Steele, Touk Miller, Brodie Grundy and Sam Walsh. Two of these players — Steele an Walsh — face off on Friday night and they could even go head-to-head.
Steele has three scores over 150 points, while Walsh has two, including a huge 192-point haul in Round 18 against Collingwood.
One player who continues to fly under the radar is Rory Laird. Consistent returns have made him one of the most reliable SuperCoach assets in the game this season, but he added ceiling to his repertoire on the weekend – piling on a round-high 178 point, his second-biggest on record.
Laird has become one of the most damaging players at centre bounces, ranking third in the competition for centre bounce first possessions. He also ranks fourth for around the ground stoppage first possessions, with only Ollie Wines and Clayton Oliver ranking higher among midfielders.
Below is a breakdown of the players with the most 120-plus scores in 2021:
12 — Jack Macrae (av 128)
11 — Marcus Bontempelli (125)
10 — Jack Steele (125), Touk Miller (121), Brodie Grundy (120), Sam Walsh (119)
9 — Clayton Oliver (122), Max Gawn (120), Jarryd Lyons (117)
8 — Darcy Parish (118), Rory Laird (116)
ROOKIE WATCH
With a host of players self-isolating due to Covid-19 last round, benches were called upon in plenty of SuperCoach teams, as the likes of Callum Mills, Rowan Marshall, Josh Dunkley and Toby Greene were all sidelined. Thankfully, most of these players will return in Round 20 as we prepare for the first round of finals.
Matthew Parker was one player I needed to cover Marshall and he didn’t let me down, scoring a respectable 81 points in his second match in Richmond colours. In fact, he comfortably outscored teammate Shai Bolton,who was a popular trade-in target.
Parker was handed a greater role in the midfield in the absence of Dustin Martin, attending 16 centre bounces – the equal second-most of any Tiger. Parker’s defensive efforts stood out, applying a game-high eight tackles and recording a game-high 70 pressure points. He’s on the bubble this week so if you’re looking for a bench option in attack, he’s the clear standout.
Eagle Connor West scored 55 points in the win over St Kilda but from a role point of view,he wasn’t used at any centre bounces after making brief appearances in the middle on his AFL debut in Round 18. He finished with 11 disposals, six contested possessions, two tackles, five inside-50s and one score assist. Like Parker, he too is on the bubble this round and is an adequate bench option in the run home.
Sam Durham was one of few shining lights for Essendon in its defeat to the Giants last round – scoring 73 points from 75 per cent game time. He won 15 disposals and presented well around the ground, taking seven uncontested marks. His ball use was excellent, recording 12 effective disposals. Durham can be selected either in defence or the midfield as he boasts DPP status.
If you don’t mind spending a bit more, then Josh Schache is a player worth considering as a forward option. He has been switched to defence and impressed in the new role against Melbourne, winning seven intercept possessions, while also grabbing two intercept marks. He also used the ball well, hitting the target with 13 of 17 disposals.
Whatever you decide, make sure you trade wisely and best of luck for the opening round of finals!
THE GUNS TO POWER YOUR FINALS RUN
— Tim Mitchell, Al Paton
The AFL season is tighter than ever and Aussies are going for gold in Tokyo, but there is only one topic on the lips of Aussie sports fans – the start of KFC SuperCoach finals.
The four-week knockout finals series starts in Round 20 and follows the same format as the AFL finals with the top four earning the double chance and facing off in qualifying finals, while the bottom four face off in elimination finals.
If you have any trades in the cupboard, now is the time to pull them out – you can’t carry them to next year.
Available cash and bench cover will determine your priorities – plus a heavy dose of opposition research; now is the perfect time to grab a gun to set your team apart, or to snare your opponent’s big point of difference to cancel out that potential advantage.
With options available for every budget, here are the names to target for the first week of KFC SuperCoach finals.
Clayton Oliver $603,400 MID
Well played if you jumped on Oliver last week at a season-low price of $577,600. The Demons ball magnet rewarded those coaches with 144 points against Western Bulldogs to improve his three-round average to 133.7. Melbourne needs wins to clinch a double chance in the run home, so suggestions from earlier in the season stars such as Oliver, Max Gawn or Christian Petracca could be rested now seem unlikely. Oliver has scores of 106, 174 and 143 in his past three matches against the Dees’ next opponent Gold Coast and shapes as a top captaincy pick for Round 20.
Marcus Bontempelli $608,900 MID
The Brownlow Medal favourite hasn’t been this cheap since Round 8. Bontempelli has lived up to his reputation as one of the premier scorers in KFC SuperCoach with 14 tons from 18 games and a season-low score of 82. Bontempelli appeals over other midfield options because of his massive ceiling. Of his hundreds, 11 have been scores of 125 or better – which meets the captaincy threshold most KFC SuperCoaches use. Don’t worry about the supposed value options in midfield if you have the cash, just pay up and enjoy four weeks of a big gun like Bontempelli.
Rowan Marshall $464,400 RUC-FWD
Marshall has showcased his KFC SuperCoach scoring power in his past three games with scores of 100, 95 and 127. The St Kilda ruckman would have been one of the most popular starting picks of 2021 had it not been for injury. Perhaps most importantly, his time on ground has been steadily building since returning from his latest setback. If you still have a spot available in your forward line, it should be a no-brainer to grab Marshall this week when he returns from a week off in Covid quarantine. It’s an even easier choice if you have North Melbourne’s Jacob Edwards at R3 and can use Marshall as cover in the event one of your starting ruckmen goes down.
Bailey Smith $497,300 MID
After opening the year with a big 123 Bazlenka went 12 rounds without a ton and his price fell as low as $381,700. Then Bevo flicked the switch and in the past five rounds Smith has peeled off scores of 126, 75, 124, 104 and 141. Josh Dunkley and possibly Adam Treloar could return to the Dogs midfield but the cult hero is playing a key role for the best team in the comp right now.
Isaac Heeney $417,200 FWD
Can we trust Heeney? Of course not. Could he peel off four premium-level scores to finish the year? Absolutely. Plenty of KFC SuperCoaches have been burnt by Heeney this year but he has hit 80-plus four rounds in a row capped by a five-goal, 128-point master class against the Dockers. And the Swans finish the year against Essendon, St Kilda, North Melbourne and Gold Coast.
Cam Guthrie $506,800 MID
The Geelong midfielder was unbeatable value before Round 19 at just $483k but he’s still a great buy this week after rising $23k in value following a 120 against the Tigers. He has picked up 35 and 34 touches in his past two rounds, posted three KFC SuperCoach tons in a row and finishes the year against North Melbourne, GWS, St Kilda and Melbourne – the last three at the Cattery (under the current fixture!).
Tom Hawkins $477,800 FWD
Refer to Geelong’s draw above. Picking key forwards is all about timing – riding the rollercoaster all season can be very stressful but if you jump on at the right time it can be the ticket to a KFC SuperCoach premiership. Hawkins has booted four goals in each of his past two games for returns of 128 and 112 points and could have even bigger bags to come.
Daniel Rioli $293,500 FWD
The Tigers haven’t given up on finals this year but Damien Hardwick is casting one eye to 2022 by trying players in new roles, and he has struck gold with the former goalsneak. Retrained as a creative defender, Rioli’s poise and efficiency has stood out over the past two weeks and he has returned KFC SuperCoach scores of 83 and 111 – Richmond’s best against Geelong. If you are scratching around for a very cheap forward, look no further.
Lachie Whitfield $477,600 DEF
Whitfield has three scores of 116 points or better in his past five games, including Sunday’s monster 146 against Essendon. The Giants endurance machine was incredible after halftime, scoring more than 90 of his points from 21 disposals which came at about 90 per cent disposal efficiency. The only reason he’s this cheap is because he was concussed two weeks ago, and with a break even of 105 he’s unlikely to drop further. The Giants need their biggest stars firing to cement a top-eight spot and Whitfield was in ominous form on Sunday. He hasn’t scored less than 90 in his last three against GWS’ next opponent Port Adelaide and has a dominant record against the Giants last two opponents of 2021 – Richmond and Carlton. Jump on now for a huge finals boost.
Caleb Daniel $479,900 DEF
How good did the Dogs’ long-sleeve jumper look on Saturday night? Hopefully Daniel sticks with the fashion statement for the run home because it also delivered a huge KFC SuperCoach spark, powering him to 145 points – his best score of the season. It has been something of a spluttering campaign this year but he has gone under 90 only once in his past seven games and could be a smart pick for the SuperCoach finals.
Tarryn Thomas $463,900 FWD
Just 557 coaches were brave enough to trade in the young Kangaroos gun as a Dustin Martin replacement and they reaped the rewards with a huge 135 points against the Blues. That’s two tons on the trot for Thomas, and an average of 105.8 over his past four games. One thing’s for sure, he would be a fun player to own.
Tim Kelly $443,200 MID
There are a bevy of choices available to coaches hunting a midfield bargain under $500k, with nine players in that price range averaging 100 points or more in the past three rounds. Bailey Smith is the pick of that bunch, but Kelly also represents value at less than $450,000 and could be the man to finish your midfield after scores of 115, 82 and 114 in the past three weeks. Last year, the gun Eagle pumped out 150 points against West Coast’s next opponent Collingwood. Hugh McCluggage is another great option at $489k after scores of 91, 121 and 108 in his past three, but that extra $46k will be tough for most coaches to find.
ROOKIE WATCH
Connor West $102,400 MID
The mature-age Eagle seems to have reasonable short-term job security with Luke Shuey and Jack Redden likely to be at least another week from returning. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. The Eagles are set to play finals and you sense Adam Simpson will be keen to get his best 22 – or close to it – back together as soon as possible. Whether West fits into that mix is debatable, despite a solid start to his AFL career. West has posted scores of 71 and 55 and might be the perfect midfield cover for a few weeks if you missed Lachie Bramble or Jeremy Sharp. If you already have one of that pair, it makes sense to grab either Matt Parker or Sam Durham instead for their DPP status.
Matthew Parker $141,000 FWD-MID
The ex-Saint looks at home playing in the midfield for Richmond and will get ample opportunity to prove himself with Dustin Martin out injured. Dion Prestia’s imminent return might limit his centre bounce attendances slightly, but Parker is racking up KFC SuperCoach points on big tackle numbers alone. In his two games as a Tiger he has averaged 15.5 disposals and 7.5 tackles, impressive numbers which prove he can provide forward or midfield cover from Rounds 20-23. If you need to play a rookie on field, he might be the safest bet. It’s Parker or Sam Durham as the best downgrade option this week, depending on which DPP swing your team needs.
Sam Durham $102,400 DEF-MID
While Essendon has disappointed in recent games, leading coach Ben Rutten to declare it would be making up the numbers in finals, Durham has impressed since debuting in Round 18. His price will rise from the bargain basement $102k after this round and scores of 49 and 73 suggest he can provide handy cover in defence and midfield in the last month of the season. If you’re still carrying a non-playing rookie with DEF-MID swing such as Harry Sharp or Aiden Fyfe, grab Durham and use his DPP swing to cover both lines in the event of injury.
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