KFC SuperCoach trade guide: Fixture analysis reveals top targets for run home
So much for holding trades. KFC SuperCoach teams with Sam Walsh, Will Ashcroft and Jordan Ridley are looking for replacements. See the best picks here + fixture analysis.
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Hold your trades, they said.
Well, the time has arrived.
Will Ashcroft (in 39 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams) suffered an ACL injury and won’t be back until well into next year.
Jordan Ridley (8 per cent ownership) has a “high grade” quad injury and Essendon is hopeful he will return for the last game of the year – but it’s no guarantee.
And Sam Walsh (13 per cent) is set to miss up to three of the remaining five games after hurting his hamstring against the Eagles.
The first two are must-trades and while you could pray for an early Walsh return, a trade is likely to yield the most points if you have one to spare.
All three are in a similar price bracket – Ashcroft is $510k, Ridley $513k and Walsh $535k – so the bucket of replacements covers all three (most coaches have a dual-position link between the midfield, defence and forward lines allowing us to replace Ridley with a midfielder, for example, or Walsh with a forward).
If you have enough cash to bring in a player like Tom Liberatore or Christian Petracca, go for it. But most of us aren’t that lucky. (Luke Davies-Uniacke might be attainable at $586k after three straight scores between 129 and 134.)
Who can deliver the best bang for buck in the last five games? Here are our top picks.
ZAK BUTTERS $529,100 MID/FWD
After hitting $658k Butters has shed more than $120,000 over the past six weeks and is remarkably now available for $300 under his starting price. In a mid-year burst Butters averaged 129 over six rounds that reeled in his Brownlow odds, but he has managed just two tons in his past six with a high of 109 in that time. But he hasn’t gone under 81, his game style perfectly suits the KFC SuperCoach scoring system, he has the highest ceiling of anyone in this price range – scoring a season-high 184 against Melbourne – and a nice looking fixture to come, finishing the year against Fremantle and Richmond. That makes him the standout choice – if you can handle the stress of watching him hurtle himself head-first into dangerous situations every week.
SAM FLANDERS $467,000 MID/FWD
The hype is officially real. Flanders started the year stuck behind Touk Miller, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson in the Gold Coast midfield pecking order, but he has now gone past all of them with the highest five-round average (110.6) of any Sun. Crucially, Flanders was Gold Coast’s No.1 centre bounce midfielder last weekend against GWS, attending 69 per cent – ahead of Rowell (65), Anderson (65) and Miller (46). And he is excelling in the role with 31 disposals and nine clearances against the Giants. He’s an exciting option who could leave a bit of cash in the bank for future trades.
JACK STEELE $553,900 MID
He’s back. Some coaches might be priced out after Steele’s $52k price spike this week, but he’s just $18k from Walsh and should be right at the top of the shopping list. The Saints skipper has battled this season but has now strung together three big scores in the past three rounds, capped off by a 160-point monster against the Kangaroos when Steele carried his team to a season-saving win. When he’s on, Steele is one of the best players in the AFL to barrack for and he ticks all the right boxes for KFC SuperCoach scoring as a ball-winning tackling machine. St Kilda plays its next four matches at Marvel Stadium and Steele will have to keep playing like that if the Saints are any hope of hanging on to their spot in the eight.
MASON REDMAN $457,100 DEF
If you want a like-for-like replacement for Ridley – or can swing some DPP moves like shifting Nick Daicos or Jordan Dawson into the midfield – Redman is the kind of high-risk, potentially very high reward play that is worth considering at this time of year. He hasn’t hit the ton for five weeks but has a 99 and 98 in that time, and Essendon’s draw is about to open up in a huge way (see below), with the Bombers’ next three games against Sydney, West Coast and North Melbourne. Redman historically scores much better in wins than losses and is capable of huge numbers, as evidenced by his 144 against the Eagles in round 11. And with no Ridley, he’ll be the Don’s main outlet out of defence. Does playing for a new contract make a difference?
LUKE JACKSON $457,200 RUC/FWD
A massive POD in just 7 per cent of teams, Jackson is set to shoulder the ruck load for the Dockers with Sean Darcy set to miss the rest of the season. He has scored well in three games in that role this season – scoring 119, 118 and 100. He can provide some ruck insurance which could be vital if you are going down to one or even zero trades – especially after Ross Lyon revealed that Rowan Marshall had to pass a fitness test to play against the Kangaroos.
GEORGE HEWETT $292,500 MID
Tim Michell flagged Hewett as the bargain of the KFC SuperCoach season two weeks ago when he returned to the Blues’ best 18 after being used as the sub by Michael Voss. After warming up with 78 points against Port Adelaide, Hewett exploded with 127 from 31 disposals against West Coast – and his role won’t be going away any time soon with Walsh out injured, and Patrick Cripps and Adam Cerra also no certainties to play this week. There is some risk he is pushed out again at some point, but the value is incredible for a player who averaged 111 points a game last year.
Fixture analysis: Who has dream SuperCoach finals run?
Put Darcy Parish at the top of your trade hit list.
The Bombers midfielder features in just 4 per cent of teams right now, but squads with the ability to bring him in could be rewarded in a huge way.
Parish has averaged 110 in his five matches since returning from injury, but it’s Essendon’s fixture that will have owners’ – and prospective buyers’ – eyes lighting up.
The Bombers face West Coast in round 21 and North Melbourne the following week, the two teams that have given up the most points to opposition midfielders this season. If you need a reminder of what that could mean, Parish scored 136 and 115 in his past two games against the Eagles, and 152 and 138 in his past two against North.
Get on.
With trades running low and teams looking similar, taking a close look at the fixture can pay big dividends in the lead-in to finals for most head-to-head leagues, which kick off in round 21. It can help make those crucial calls on how to use final trades and where to place the VC and C each round.
It’s no surprise to learn the Eagles and Kangaroos have conceded plenty of KFC SuperCoach points this season, but we’ve dug deeper to find the easiest and hardest teams to score against in every position.
If you’re one of the 74,000 coaches with Will Ashcroft, you’ll need about $73,000 to swap him to Parish after the Rising Star favourite suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Cats.
Owners of Sam Walsh and Jordan Ridley might also need replacements after both suffered cruel soft-tissue injuries when they were on track for huge scores in round 19.
Hopefully Rory Laird will return this week but if you’ve still got a rookie somewhere on field, it’s time to use those precious trades to turn them into a player who can make a difference in the run home (unless it’s Marcus Windhager, who appears capable of premium-level scoring).
Here’s who to target for a big final five weeks.
DEFENCE
Easiest teams to score against: St Kilda, North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Richmond
Hardest teams to score against: Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane
The Saints have given up more points to defenders than any other team this season, highlighted by James Sicily’s 172-point return in round 11. And guess who plays the Saints next weekend? St Kilda faces Carlton (Sam Docherty), Richmond, Geelong (Tom Stewart) and Brisbane in its last four games. North Melbourne doesn’t run into many popular KFC SuperCoach defenders in its final five matches unless Jordan Ridley recovers from a quad injury by round 22. The Suns have the Crows, Swans, Blues and Kangaroos in the KFC SuperCoach finals, which could be good news for Docherty (again), Jake Lloyd and Harry Sheezel. Richmond is also prone to bombing to intercept defenders (exhibit A Sicily on Saturday) so expect plenty of marks from Steven May (r20) and Callum Wilkie (r22).
On the other side of the ledger, Sicily might find the going tougher against the Dees in round 23.
Perhaps surprisingly, the Eagles rank mid-table when it comes to giving up points to opposition defenders.
MIDFIELD
Easiest teams to score against: West Coast, North Melbourne, Fremantle
Hardest teams to score against: Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Carlton
It’s a different story in the midfield, where opposition onballers have run riot against West Coast all year. That could mean some huge scores in the run home from the likes of Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish (r21), Andy Brayshaw and Caleb Serong (r22), Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore (r23) and Rory Laird and Jordan Dawson in KFC SuperCoach grand final week.
Christian Petracca could be a great captain option in round 22 when he faces North Melbourne – who just conceded 160 points to Jack Steele – while Touk Miller, Matt Rowell and Sam Flanders will be hoping to finish the year with big games against the Kangaroos.
Fremantle has also given up bulk points to opposition midfielders, so Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley will be licking their lips ahead of their trip to Perth in round 21. In SuperCoach grand final week it could be a good time to have Jai Newcombe or James Worpel in your side.
Meanwhile, there’s a red flag next to Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly, who face the Dogs – the toughest team for midfielders to score against – next round.
Geelong has also done a great job of restricting midfielders this season and they have some interesting match-ups to come including Collingwood in r22, St Kilda in r23 and Bont and the Bulldogs in the final game of the year.
RUCK
Easiest teams to score against: Port Adelaide, West Coast, ??, Sydney
Hardest teams to score against: Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Carlton
Darcy Cameron’s 135 points on Saturday night was the latest big ruck score against Port Adelaide this year. If you’re thinking of offloading Kieren Briggs, it might be worth waiting until after he meets the Power in round 22.
Bailey Williams has improved as the season has progressed but Tim English (r23) will be hoping for another big return when he faces the Eagles in prelim final week for head-to-head leagues.
English has another great match-up against Briggs next round, while the Swans have also given up some big ruck scores – good news for Briggs in round 21, Jarrod Witts in round 22 and Max Gawn in the final round.
Witts has been the toughest ruck match-up this year but doesn’t face many popular fantasy picks from here unless you’ve got Reilly O’Brien or Marc Pittonet.
Todd Goldstein could make life tough for Gawn next week.
FORWARDS
Easiest teams to score against: West Coast, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Adelaide
Hardest teams to score against: Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane
Charlie Curnow has kicked 19 goals and scored a combined 364 KFC SuperCoach points in two games against the Eagles this year. Taylor Walker will be hoping for a similar return against the Eagles in the final home-and-away round to challenge Charlie for the Coleman Medal.
Could Jake Stringer or Luke Jackson have a day out against the Eagles? Stringer also tackles the Roos, while Shai Bolton could be the danger man when the Tigers face North Melbourne in round 23.
Curnow filled his boots on Saturday but he has the two toughest match-ups for forwards to come – Collingwood next week and Melbourne in round 22.
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