KFC SuperCoach trade grades: Expert rate big Round 8 moves
Marty Frederick’s omission from Port Adelaide’s 22 has thrown up a KFC SuperCoach trade curveball. See who our experts are now trading in and out this week.
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Getting low-scoring rookies off the field is the top priority for most KFC SuperCoaches, so is trading in another backline cheapie a smart move?
Port Adelaide’s Martin Frederick is the most traded-in player for Round 8, but he’s been dropped, catapulting a number of other names onto the trade radar with a host of value picks presenting themselves in the backline and midfield.
And an electric Tiger could be a cheap solution to our forward line woes.
See the big moves our experts are making, in the wake of Friday morning’s news from Alberton, and scroll down to see their ratings of all the most popular trades for Round 8.
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AL PATON
My trades: Heath Chapman to Steven May, James Rowe to Riley Collier-Dawkins.
My original plan was to trade Rowe to Martin Frederick but that went out the window on Friday afternoon. I actually prefer my team a lot more with this move - a stronger midfield bench and Isaac Cumming at D6. I’m always wary of trading in a rookie after one game but RCD’s job security looks strong (help a Tiger tragic out, Dimma) and it opens the door for a downgrade next week to another promising bubble boy - I’ll by watching Ryan Byrnes and Caleb Poulter very closely this weekend. Chapman has been on field for me in defence for the past month and it will be a relief to swap out his 30-something scores for a player who can go 100-plus, especially when the price difference is only $160,000.
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TIM MICHELL
My trades: Heath Chapman to Steven May, second trade depends on teams.
You’re thinking about burning a third trade on Steven May, I hear you ask? I know, it’s crazy and in any normal year I wouldn’t do it. But I hate the thought of thousands of KFC SuperCoaches jumping on May at $408k and having him averaging 100 or more for the rest of the year and missing out. Yes, I have Steven May FOMO. That’s because I traded him in for scores of 78 and 7, traded him out when Melbourne said he was out 2-4 weeks and don’t want to now risk everyone else benefiting from my trade misfortune. I don’t think I can handle 13-14 weeks of podcasts with Dan and Al telling me how good May is doing for their teams.
Chapman is out for an extended period so it’s an easy trade to make and only costs about half of my bank after I downgraded Errol Gulden to Jy Farrar last round. The other option defensively is going Chapman to a rookie - originally it was Marty Frederick - which would mean I could trade James Rowe to a big dog in midfield. It would mean paying $40k extra for May next week but having peace of mind about his role without Adam Tomlinson. I’d love to offload Rowe or Sam Berry but don’t have any real urgency to make it happen and might even hold my second trade. The other move I am seriously considering is Rowe to Jake Stringer. Yep, you heard right, Jake Stringer. Average 83, four scores 84 or more. And only $325k.
THE PHANTOM
My trades: Josh Dunkley to Josh Kelly/Tom Mitchell, Heath Chapman to Steven May.
Yes, yes, I know, I should’ve traded Dunkley last week but we’re here now. I’m still not sure about the forwards, I’d rather give Rowan Marshall another run and wait for Zak Butters and Patrick Dangerfield. So I’ll use the injured Bulldog to take advantage of the value on offer in the midfield this round and finish off that part of my team first. But I’m still deciding which fallen premium I’ll go with. There are concerns over both but the chance Kelly reverts back to the forward role he played early in the season probably pushes the equation in Mitchell’s favour. The ball magnet has struggled to make his possession count at times but, after a limited pre-season, he’s only likely to improve on his 102-point average from here. And Chapman to May is a no-brainer, really. With less than $10k in the bank after these trades, I’ll be looking at one up, one down next week.
DAN BATTEN
My trades: Josh Dunkley and James Rowe/Chris Burgess for Shai Bolton and Steven May.
I went all out to continue copying The Phantom by also forgetting to trade out Dunkley last week. The mistake led me to take a punt on Martin Frederick a week early to ensure I’d be able to bring in two premiums ahead of Round 8, which has sensationally backfired. I will weigh up whether to upgrade another failed trade in, Chris Burgess, or James Rowe, depending on team announcements. May’s price is too good to ignore for a player likely to average 95-plus from here. I was bullish on Rowan Marshall – the player I was planning to trade in for Dunkley – but buying two Round 14 bye players in Clayton Oliver and May has forced me to look elsewhere. Bolton is in fantastic form and should benefit from enhanced midfield opportunity with both Trent Cotchin and Dion Prestia sidelined.
TRADE GRADES: MOST TRADED OUT PLAYERS
HEATH CHAPMAN $250,500 DEF
Al Paton: TRADE — Remember when he scored 91 four weeks ago? Those were the days. Scores have nosedived since (even though he was playing hurt on the weekend) and he has to go.
Tim Michell: TRADE — Gutsy effort to battle on after hurting his shoulder but his KFC SuperCoach run is over. Up to Steven May or down to Martin Frederick is what everyone will do. Both easy enough moves to make.
The Phantom: TRADE — The young Docker lost $12k last round and, with a break even of 85, is set to drop further. Hello, Steven May.
Dan Batten: TRADE — A long-term injury means he won’t lose cash, but he might just leave you with a doughnut on field. An upgrade to May or a downgrade to Martin Frederick loom as the best moves.
ERROL GULDEN $297,800 FWD
AP: TRADE — There are worse rookies going around but he’s losing money so use him while he has the value to get you a premium scorer.
TM: HOLD — Weird considering I traded last week but something clicked for Errol against the Cats. Was on zero points at quarter-time and then found his spunk again. I’d be OK with playing him at M8 for a few more weeks.
TP: TRADE — A similar story to Chapman. Gulden might hang around for a while but he could lose more cash. Upgrade if you can, otherwise he could become Riley Collier-Dawkins next week.
DB: TRADE — His scoring has reverted to that of a stock standard rookie, but there is no harm in holding Gulden and trading other poorer performing cheapies.
JAMES ROWE 4234,000 FWD
AP: TRADE — I’m not usually a rage trader but I confess Rowe was out of my team about 9.31pm on Sunday night. His Round 1 performance was one for the ages but his 77 break even this week may as well be 700.
TM: TRADE — I don’t think he’s scored more than 40 when I’ve played him on field. Apart from Steven May he’s been my most frustrating player this year. If you can use DPP and turn him into Frederick you’re absolutely flying. Don’t think twice about it.
TP: TRADE/HOLD — Last week aside, Rowe has been good at home this year — and the Crows are at Adelaide Oval again in the Showdown. Ideally, you get him off field, but who do you upgrade him to?
DB: TRADE — Four scores of 40 or less for Rowe now. With a nightmare month coming up, some stinkers could be on the way — if he doesn’t get dropped first.
BRAEDEN CAMPBELL $235,800 MID/FWD
AP: TRADE — Had a good game in the reserves so he could return this week but no issues with moving him on if you can add better scoring player to your side.
TM: HOLD — Unless you’re going to cop a doughnut. That is if you can use him as a loophole to get a look at a rookie playing early such as Jordan Clark or Finn Macrae. Otherwise, cash in.
TP: TRADE/HOLD — Not losing any cash playing in the reserves but you don’t want your non-playing rookies to pile up. Maybe he becomes RCD next week if you still have Gulden.
DB: HOLD — Not an absolute must to trade out considering he is out of the side and scored 120 points in VFL this week. But if it is to avoid a zero, by all means trade.
MATT FLYNN $273,000 RUC
AP: HOLD — Has become an interesting conundrum but I’m not in a rush to get rid of him even though Mummy is still clearly top dog at GWS.
TM: HOLD — But I can understand why you want to cash in. Mummy is the No.1 ruckman at GWS now and Flynn isn’t going to make the money we need fast. Then again, we might need him in Round 14 — if he plays, of course. It’s a tricky one but I’d trade Rowe first.
TP: HOLD — Unless he’s still your R2 — then you need to bite the bullet and restructure. If he’s at R3, we’ll get a few mores games — albeit not consecutive — out of him, meaning more cash. Once you grab Rowan Marshall, then you can cash Flynn in for a non-playing ruck-fwd.
DB: HOLD — Shane Mumford will only last another couple of weeks at best before his next rest, which should see Flynn shoot above $300k.
JOSH DUNKLEY $634,100 FWD/MID
AP: TRADE — Is this Dan and Phantom after missing lockout last week? Had to feel for both of them but I am slightly jealous of the $630k they have to spend this week.
TM: TRADE — I’d be going straight to Clayton Oliver, Jarryd Lyons or Sam Walsh via DPP.
TP: TRADE — Maybe you’re like me and missed the lockout last Friday night. Oops. I’m thinking a premium midfield replacement — the forwards are still a mess. Josh Kelly?
DB: TRADE — Triggered... After my howler last Friday in missing lockout, I will be trading Dunkley — another 11 weeks is a bit too long to wait.
PATRICK CRIPPS $448,800 MID
AP: HOLD — What a bust. His KFC SuperCoach numbers are his worst since his debut year but he is getting his hands on the footy, so surely it will turn ... won’t it?
TM: TRADE — Hurts me to say it because I love Crippa. But I thought his last quarter against Essendon would’ve been worth about 50 points and that was about what he scored for the entire game. You’re giving up too many points even if he’s your finishing M8.
TP: HOLD — He has the second-most clangers in the league and his kick rating ranks 247th of the 253 players to have recorded 50-plus kicks this year. In saying that, get your rookies off field first.
DB: HOLD — As tempting as it might be to trade, getting low-scoring rookies like Rowe off your field will improve your team faster. Cripps to an actual midfield premium can be a luxury trade once you (hopefully) reach full premium.
TAYLOR WALKER $464,000 FWD
AP: TRADE — Tex has provided a spectacular ride and cash injection but his next month — Port, Eagles, Demons, Tigers — could eat into all that hard-earned cash. Wouldn’t be my top priority this week but start thinking about cashing him in.
TM: HOLD — Why would you trade the No.3 ranked forward based on one bad score? The forward line is an absolute dumpster fire and there’s not exactly any decent replacements. I can understand the appeal of a DPP move to someone like May but why do that when there’s about 15 great defenders and maybe six decent forwards actually playing?
TP: HOLD — Struggled against the Giants in Round 7 and it could happen again with the difficulty of the Crows’ next month. But I’d be sorting out your other issues first — Walker losing some cash won’t be a huge problem.
DB: TRADE — The sixth ranked SuperCoach in the land will be saying goodbye to the Texan, which is a good shout for those with trades up their sleeve with Adelaide’s upcoming month. However, those burning through trades might need to hold firm for now.
CHAD WARNER $329,800 FWD
AP: HOLD — Has slowed a bit but his average is still above his break even and I feel a lot more confident starting him on the field up forward than some other cheapies.
TM: HOLD — Are you serious? He attends bulk centre bounces and has a great run of fixtures after Melbourne this week. Please hit reverse trade before you regret this.
TP: HOLD — The second-year Swan still features prominently in the midfield for Sydney and he’s still one we can trust on-field for the time being.
DB: HOLD — Still getting plenty of midfield time and average (78) is not too far off the dumpster fire that is this year’s top 10 forwards.
LACHIE NEALE $578,700 MID
AP: TRADE — Unless we hear word of a miraculous early comeback there are a lot of good players you can get with that money.
TM: TRADE — If he’s four weeks away I’d be tempted to hold but seems more likely to be out for longer. Hugh McCluggage is flying in his absence, too.
TP: HOLD/TRADE — If you held last week and can make one upgrade for each of the next three rounds, I’d stick with him.
DB: TRADE — Another 6-7 weeks out for Neale, which is too long to wait.
MOST TRADED IN PLAYERS
MARTIN FREDERICK $123,900 DEF
AP: BUY — Port has good players knocking on the door so he has to keep playing well to hold his spot but on current form — and the amount of money most of my bench rookies are making (not much) — I’m backing him in.
TM: BUY — Projected to make $75k this week alone. His job security is likely an issue but Lachie Jones — who might be his stiffest competition — is still 2-3 weeks away. The only question for many will be do you give up on Tom Highmore to get Frederick in?
TP: BUY — He’s going to make some serious cash but is he a must-have? I don’t think so, given his longer-term job security isn’t as strong as some think.
DB: BUY — Riley Bonner played well in the reserves, yes, but Hamish Hartlett had just eight touches in the loss to Brisbane, and Lachie Jones remains at least three weeks away. Frederick has shown plenty with his agility and clean disposal to get at least another couple of games, which makes him more of a risk to avoid than to buy with a break even of -88.
RILEY COLLIER-DAWKINS $123,900 MID
AP: PASS — for one more week. Loved his first game and he should have a solid midfield role for a while with Trent Cotchin out, but his price won’t change for another week so we can afford to wait.
TM: BUY — Looked polished against the best midfield in the game and his contested work suits KFC SuperCoach. I’d have no hesitation going early after Trent Cotchin’s hamstring injury.
TP: WAIT/BUY — His debut was worth the wait but, if you can, give him another week before jumping on.
DB: WAIT — While he is locked in for a second game after a promising debut, let’s not jump the gun on a youngster who was a KFC SuperCoach urban legend until last week.
STEVEN MAY $408,600 DEF
AP: BUY — My expectations aren’t as high as some (I think a 95 average is around the mark) but each year we get one or two players who crash in price and the value is too good to pass up, especially when we are struggling to find cash for other trades.
TM: BUY — As much as it pains me to say. You’ve probably heard my tale of woe, but I paid $507k for May then traded after his score of seven when Melbourne said he was out for 2-4 weeks. Of course, he only missed one. I’m still dirty. The turnoffs are the Round 14 bye and the fact he might have to play more of a lockdown role now Adam Tomlinson is out. But still hard to overlook at that price. Caleb Daniel is just as good an option though and I can’t understand why the number of trades this week aren’t closer. May isn’t going to take 15 marks every week ... something to consider. Rant over.
TP: BUY — Next.
DB: BUY — Bargain buys must not be sniffed at in 2021. A gift from the KFC SuperCoach Gods.
CAM GUTHRIE $588,000 MID
AP: BUY — I looked closely at Guthrie last week and got Christian Petracca instead. Oops. Has tonned up in six of his seven games including a 132 last round (compared to Petracca’s 78). Round 12 bye is pretty friendly, too.
TM: BUY — If you’ve got the cash. I think Andy Brayshaw, Josh Kelly and Tom Mitchell can average similar from here for 70-80k less, though.
TP: BUY/PASS — He’s the real deal but in a season when cash generation has been difficult for some, I prefer the value options this week — think Andrew Brayshaw, Josh Kelly and Tom Mitchell.
DB: BUY — Is scoring as well as anyone and has a nice run of games following this week’s Grand Final rematch..
CALEB POULTER $117,300 FWD/MID
AP: PASS — See my verdict on Collier-Dawkins. DPP could be handy, but I would like another look at him before committing.
TM: PASS — Use DPP and grab RCD or Frederick instead. Better to watch him for another week.
TP: WAIT — He was a standout over here in the SANFL last year and he did enough on debut to keep his spot for a while. But give him another week.
DB: WAIT — Prefer RCD at this stage but Poulter could prove to be a solid cash cow — especially if Collingwood keep the faith with its kids.
RILEY THILTHORPE $202,800 FWD/RUC
AP: PASS — Just too expensive for a rookie ruckman. I’d rather keep Flynn until the byes then trade him to a $117k DPP.
TM: PASS — First game was incredible but only 10 disposals and no goals in his second. Has the Round 14 bye, too, so he can’t cover Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy.
TP: PASS — A KFC SuperCoach star of the future but his scoring will be up-and-down this year, especially given Adelaide’s upcoming fixture. At the price, he doesn’t make you enough cash from Flynn to justify the trade just yet.
DB: PASS — While his FWD/RUC status has value, his high asking price means he won’t make enough cash to be a worthwhile selection.
SHAI BOLTON $479,400 MID/FWD
AP: BUY — Wish I could find a way to bring him into my forward line. Averaging 110 over his past four.
TM: BUY — Tweeted two weeks ago he’d be a top-six forward if he stayed fit and everything I’ve seen since has only made me more confident. Scores points quickly — he got 70 after halftime to post 99 against St Kilda.
TP: BUY — He was great last week. In fact, his scoring has been great this year, apart from the Round 3 disaster against the Swans.
DB: BUY — My preferred trade option for Dunkley this week. His enhanced midfield role should continue with Cotchin and Dion Prestia missing for at least the next three weeks, making it the perfect time to pounce.
SAM WALSH $606,300 MID
AP: BUY — Could he win the Brownlow? Could he be a captaincy option? He is about a fair price though after rising $63k this year (break even 102).
TM: BUY — The 2021 Brownlow medallist played 97 per cent of game time against Essendon and was still running as hard as anyone at the end. He’s easily Carlton’s best player and a tag must be coming soon. Wouldn’t surprise me if he just ran a tagger into the ground anyway. Did I mention I support Carlton?
TP: BUY/PASS — The value is probably still hard to ignore but he’s not getting any cheaper this year. He’s one I did get right.
DB: BUY — Forget top eight, could Walsh be a top four midfielder by season’s end?
TRADE GUIDE: ALL THIS WEEK’S TOP TRADE TARGETS
ANDREW BRAYSHAW $507,700 MID
AP: BUY — A slightly bizarre scoring profile with two very ordinary games in R3-4 (66, 48) and 112-plus every other week. Love the way he plays, just keep an eye on Freo injury reports after he rolled his ankle in the derby.
TM: BUY — I should have jumped on last week but somehow ended up going Gulden down to Jy Farrar instead. Don’t ask. The obvious concern is how his scoring dropped when tagged by Carlton and Hawthorn. Plus the Round 14 bye. But I think the regular 110-plus scores negate any possible tags.
TP: BUY — Still so much value at $507k. The attention will come but he’ll get better at working through it. And when he’s given space, he’ll go big.
DB: BUY — Remains at a great price and is a better option than Kelly and Mitchell at this stage, despite his Round 14 bye.
TOM HICKEY $448,400 RUC
AP: PASS — Not sure who is buying a $400k ruckman at this point? Has been amazing this year but aim higher! Max Gawn is set to lose about $80k over the next two weeks.
TM: BUY — As long as you’re not dumping Gawn or Grundy. He has the fourth best ruck average this year. No.3? Shane Mumford.
TP: PASS — Another remarkable performance, not only to get back in two weeks but to post another KFC SuperCoach ton. But just get the cash to go straight to the big boys.
DB: PASS — Has Gawn and Grundy in his next two weeks which will really test him.
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