KFC SuperCoach: Steven May is a discounted premium stock we can’t ignore

Demon trap or fallen angel? Discounted stars are up for grabs this week, and the KFC SuperCoach Investor reveals his trade plans.

The market was rocked by a weekend of volatility and underwhelming scores from some of the finest blue chip assets in the KFC SuperCoach portfolio.

The 2000-point barrier, which is typically our pass mark, was a rarity among investors.

We’re not here to focus on the past, folks, but instead on the opportunities – big and small – that present themselves on the eve of Round 8.

The KFC SuperCoach Investor, Daniel Begala, shares his insights on the key decisions impacting coaches as we approach a week dominated by discounted premiums, rookie riches and the upcoming byes.

FALLEN ANGELS

It’s like clockwork.

Each year investors are rewarded with a small set of discounted premiums – “The Fallen Angels” – who look too good to be true.

This week it’s defensive duo Steven May ($408k DEF) and Caleb Daniel ($412k DEF), who offer substantial upside and are available at material discounts to their starting prices.

As the saying goes, you shouldn’t stare a gift horse in the mouth.

May is averaging 104 points per game if you disregard his injury-affected performance in Round 4, when he was subbed out on 7 KFC SuperCoach points after copping a nasty knock to the eye.

If you crunch the numbers, May is currently the seventh-best defensive option, occupying real estate between Jack Bowes (sixth) and Daniel Rich (eighth).

That’s a steal. That’s – dare I say it – ARBITRAGE.

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Steven May presents huge value this week in KFC SuperCoach.

The same goes for the Bulldogs’ quarterback Caleb Daniel, who roared back into form and showed glimpses of his absolute best against the Tigers.

Yes, he’s averaging only 93 KFC SuperCoach points if you disregard the disappointing performance in Ballarat (19), but Daniel is a bona fide top-six defender who will thrive if given the opportunity at D6.

Points scored in the first seven rounds are irrelevant, what they score for your team from here is what matters.

As they say in the investment frontier, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, so it’s vital that you turn your attention to May and Daniel who loom as the bargains of FY21 and could be among the best defensive scorers from here on in.

ROOKIE RICHES

The royalties are starting to flow.

We’ve been rewarded with our patience and some quality assets – including Martin Frederick and Riley Collier-Dawkins – have presented themselves at the latest investor roadshow.

There aren’t many – if any – free lunches in finance, but Martin Frederick ($124K DEF) could buck the trend.

Yes, there’s certainly a degree of job security concern when you’re on the roster of a top four-bound team, but with his price set to rise ~$60k this week, it’s a calculated risk that you simply must take.

The Begala Brigade will be leveraging the flexibility of his portfolio to convert one of his most volatile stocks, James Rowe (FWD), into Frederick via DPP.

I will lose flexibility in the move but appreciate the opportunity to jettison a rookie who could be on the verge of a stint in the SANFL.

TRADE GUIDE: IS MARTIN FREDERICK A MUST-HAVE?

Martin Frederick is this week’s must-have rookie.

e other candidate – for early acquisition – is Collier-Dawkins, who has been honing his craft for two seasons and finally secured a berth in the Tigers’ engine room.

The SuperCoach Investor is bullish on Collier-Dawkins after he thrived on debut — attending 68 per cent of centre bounces — and will benefit from the absence of captain Trent Cotchin.

It’s not often that I advocate jumping early on penny stocks, but Collier-Dawkins could provide immediate reinforcement at M8 with players such as Errol Gulden showing signs of fatigue and delivering sporadic dividends.

I’m hoping to acquire Collier-Dawkins next week and with the capital raised, introduce someone like Josh Kelly or Tom Mitchell to my line-up.

BYE, BYE, BYE

Like the iconic boy band NSYNC, it’s time to say “Bye, Bye, Bye”.

We’re only five weeks from the most challenging period of the KFC SuperCoach calendar.

It’s time to take heed and brace yourself for the byes (Round 12, 13 and 14) and the selection challenges they bring.

Every trade from now on must be for the betterment of your portfolio during the byes.

What does that mean?

Firstly you need to determine your spread of unavailable stocks across Rounds 12-14 and ascertain where you’re most vulnerable and light on for scoring power.

The diversification at The Begala Brigade is likely to pay dividends with 10 players currently unavailable for selection in each week of the byes.

It feels comfortable now, but boy, how quickly things can change.

If you’re going to be short-staffed in any one week of the byes, it’s integral that every trade you perform between now and then is accretive to your side – i.e. you’re adding reinforcement and players where you are most deficient.

Once we get to the byes, though, it’s a different story. This is a period you can use to supercharge your side towards a fully-fledged premium portfolio with stars on every line.

The KFC SuperCoach Investor currently boasts a shortfall of six premium players from his portfolio and envisages – all else being equal – having a completed (or close to) side once the curtain draws on the byes.

It’s bullish, yes, but a stretch target all great coaches should plan for.

Embrace the byes. Embrace the planning. It could be the making of spirited run to rankings, or better yet, eternal league glory.

Trade well, investors.