KFC SuperCoach Round 7 trade guide: Best Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale replacements
Jack Macrae is one of two standout trade options for Lachie Neale or Josh Dunkley, according to Champion Data’s KFC SuperCoach expert. The other name might surprise you.
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Injuries to premiums are a KFC SuperCoach killer!
SuperCoaches were hit by a wrecking ball last round as the second-most selected player in the competition, Dustin Martin, could manage only an injury-affected 39 points. To compound the matter, he now misses Round 7 with concussion. That’s not the worst of it.
The 10th most selected player in the competition, Josh Dunkley suffered a serious shoulder injury against the Giants, but not before scoring 132 points. His prognosis is a 12 to 16-week stint on the sidelines as he goes under the knife. There’s more.
Last year’s Brownlow Medallist, Lachie Neale, suffered a nasty ankle injury against the Blues and will now miss up to eight weeks as a direct result. To his credit though, he played out the match and scored a respectable 96 points.
If you own all three of the aforementioned players, then Round 7 could pose plenty of problems.
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As we look to deal with the carnage, there’s no need to trade out Martin as he should miss just the one game, however, Dunkley and Neale must be replaced ASAP!
Considering Dunkley is the third-most expensive midfielder in the league, replacing him shouldn’t be an issue as only Jack Steele and Jack Macrae are more expensive among midfielders. If you don’t have a dual-position swing and Dunkley is stuck in your forwards, then your pool of replacements is a lot smaller as there are only four forwards that average 100 points, one of which is Dunkley.
Ideally, you should be able to swing Dunkley into the midfield and then target a blue-chip gun. The ever-reliable Macrae should be top of your wish list and if we look at the past four rounds, he ranks No.1 for points scored by midfielders and fourth overall.
Macrae averages 35 disposals, 14 contested possessions, five tackles and 133.2 points. Dunkley’s injury shouldn’t impact his output in the coming weeks.
If you’re looking for some value, then Sam Walsh ticks that box. He has taken over as Carlton’s No.1 midfielder – averaging 30.8 disposals and 121.2 points over the past four rounds. The biggest improvement in his game this year has been his kicking, improving his kicking efficiency by 14 per cent, the sixth-biggest increase by any player in the league. Walsh is also one of just 10 players to average at least 30 disposals a game this season.
Macrae and Walsh are also excellent options as replacements for Lachie Neale.
If we look at the forwards, then Steele Sidebottom has stormed into calculations on the back of a season-high 30 disposals and 119 points. He also attended a season-high 88 per cent of centre bounces.
Rowan Marshall is also an option after returning from injury, however, be mindful that Paddy Ryder is all but certain to return to the Saints side in Round 7.
The there’s Jack Ziebell. Paying an extra $283,500 more than his starting price may put some off, but his form is undeniable – scoring at least 145 points in three of his past four games.
TOP-SCORING MIDFIELDERS SINCE ROUND 3
Jack Macrae 133.2
Nat Fyfe 126.3
Jack Steele 124.2
David Mundy 124
Mitch Duncan 122.8
Jarryd Lyons 122
Cam Guthrie 121.8
Sam Walsh 121.2
Jaeger O’Meara 120
Christian Petracca 117.5
Zach Merrett 116.2
ROOKIE WATCH
Last week’s carnage will impact this week’s trades, and plenty of SuperCoaches will be forced to keep the likes of Jordan Clark, Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden for another week.
Campbell scored 35 points after coming on as the medial sub, while Clark also came on late in the match to score just 13 points and suffer his first price fall of the season. Gulden’s scores have completely dried up – posting a season-low 38 points against the Suns.
In terms of players on the bubble, Jy Farrar and Atu Bosenavulagi are options, although they are slightly more expensive than your basement-price rookie.
Farrar’s job security looks assured in the short-term after he kept his place in the Gold Coast team even after Charlie Ballard and Sean Lemmens returned from injury. A forward in KFC SuperCoach, Farrar is playing in defence and has won the second-most defensive half disposals of any Suns defender since Round 5.
Finlay Macrae is also on the bubble; however, I’m not overly convinced with his scoring potential. After dominating in the final term on his AFL debut, he struggled to get involved against the Bombers on Anzac Day – having just one kick and one tackle. More alarmingly though was his role, attending just four centre bounces and spending 69 per cent of the game in the forward line.
Macrae’s teammate Jay Rantall was one of a couple of debutants in Round 6, but he was also played out of position and spent 96 per cent of the match up forward. He scored just 25 points and doesn’t look like a feasible option as a downgrade target.
The pick of the debutants last round was Port Adelaide defender Martin Frederick. He was lively against St Kilda and scored a solid 88 points – 70 of them in the first half. His ball use was the feature of his game as he hit the target with 22 of 23 disposals. He also linked up well around the ground and won 16 uncontested possessions.
Hopefully, there are a few more debutants to pick from in Round 7 as we look to offload the fully matured rookies. Best of luck for the upcoming round!
RATING THE NEALE, DUNKLEY, DUSTY REPLACEMENTS
— Al Paton and Tim Michell
KFC SuperCoach has never seen carnage like this.
How’s this for a list of names: Matt Rowell, Patrick Dangerfield, Zak Butters, Caleb Daniel, Isaac Heeney, Jordan Ridley, Jeremy Howe, Jordan De Goey, Liam Ryan.
They are just some of the guns who have been sidelined by injuries in the opening six rounds. And that was just the calm before the storm.
In a chaotic weekend Josh Dunkley, Dustin Martin and Lachie Neale were all hurt, impacting tens of thousands of KFC SuperCoach players.
Dunkley is the third-top scorer in the game this year and the 10th most popular selection, in more than 50 per cent of teams.
Dusty is No.2 on the popularity charts, with more than 114,000 owners now considering a trade. Neale was traded out of a host of teams after a slow start to the season but his injury still puts almost 50,000 players in a bind.
And that’s not even starting on the popular KFC SuperCoach cheapies who have been injured or dropped.
So how do we navigate the minefield and emerge stronger on the other side? Here’s our expert advice.
THE CASUALTIES
Josh Dunkley $634,100 FWD/MID
Hurt his right shoulder in the dying minutes of the Dogs’ win over GWS — after putting 132 points on the board. He is yet to have scans but the early prognosis is a long-term stint on the sidelines for the midfield gun, which makes him a must-trade.
Dustin Martin $482,900 FWD/MID
The Tigers megastar suffered concussion in his 250th game, forcing him to sit out most of the second half. Stick Dusty on your bench — with all the other issues we can’t afford to use a trade on a likely one-week lay-off.
If you’re struggling to find a replacement his dual-position flexibility means you could swing him into the midfield for a week and bring on a player like James Jordon as cover.
If you don’t have Dusty, pencil him in as a trade target in Round 8-9 when he could be as cheap as $425k.
Lachie Neale $578,700 MID
Our thoughts go out to the 6000 coaches who traded Neale in this round at what looked like a bargain price. The Lions issues a shock press release on Sunday night announcing the Brownlow medallist would have surgery on an ankle injury he suffered against the Blues.
TRADE STRATEGY
Many coaches already had plans in mind for this week as we enter what is traditionally upgrade season in KFC SuperCoach — when rookies have risen enough in price to start cashing them in for an extra premium.
And some popular rookies have just about maxed out in value. Errol Gulden lost $6100 on the weekend and has a break even of 78 next week, teammate Braeden Campbell also lost cash after coming on as the medical sub and Heath Chapman’s break even has jumped to 68 after he managed only 36 points against North Melbourne.
In chaotic times it pays to take a deep breath and look at the bigger picture. As Mick Malthouse loved to say, the season is a marathon, not a sprint — so it might be a smart move to take some short-term pain in terms of points on field next round if it helps improve your team overall for the next 17 rounds (yes, there are still 17 rounds to go, folks — hang in there!).
That might mean sitting an injured premium on the bench for a week and taking a rookie score, or even a zero. Remember that Dunkley or Neale won’t lose any value while they’re not playing.
One big lesson of the season so far is trades are precious! Our calculations this season on what constitutes a “must trade” will need to be revised to make sure we don’t burn through all our trades before we even get to the byes.
SuperCoach #savetradespic.twitter.com/hZ2yGtPu3u
— Supercoach Mumma (@EChallis) April 25, 2021
TRADE TARGETS
One silver lining to the injury nightmare is Dunkley and Neale both produced good scores at the weekend and can be traded to genuine stars.
And rookies like Gulden have appreciated enough in value that they can be traded up to guns as well if you have some cash in the bank or the ability to trade down to a rookie this round.
So who are the best options?
THE FORWARDS
Isaac Heeney $411,200 FWD
The star Swan returned from a broken hand against Gold Coast on Saturday and represents forward line value at under $420,000. KFC SuperCoaches can bank more than $200,000 by trading Dunkley to Heeney and use that money to turn a rookie such as Gulden into a premium midfielder. A score of 54 at the weekend will temper the enthusiasm of many but Heeney opened the season with scores of 115, 102 and 82 and if he replicates his efforts from the opening three rounds he won’t stay cheap for long.
Steele Sidebottom $493,300 FWD/MID
Sidebottom is available for almost $100,000 less than his starting price after reaching 90 only once in his first four games of 2021. He averaged just 77.5 in that stretch mostly due to poor ball use (he had at least 20 touches in each game) and his radar returned with scores of 93 and 119 in his past two matches. He also has the benefit of being available as a FWD/MID and if the injury chaos which has hit KFC SuperCoach continues, flexibility is going to be crucial. Sidebottom averaged 109 last season and will turn the corner at some point — you just need to be lucky enough to jump on at the right time.
Dayne Zorko $485,500 FWD/MID
The Brisbane skipper has had a rollercoaster start to the season, posting totals of 114, 64, 115, 70, 101 and 102. There’s been some suggestion he misses games most years due to soft-tissue troubles, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. Zorko played 15 games last year, but had featured in at least 20 games every year from 2013 before then. If it hadn’t been for some ill discipline he would have been one of the top forwards of the opening five rounds, and Zorko will assume more responsibility in the Lions midfield with Neale out. Could he also attract a tag?
Toby Greene $505,100 FWD
The ultimate risk-reward proposition in KFC SuperCoach. Greene has enjoyed a brilliant start to the campaign, averaging 18.5 disposals, three goals, four marks and four inside-50s. The stand-in GWS skipper has also recorded three KFC SuperCoach tons in his past four matches, only dropping below 86 points once in the first six rounds. A Greene trade is fraught with risk due to his history of injuries and suspension, playing only 52 matches in the past four years. But in the dominant form Greene has shown and with him flourishing with the added responsibility of replacing Stephen Coniglio as captain, he needs to be considered at the very least.
Rowan Marshall $557,200 FWD/RUC
Marshall was locked into many KFC SuperCoach forward lines in the pre-season before a foot injury ruled him out of Round 1. He showed his huge scoring ability with 132 points against the Power on Sunday but the problem here is the timing. Marshall is about to play his third game, and is set for a likely price drop with a break even of 146, so ideally you would wait a week or two before pouncing. You could wait on the Dunkley move but that’s a lot of cash sitting on the bench doing nothing and with Hawthorn and Gold Coast in the next two weeks Marshall might not drop much anyway.
Nick Hind $424,800 FWD
Here’s one for those who like left-field thinking. The dashing Don is a bolter for a top-six spot in the forwards, relishing a role across half-back for Essendon after being pigeonholed as a small forward during his time with St Kilda. Hind ranked 11th for total points among forwards after five rounds with four of his five scores between 85-102 including three 93-plus totals. Half-back flankers — especially those with the defensive freedom Hind enjoys — have become a force in KFC SuperCoach this year. Hind’s teammate Jordan Ridley, Tom Stewart, Jack Bowes, Daniel Rich and Jake Lloyd have scored prodigiously and Hind’s defensive role makes him an appealing option to replace Dunkley.
Shai Bolton $453,000 FWD-MID
That stinker in Round 3 is sure to cause angst for some KFC SuperCoaches, but Bolton has had an outstanding year otherwise. He’s only cheaper than his $462,400 starting price due to his 29 against Sydney and you could have got the dashing Tiger as cheap as $420,400 two weeks ago. He’s still good value at this price if you trust him to continue the form he’s shown in the past three rounds. With scores of 110, 110 and 99 in his past three, Bolton ranks fifth in the forwards for three-round average. Two of the players ahead of him — Dunkley and Sam Reid — are injured. The obvious concern is whether Dion Prestia’s return could eat into his midfield minutes, but Prestia did have a setback at training recently which has delayed any comeback from injury.
THE MIDFIELDERS
Jack Macrae $668,600 MID
Were you nervous about picking too many Bulldogs to start the season? It turns out we shouldn’t have worried with Dunkley, Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli all averaging 115-plus in the opening six rounds. Macrae is rolled gold when it come to KFC SuperCoach with a lowest score of 108 in the first six rounds and four scores over 130, making him a great captaincy option. You’ll need a bit of cash in the bank but this could be a rare chance to grab the No.1 scoring midfielder in the game.
Clayton Oliver $596,300 MID
If you already have Macrae or like a bit of value then Oliver has to be the No.1 midfield target. The midfield bull has scored 114 or more in five of his five games, with the only exception when he was the victim of a classic Matt de Boer tagging job in Round 3. As a result of that 67-point game he has dropped more than $50k in value — just a $20k jump from Neale. But with a break even of 122 he should still be affordable next round if you need to address other priorities this week.
Adam Treloar $568,600 MID
Looking for some value in the all-conquering Dogs engine room? The ex-Pie took a couple of rounds to warm up in his new colours but has returned scores of 108, 118, 117 and 113 in his past four, and he’s available for well under $600k, leaving some serious change from a Dunkley swap to help fix other problems. Other midfield guns to consider in a similar price bracket are Travis Boak and Mitch Duncan, while Zach Merrett also presents value at $583k.
Sam Walsh $581,000 MID
We can put to bed the pre-season Walsh v Patrick Cripps debate after six rounds with Walsh clearly taking the baton in the Blues midfield. He is averaging 119 points a game — ranked fourth among midfielders and more than 30 ahead of Cripps. Walsh has scored 130-plus in his past two games and with a break even of just 68 his price is headed north at a rapid rate.
THE DUAL-POSITION OPTIONS
Jake Lloyd
Now we’re getting creative. Trading Neale to a defender would require trading him out, and moving a DEF/MID player like Rory Laird into the midfield to create a vacancy in defence. You can do it with Dunkley too if you swap him into the midfield then follow the steps above. This could be a savvy move considering the high scoring from defenders this season and the relative value on offer. Lloyd hasn’t quite hit the heights of last season when he averaged 122 points a game but we have high standards — his worst return so far is 95. His price has dropped $82,000 so if you were waiting to get him at better value than is starting price, now is the time.
Tom Stewart $558,100 DEF
Stewart added $21,800 to his price tag after Round 6 but is still available for close to his starting value — but not for long (break even 67). He is as reliable as they come with just two scores under 100 so far this season (83 and 94) and a safe role in the Cats backline.
Callum Mills $525,500 DEF
The No.1 scoring defender for total points this season (av 110.5) is in just 8 per cent of teams. Mills has made the transition to a full-time midfielder in 2021 and has the ability to go big with two 130-plus scores in the first six rounds. With a lowest score of 83 he is another smart pick-up, just be wary of a Round 14 bye he shares with teammate Lloyd as well as the likes of Rory Laird, Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn.
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