KFC SuperCoach Round 13 review: How many trades you should have left and what to do with them
Round 13 is over and the KFC SuperCoach finals are here. So how many trades should you have left? And what should you be doing with them? Plus, all the burning questions ahead of Round 14.
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Round 13 of KFC SuperCoach is in the books and it’s time for Footy Frenzy 2.0.
And, most importantly, KFC SuperCoach finals.
But there is still so much that can — and will — happen over the next five rounds.
There is ground to made, and plenty to be lost.
To get you prepared, here are some of the big KFC SuperCoach questions ahead of Round 14.
TRADE GUIDE: ALL THE TOP ROUND 14 TARGETS
HOW MANY TRADES SHOULD YOU HAVE LEFT?
It’s a good question.
This season has been a trading frenzy with many KFC SuperCoaches using every one of the extra trades available so far.
And that’s not a bad thing, given you’ve made it to the KFC SuperCoach finals with six in hand. Yes, I know the math.
But with five rounds to go, unless you’re in a knockout final this week, holding ahead of Round 14 may be better for our overall rank.
How many #supercoach trades do you plan to have after Round 14?
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) August 24, 2020
Sure, that immediate final upgrade is tempting but so much can – and will happen – over the next five rounds.
And in a best-18 scoring week, 20-21 premiums should be enough.
If your team is overloaded with Round 15 players, however, trading in preparation for the six-team bye round may be something you have to do.
Obviously, the more trades you have the better, but there is no right answer to the question.
If you’ve got a full team and six trades left, are you better placed than a team with two rookies on-field and 10 trades?
It’s hard to say.
But if you’re one of those KFC SuperCoaches with six, and decide to use three again this round, it will catch up with you.
And so will a number of other teams.
We’re almost at the end but there is still so much ground to be made — or lost — in the run home.
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO IF YOU ARE IN A MUST-WIN FINAL?
If you’ve given up on the quest – or just don’t care for overall rankings and play KFC SuperCoach for league glory — your strategy is obviously different, especially if you are in a tough sudden-death elimination final in Round 14.
Sure, keep the next final in mind, but you have to get there first. So if your opponent is stronger on paper, you need to make a move.
And that could mean forgetting about the Round 15 bye.
Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Geelong and St Kilda won’t feature in Round 15.
But neither will KFC SuperCoach head-to-head match-ups.
So if you have a league-focus, you can consider players from those teams as already having their bye, like, say, Giants gun Josh Kelly or Docker Nat Fyfe.
When most KFC SuperCoaches are overlooking someone like Port Adelaide’s Travis Boak because of the upcoming bye, you should consider jumping on with the Power hosting the Swans on Saturday.
The gun midfielder has posted scores of 129, 97 and 148 in the past three matches with both KFC SuperCoach tons coming at Adelaide Oval, the venue for the Round 14 fixture. And $513k is great buying.
Despite the KFC SuperCoach ton against the Magpies on Monday night, take a wait-and-see approach on North Melbourne’s Jy Simpkin though.
His tackle on Collingwood’s Taylor Adams might be looked at further.
But if you’re looking for a huge point-of-difference, though, there’s no disputing the KFC SuperCoach credentials of Simpkin’s teammate Luke McDonald any longer.
He was again allowed to do he pleased against the Magpies, tallying 30 disposals and 144 KFC SuperCoach points. In the previous five matches, McDonald recorded scores of 122, 136, 95, 138 and 119. He’s only in 2604 teams.
This is the Jy Simpkin incident which will have #supercoach teams a bit nervous for the MRO findings.
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) August 24, 2020
Adams got straight up though. pic.twitter.com/8AuZQ0pLyl
There are great options who have actually already had their bye but it depends on how different you need to be.
The Bulldogs also won’t feature in Round 15 but Jack Macrae might be the difference between winning and losing, even if you’re opponent has him, in the first week of the KFC SuperCoach finals.
He’s a straight swap for Lachie Neale, a player Macrae has outscored in the past five rounds and a player who won’t be there this round.
Or a trade to the fourth-ranked KFC SuperCoach scorer Jack Steele, who tallied a round-high 167 points against the Lions, will make you $130k.
How long can Nic Nat’s run last?
The trade plan for most KFC SuperCoaches was to move Max Gawn to Nic Naitanui and then bring the Melbourne skipper back into their team once his price bottomed out.
Gawn — who has been sidelined with shoulder and knee soreness — was traded by 1296 coaches to Naitanui in Round 13.
That move netted 146 points and more than $150,000.
The only downside has been Gawn’s extended absence means the opportunity to get him for much cheaper than his current price of $721,000 has been delayed.
Gawn will have a break even of 244 when he returns and is projected to lose $60k in two rounds.
Naitanui is projected to reach $615k in Round 14, at which time he would be roughly a $45k upgrade to Gawn’s projected low point.
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But with the Eagles ruckman in such barnstorming form, is a trade really necessary?
While a rest is likely during West Coast’s congested schedule, Naitanui has scored 146, 129, 153 and 146 in his past four games — an average of 143.5.
Those numbers are slightly higher than Gawn’s season average of 141 and although Naitanui could slow down, his remaining fixture suggests he’s unlikely to.
West Coast takes on Richmond (Ivan Soldo), Essendon (Sam Draper), Western Bulldogs (Tim English), St Kilda (Paddy Ryder/Rowan Marshall) and North Melbourne (Todd Goldstein) before the end of the home-and-away season.
That is a run a reborn Naitnaui is primed to dominate.
DEVON RELISHES DEFENSIVE SWITCH
KFC SuperCoaches who have shown the ultimate patience and retained Bomber Devon Smith were rewarded on Saturday when he produced his best score in more than two years.
Managed for Round 12, Smith returned to Essendon’s team playing predominantly across halfback and amassed a season-high 27 disposals.
Smith relished the positional switch, spending 68 per cent of the game in defence and 24 per cent in midfield.
That was a dramatic shift from rounds 1-11, when he spent 54 per cent of time as a midfielder, 39 per cent forward and 0 per cent in defence.
It was just the second time this year he has reached 20 disposals and helped Smith return 113 KFC SuperCoach points.
One of the most-popular starting picks of the season at $335,800, Smith’s ownership has dropped from 56 per cent of teams in Round 8 to 38 per cent in Round 13.
With a break even of 56 before the Bombers’ Round 13 clash with Richmond, Smith’s price will rise to about $396k after this round.
The 27-year-old also provides a valuable MID-FWD swing and has had his bye.
Whether you held Smith out of necessity or strategy, it’s paid off.
IS DRAPER A LEGITIMATE R2 OPTION?
Why not? Unless he’s managed again during the run home, which remains a possibility, the big Bomber has shown he can score as well as most premium ruckmen in KFC SuperCoach. He posted 70 points in a half against GWS and 122 points against Richmond, the first ton of his SuperCoach career. It would be a bold play, but with Draper to be about $272k next round, coaches could net a significant profit to bolster other lines by downgrading a top-line premium and taking a risk on Draper.
Round 13 #supercoach Price Projection* - Sam Draper
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) August 22, 2020
StartPrice $124k
2020Scores 73/74/63
R13Price $214k
R13BE -7
R13Score 122*
R13:$214k->$272k($58k)NewBE -19
ProjScore 83
R14:$272k->$318k($46k)NewBE -11
R15:$318k->$360k($42k)NewBE 55
R16:$360k->$373k($13k)NewBE 63
*approx https://t.co/Kpln4KTMSJ
HOW CAN YOU AFFORD RYAN AND BRAYSHAW?
The $40k upgrade from James Sicily to Ryan looks a bargain now. Ryan’s ownership only went up by one per cent this round, with 5232 coaches trading Sicily for the star Docker after he suffered an ACL injury last week. Ryan delivered his eighth consecutive ton against Sydney, scoring 142, and has averaged 124 points during that stretch. Those numbers are comparable with some of the best scorers in KFC SuperCoach in any position. About $600k is a lot to pay for a defender but you’re only losing out not having Ryan. Ditto Andrew Brayshaw, who has maintained his high level of scoring despite the return of Michael Walters and Nat Fyfe. Brayshaw recorded 122 points against the Swans, one of only two midfielders (David Mundy, 131) to post triple figures.
HOW MANY ROOKIES CAN YOU CARRY DURING BYES?
Ideally none in your 22 on-field players. But in all likelihood most coaches will be carrying at least one or two rookies and hoping they aren’t required as part of their best 18 during the next three bye rounds. If the rookies you have are Caleb Serong (five-round average 91) or Sam Draper (average 83) you’d feel more comfortable carrying them than a player such as Izak Rankine (52 and 58 past two games). If you’ve planned accordingly for the byes and have 20 or more premiums available, you shouldn’t need to worry about your rookie scores anyway and if they find their way into your best 18, it will be a bonus.
SHOULD YOU STICK WITH RANKINE?
Give him one more week. Four of his eight scores are 83 or better and although he’s dropped off in the past two rounds, the Suns rising star likely won’t be past of your best 18 anyway. If you’ve got the bank spare to upgrade him to a premium who has had their bye, don’t hesitate though. Every round you have top scorers in your team increases your hopes of climbing the rankings. Otherwise, hold him until Round 15 — when Gold Coast has a bye — then target a player from one of the 10 teams who will have already had their bye.
IS TRADING NEALE REALLY THAT CRAZY?
Punting a premium after one bad score is asking for trouble in KFC SuperCoach — but hear me out. Lachie Neale has a bye in Round 14 and at about $700k is one of the most-expensive players in SuperCoach. If the Brownlow Medal favourite averaged 125 in the last four rounds of the season (500 points), you would only need to trade him to a player without a bye who averages 100 during the run home to come out square. For example, what if Josh Kelly plays every game and maintains his average of about 120? There’s an extra 100 points and $100k to finish your team by trading Neale to Kelly. If you’re low on trades it’s not worth entertaining, but if you still have eight or more left you could consider it.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Round 13 review: How many trades you should have left and what to do with them