KFC SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for Round 2 of the AFL season
Don’t miss the numbers you need to make the key trade decisions this week, including the rise of Isaac Heeney, top money-makers and is the Max Gawn slump real?
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The lead-in to round 3 is for many KFC SuperCoaches the biggest week of the year.
We have two games of evidence to make decisions on players we want in or out of our teams, and this is the last chance to make trades before prices start to move for most players.
To help you make the best trade and selection calls, we’ve delivered into SuperCoach Plus to find the stats nuggets that can give you the edge.
SuperCoach Plus is a treasure trove of stats and tools including Break Evens, score and price projections, a bye planner, the new Trade Assist button and lots more. And now SuperCoach Plus subscribers can see live KFC SuperCoach scores for every AFL game in the 2022 season.
And you get exclusive weekly analysis articles just like this one!
Note: The SuperCoach Plus free trial for all players has expired, so sign up now for live scores, exclusive stats, team latest and more!
1. All about the money
Break Evens are the key tool for determining which players are about to rise or fall in value, and you can see every player’s Break Even (or BE) in SuperCoach Plus. Saint Jack Hayes has the lowest BE in the competition entering round 3 of -135 – if he scores anything above that his price will rise. Based on SuperCoach Plus projections of a 98 against the Tigers on Sunday, he could jump in value by more than $100,000 in one week. North Melbourne’s Tristan Xerri has the second-lowest BE of -77 and is forecast to jump in value by more than $60,000 if he hits his projected score of 58 against the Lions. In all there are 39 players with negative Break Evens entering round 3 with notable names on that list including Josh Rachele (-68), Patrick McCartin (-58), Jason Horne-Francis (-52), Will Brodie (-46), Nick Daicos (-38) and Stephen Coniglio (-26).
2. Surprise money makers
There are also some surprising names that currently don’t feature in many KFC SuperCoach teams but are poised to make a tidy profit for their owners. Magpie Jack Ginnivan ($199,900 FWD) has a BE of -66 after scoring 119 against the Crows and 64 points in Round 1. He’s in 1 per cent of teams. Eagles Patrick Naish ($189,600 MID/FWD, 3 per cent) and Willie Rioli ($225,300 FWD, 2 per cent) have BEs of -42 and -41 respectively, Hawk Jai Newcombe ($261,300 MID) has scored 119 and 68 to earn a BE of -34. Jye Caldwell ($266,700 MID, BE -25), Tom Green ($430,000 MID, BE -19), Dockers ruckman Lloyd Meek ($263,700 RUC, BE -17) and Cat Brad Close ($354,700 FWD, BE -1) are all projected to make money next round.
3. Alarm bells
Break Evens also tell us who is about to lose money, which can be just as important when deciding your trades. Tom Mitchell has the highest BE in the comp of 211 after scoring 80 and 82 in his first two games. He has a fantastic record against this round’s opponent Carlton (more on that below) but SuperCoach Plus is projecting a $45,000 price drop after this weekend. Bailey Williams, Dayne Zorko, Max Gawn, Jack Steele and Dyson Heppell all have BEs over 200, with Steele projected to lose more than $40,000 if he scores 103 against Richmond. If you’re planning on keeping a player for the season then some price fluctuations aren’t a major problem but BEs that may cause some concern include Rowan Marshall (123), Caleb Serong (112), Lachie Weller (107), Matt Crouch (88), Cam Rayner (65) and Mitch McGovern (40), who were all picked for the money-making potential. McGovern’s value is projected to rise by just over $20,000 in the next month if he continues his 55-point average – nowhere near enough if you were hoping he would help you get to a premium forward.
4. Fallen premium watch
KFC SuperCoaches who don’t own proven premiums like Gawn and Steele will be keeping a close eye on their prices over the coming weeks, with a drop in value potentially signalling a bargain buy after cash cows have made enough cash to start upgrading. In 2021 Steele dropped about $80,000 in value from his starting price and snapping him up at his lowest price ($563k in round 10) was one of the smartest buys of the season. This year it could be a similar story – he is projected to shed about $75,000 in the next six weeks. Zorko could lose $100,000 and Mitchell is set to drop $70,000 unless his scores improve dramatically. Other big names who could be a lot cheaper in a few weeks include Marcus Bontempelli (BE 171), Jarryd Lyons (BE 188), Clayton Oliver (BE 160) and Sam Walsh, who has a Break Even of 166 after scoring 90 in his first game of the season.
5. Neale is back
Any doubts over Lachie Neale rebounding from his disappointing 2021 season were wiped away when he scored 198 points against Essendon, racking up 41 disposals and two goals to post a career-high KFC SuperCoach total. This is his best ever start to a season, averaging 169 – five better than in 2020 when he went on to average 134.4 for the season and win the Brownlow Medal. Volume is the biggest reason behind his rise this year – averaging 36 disposals, 19 contested possessions and 10 clearances – all career-highs at this stage of the year. His kicking has also gone through the roof, posting a career-high kicking efficiency of 75 per cent, which is an increase of 14 per cent from last year. He has also come into his own at ground level, leading the competition for ground ball-gets with 29.
6. So is Cripps
The rise of Patrick Cripps is even more stunning after two years when he struggled to post anything close to premium numbers in KFC SuperCoach. Last season Cripps posted two 100-plus scores in 20 matches, a total he has matched this year after two rounds. He is back hunting the ball as he did back in 2019, when he averaged 117.1 points per game. In that season, Cripps averaged 17 contested possessions, which is exactly what he’s returned in 2022. In addition, he’s racked up 30-plus disposals in both games this year and is impacting the scoreboard – booting five goals straight. His ball use has also improved and his disposal efficiency is currently a career-high at 75 per cent. Cripps is also a lot more direct and he’s taking the game on – averaging a career-high 592 metres gained. To put that figure into perspective, his metres gained from last year were 251. Cripps is the most traded-in player this week, added to more than 18,000 teams, and with a Break Even of -28 he is projected to average $63,000 to his price tag after facing Hawthorn.
7. Heeney is here
Every pre-season we hear talk of “more midfield time” for a host of players and it seems this year we should have listened to what John Longmire was telling us about Isaac Heeney. After posting strong numbers playing as a forward in the first seven years of his career, Heeney’s role has changed completely in 2021 and his scores are showing the results – averaging 140.5 as the topscoring forward. He has spent 41 per cent of game time in the midfield this season compared to just 15 per cent in 2021, and attended 34 per cent of centre bounces – up from just 3 per cent last year.That has led to his numbers going through the roof, averaging a career-high 23 disposals, 10 contested possessions, four clearances and six tackles. Despite the role change, he has still impacted the scoreboard with a total of eight goals and one score assist. He is another player poised for a big price spike, with SuperCoach Plus projecting a score of 108 against the Bulldogs and a new price tag north of $500,000.
8. So, what’s going on with Gawn?
Is the Gawn slump real? The topscoring ruckman of the past four seasons has had an underwhelming start to the season, posting scores of 92 and 88, and is staring at a sizeable drop from his $657,400 starting price. But there’s reason to think he can turn that around pretty quickly. In terms of ruck contests attended this season, very little has changed at Melbourne. Gawn has attended 53 ruck contests per game, down from 55, while Luke Jackson has attended 32 contests, up from 27. Gawn’s ball use and effectiveness in ruck contests isn’t the same though, posting a career-low disposal efficiency of just 50 per cent, while his hitout-to-advantage rate of 27 per cent is his lowest since 2013. Jackson’s numbers, on the other hand, have gone the other way – averaging career-highs for disposals, contested possessions, goals and clearances. He has a Break Even of just 3 heading into this weekend and has been traded into almost 10,000 teams.
9. Hot and cold
If we needed another case study on why we should avoid making trade decisions on rookies after just one game, look no further than Tyson Stengle. The Cats recruit looked amazing in round 1, kicking four goals on his way to 120 points. It was a very different story in round 2 as Stengle managed just 13 points from six disposals. Round 1 stars Jack Hayes (127, 68) and Josh Rachele (118, 58) also found the going tougher, but for going from chocolates to boiled lollies in the blink of an eye you can’t go past Peter Wright. He was looking at a huge score last round after piling on 114 points in the first half, but things went pear-shaped after that. He failed to register a disposal in the third quarter and actually lost points after having a hitout sharked, then scored just 10 points in the final term from two effective disposals, one contested possession and two uncontested possessions.
10. Captains corner
If you read last week’s SuperCoach Plus article, you would have noted we highlighted Lachie Neale’s excellent scoring history against Essendon – a trend he emphatically continued in round 2. As it happens, Neale also has a great record against this week’s opponent North Melbourne, which makes him the standout captain choice this round (on top of being the topscoring player overall in KFC SuperCoach so far in 2022). Neale has played the Kangaroos 11 times in his career for an average score 115.1, and that bumps up to 143.3 in past three. The other player with an eye-popping record against his round 3 opponent is Tom Mitchell. He hasn’t started the year as strongly as most expected, but Carlton is his favourite opponent – in his past five clashes with the Blues he has an average of 158.4 with a low score in that time of 133.
11. Captains corner (2)
Neale plays on Saturday night (and Mitchell on Sunday), opening the door for some other vice-captain choices early in the round. When it comes to scoring history, however, we might be looking for someone to buck the trend. Jack Macrae averages 113.3 in his past three against Sydney while Melbourne powerhouses Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca average 114.7, 104 and 100 in their past three against Essendon respectively. Touk Miller scored 143 against GWS last year but hasn’t gone above 86 the other eight times he has faced the Giants. Another slow starter in Marcus Bontempelli loves playing the Swans, averaging 146 in his past three against them, while if you’re a Tim English owner (or possible owner) it’s worth noting his scores in his past two games against the Swans: 126 and 145.
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