KFC SuperCoach jury answers key questions about 17-round AFL season
What does a 17-round season mean for KFC SuperCoach and which players should you be targeting? Our jury answer the key questions.
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The SuperCoach jury has never faced a challenge like this.
Months of planning — from us and the AFL — has gone out the window as Australia comes to grips with the threat of coronavirus.
What should that mean for your starting KFC SuperCoach team?
Many coaches have already picked up on the need for more mid-pricers, as cash generation will be tough across 17 weeks.
We’ve gathered our own ‘war cabinet’ to assess three key issues should Round 1 go ahead.
CHECK OUT OUR FULL MID-PRICE BIBLE HERE
Al Paton (Herald Sun)
1. How have plans for a 17-round season changed your strategy?
A shorter season means less time to get to a ‘finished’ team full of premiums via the traditional trading strategy, where we start upgrading rookies from Round 6 or 7. So, as most people have picked up on, that makes it even less appealing to start 2-3 rookies on field in any position because it will be hard to upgrade them all. So mid-pricers definitely come into the selection frame – it will be much quicker upgrading from a $400k player. But that still only works if they score well. You could still get stuck with a team full of guys who score between 75 and 95 each week and don’t increase much in price.
2. Which player are you picking that you otherwise wouldn’t have?
Marcus Bontempelli came into my team last night. He is a huge winner from a fixture in which teams play each other once after previously being scheduled to face GWS nemesis Matt de Boer twice in the first 12 rounds. The possibility of shortened games could also benefit players like Bont who can go really big — look at SuperCoach scores in shorter AFLW games where 4-5 players will often score above 150.
3. Which player/s have you dropped due to five less rounds being played?
I’m not getting rid of all my rookies but having slow-burn guys who score 30 each week seems like a road to nowhere, so players like Jez McLennan and Jack Mahoney are gone which means someone like Jarrod Brander is now on my bench instead of starting on field. That meant cutting pre-season favourite Luke Ryan in favour of a mid-pricer to save some cash.
Dan Begala (SuperCoach Investor)
1. How have plans for a 17-round season changed your strategy?
The dust is yet to settle from the AFL’s decision on Monday, so it’s all hands on deck at The Begala Brigade to ascertain whether I make any material changes to my FY20 strategy.
I still envisage the tried and tested strategy of “guns and rookies” will trump all, however there will be some innovative coaches that leap out of the rankings blocks once the season commences.
2. Which player are you picking that you otherwise wouldn’t have?
I am now considering Fremantle youngster, Andy Brayshaw ($383K, MID/FWD), who looks to be on the verge of a breakout campaign and flourished within the Dockers’ engine room during the Marsh Community Series.
Uber premium, Josh Kelly ($637,700, MID), is sure to trigger the thoughts of many given he’ll never face the wrath of Matthew De Boer and may be able to withstand the physical rigours of 17 games.
The only issue I foresee, however, is Kelly’s durability being tested should the AFL need to play back-to-back games with reduced rests and turnaround times.
3. Which player/s have you dropped due to five less rounds being played?
Other than a few tinkers here and there, The Begala Brigade is feeling relatively settled on the eve of the season opener between Richmond and Carlton.
The only changes I foresee – if any – may include opting for slightly discounted premiums (i.e. Coniglio, Oliver, Yeo et al) which will provide salary cap respite and enable me to do one of two things, A) upgrade speculative mid-pricers into seasoned premium players; or B) pivot untried rookies into popular mid-pricers such as Darcy MacPherson ($444K, MID/FWD) and Jack Steven ($362K, MID/FWD).
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Tim Michell (Herald Sun)
1. How have plans for a 17-round season changed your strategy?
I was already well down the mid-price rabbit hole before the coronavirus curve ball. I had seven named in my final team reveal (Andrew McGrath, Sam Docherty, Dylan Roberton, Andrew Brayshaw, Devon Smith, Jack Steven and Connor Rozee) but expect to take 8-9 into the season. Like most coaches I think the biggest challenge now will be getting to a full premium team in 17 rounds. That will likely mean starting an extra midfield premium – or two – while compensating by taking risks on mid-pricers in defence and up forward. I might come out better off fielding Christian Petracca and Tom Mitchell rather than Lachie Whitfield and Andrew McGrath, for example.
2. Which player are you picking that you otherwise wouldn’t have?
Durability remains a key trait for me. You won’t want to be wasting trades on sideways moves when cash generation is going to be difficult. I can understand why people are tempted by the points per minute ratio of Nic Naitanui (1.38 PPM in 2019, ranked no. 1), but Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn are the big two for good reason. I’d gone off the idea of a fifth midfield premium but Tom Mitchell is right back in the mix at $630K.
3. Which player/s have you dropped due to five less rounds being played?
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher worries me. Is he in Essendon’s best 22 when Patrick Ambrose returns? The concern being he’ll play two weeks, footy will be postponed and Ambrose will be fit by the time we return from a hiatus. John Noble is the other player in the gun if a suitable defensive rookie is named for Round 1. Quick cash generation will be pivotal and top-price rookies need much higher scores to surge in price. There’s some huge calls to be named between now and Round 1. Good luck!
THE PHANTOM
1. How have plans for a 17-round season changed your strategy?
To be honest, I’m not sure yet. The final decision on the amount of trades KFC SuperCoaches will be allocated to navigate 2020 might change strategies again. But, so far, I can’t stop thinking about Nic-Nat and, like most, looking to close the gap between Round 1 team and full-premium by adding a few more mid-pricers.
2. Which player are you picking that you otherwise wouldn’t have?
Nic Naitanui. A shortened season – with the potential for shortened games – appears ideal for his current workload. And we all know, he’s one of the most powerful scorers in the game. Tom Mitchell is back in the picture, too.
3. Which player/s have you dropped due to five less rounds being played?
None as yet but there’s a number of rookie-price options under pressure to keep their spot. But, on first look, the revamped fixture is set to bring more big-name players into the picture, rather than out of it.
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DAN BATTEN (Herald Sun)
1. How have plans for a 17-round season changed your strategy?
Maybe it is the fact that we have thrown two and a half months of planning out the window, but I am feeling like throwing caution to the wind and eliminating some premiums and rookies and replacing them with yep, you guessed it, mid-pricers. Less time to generate cash means we should look to boost our scoring from the get-go, and the poor rookie crop gives us the perfect excuse to pick SuperCoach’s forbidden fruit.
2. Which player are you picking that you otherwise wouldn’t have?
Tim Michell’s boy Andrew McGrath had tempted me and now I have been seduced. The former No. 1 pick had the most centre-bounce attendances of any Bomber during the pre-season and he provides some added value to inject into the rest of my team.
3. Which player/s have you dropped due to five less rounds being played?
I have dropped Patrick Dangerfield due to the dreaded Matt de Boer tag in Round 1 – as we may only have four rounds this season – and replaced him with Josh Kelly. The Giants star usually missing a few games during the season through injury, which had scared me off a touch during the pre-season, but less games and a flawless pre-season sees him get the call-up.
Andrew McGrath makes way for Stephen Coniglio, who I wasn’t super keen on starting anyway. He has allowed me to upgrade a rookie defender to Dylan Roberton, who will be useful as a minor cash generator and reliable scorer.
ALEXEI BEOVICH (Jock Reynolds)
1. How have plans for a 17-round season changed your strategy?
Well I was already running six deep in the midfield and midprice madness everywhere else … so my plans remain relatively unchanged. I’ll probably downgrade two of my six uber-premo midfielders to help bulk up around the edges in defence and up forward …
2. Which player are you picking that you otherwise wouldn’t have?
Nic Naitanui was always in my short list, the prospect of shortened games with potential for longer rests between games means his game time should be pretty solid in 2020. He is a high points-per-minute winner who can impact late in games. I expect some big fourth quarter scores form this man.
3. Which player/s have you dropped due to five less rounds being played?
Whitfield, Oliver and Botempelli are all in the firing line. Downgrading them to guys like Viney, McLuggage and Martin will free up some cash and reduce the amount of on-field rookies I have to rely on.
Brodie Grundy isn’t safe either …#NicNaitsmith
Paige Cardona (Fox Sports)
1. How have plans for a 17-round season changed your strategy?
It’s likely that if games move to multiple matches in one week, then all players will be heavily monitored. For that reason alone, I’m moving my strategy to points per minute (ppm) type players who’s ratios are based higher when you match that with time in ground (tog).
2. Which player are you picking that you otherwise wouldn’t have?
Jordan De Goey and Toby Greene now come to mind as two players I’ll consider starting with. As teams look to manage time on ground of players, both De Goey and Greene should pick up greater midfield minutes and play as “burst” players rather than 90% game time players. They’re both higher PPM players who could relish the TOG management given their respective teams bat very deep through their midfields.
3. Which player/s have you dropped due to five less rounds being played?
I’ve dropped Tom Mitchell, Sam Docherty and Max Gawn because I don’t have time for any of them to “get going”. I could’ve given them a few rounds grace to hit their straps but time is of the essence, I want players who are fit and firing and have Marsh Series form so my team can hit the ground running.
DWAYNE DELMENICO (2019 KFC SuperCoach winner)
1. How have plans for a 17-round season changed your strategy?
As a lot of people have mentioned, its mid-price madness time! Given in a standard 23 round season it is very aggressive to have a team at full premium by round 14 in the standard guns and rookies strategy, that leaves only four rounds for a full premium team to generate large amounts of points in the current 17-game season format. Given this, it is safe to say we should be aiming for less upgrades and being more aggressive in our approach to reach full premium early. The only way to achieve this is starting with more keepers which will require some luck and skill in selecting mid-priced players who will remain in our teams. Devon Smith, Jack Steven, come on down!
2. Which player are you picking that you otherwise wouldn’t have?
I wasn’t sold on having both Devon Smith and Jack Steven, I was going to select one of these guys, I now have both in my team as they could very well be keepers (top 6-8 forwards).
3. Which player/s have you dropped due to five less rounds being played?
I have dropped Stephen Coniglio. Using the extra money to upgrade to mid priced players in the forward line as the forward rookies pose the biggest risk of scoring poorly I really only want to start 1 on this line. A player such as Coniglio, Josh Kelly, Toby Greene etc I think you should be very wary of as each game missed is a larger % of the season.
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