KFC SuperCoach: Fantasy Freako’s trade advice for Round 10

Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako has uncovered three super scorers that can set your KFC SuperCoach team apart from the pack.

By this stage of the season many KFC SuperCoaches look at their upcoming opponents in their leagues and see there is very little variance in squads.

Most teams already have Rory Laird, Dustin Martin, Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn, Jack Macrae and Jayden Short, and in the end, the scores are quite close at the end of the round.

So how do you get the upper hand against your rivals? The answer – pick POD players.

Points of difference, or PODS as they’re often referred to in fantasyland, can be the difference between winning and losing head-to-head matches. They can also play a major role in rising up the overall rankings.

Looking for hidden gems, none come close to Jarryd Lyons. Often in the shadow of Lachie Neale, Lyons is the No.1 scoring player in the competition since Neale went down in Round 6 – averaging 31.3 disposals, 14 contested possessions, 7.3 clearances, five tackles and 134 KFC SuperCoach points.

Jarryd Lyons is in just 4 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams.

Lyons was just as prolific even when Neale played, ranking 12th in the league for points scored in the opening six rounds.

Across the year, only Cameron Guthrie and Jack Macrae have scored more points among midfielders than Lyons. Lyons isn’t cheap, though, and is currently the most expensive midfielder in the league.

If we stay in the midfield, then Mitch Duncan is another player worth considering. He has dropped below 100 points just once and is averaging a career-high 120. His role is quite unique and isn’t too dissimilar to Lachie Whitfield from a couple of seasons

ago, with Duncan spending 59 per cent of game time in the midfield and 40 per cent as a forward.

Like Whitfield, Duncan starts across half-forward and then has the license to roam, averaging a competition-high 9.4 uncontested marks. He also ranks third for uncontested possessions per game.

Just 3 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches are reaping the benefits of Christian Salem’s breakout season.

In defence, Christian Salem has flown under the radar and ranks second for points scored among SuperCoach defenders – outperforming the likes of Jake Lloyd, Tom Stewart and Laird.

After dropping below 20 disposals in Round 1, Salem averages 28.6 disposals, 18.4 uncontested possessions and 110 points since then. He’s also sharing kick-in duties with Steven May and has played on from all 21 kick-ins.

If you’re looking for a POD, then the players in the table below are worthy options and all boast a KFC SuperCoach ownership under 10,000. Take note though, David Mundy

and Joel Selwood both have high break evens this round, so I’d just put them on the

watchlist for now.

FREAKO’S PODS

Jarryd Lyons (Bris) $630,000 MID — av 122, BE 93

Mitch Duncan (Geel) $597,200 MID — av 119, BE 110

David Mundy (Frem) $584,800 MID — av 113, BE 154

Touk Miller (GC) $592,700 MID — av 112, BE 124

Sean Darcy (Frem) $522,800 RUC — av 109, BE 52

Christian Salem (Melb) $558,300 DEF — av 107, BE 115

Darcy Parish (Ess) $564,200 MID — av 107, BE 88

Daniel Rich (Bris) $541,900 DEF — av 106, BE 91

Joel Selwood (Geel) $533,700 MID — av 105, BE 165

Champion Data's top captain picks for Round 10.

ROOKIE WATCH

SuperCoaches were handed a major boost ahead of the byes last round as no less than five players debuted – with Tom Wilson, Malcolm Rosas, Hugo Ralphsmith, Kieren

Briggs and Ronin O’Connor all playing their first AFL match.

However, they failed to hit any great heights from a scoring perspective – returning 19, 21, 33, 42 and 47 points respectively.

The job security of the quintet though remains shaky at best, so it’s a case of wait and see until they player their second match.

Sydney’s dynamic duo, Errol Gulden and Braeden Campbell, are likely to be sidelined until after the Swans’ Round 14 bye. Both players still have a considerable SuperCoach ownership, as Gulden (63,945) and Campbell (44,388) are owned by over 100,000 coaches. Both need to be moved on.

Kieren Briggs (scored 42 points in his first game.

Tom Powell returned a season-low 45 points and now has a break even score of 106. Chad Warner scored 61 against Collingwood and has a break even of 73.

James Jordon, though, continues to post decent scores, scoring 96 points against Carlton, while Tom Highmore returned to play his first match since Round 2, scoring 47 against Geelong. Surprisingly, James Rowe scored 80 against the Eagles and now has a break even of -5. He’s a definite hold for now.

Champion Data's top rookie picks for Round 10.

In terms of trade targets ahead of Round 10, Riley Collier-Dawkins remains an option even though he has already risen in price. He attended a game-high 24 centre bounces against the Giants and finished with 18 disposals, seven tackles, two goals and 88 points. With a

break even of -22 ahead of this Friday’s Lions clash, he’s destined for a few more price rises in the coming weeks.

Another third-gamer Caleb Poulter scored 30 of his 66 points against the Swans in the final term. He has been consistent in his three games and won at least 15 disposals in every match, and his DPP status is more than handy.

As always, trade wisely and best of luck for the upcoming round!

TIME IS RIGHT FOR AGGRESSIVE SUPERCOACH MOVE

— KFC SuperCoach Investor Daniel Begala

The market is ablaze with opportunity and coaches will shortly be embarking on the most dreaded phase of the KFC SuperCoach cycle: the byes.

It’s the segment of the year that makes or breaks the rankings progress of even the finest and most seasoned coaches.

Every decision – literally every decision – between now and Round 12 must be meticulously considered for the betterment of your portfolio that will be decimated by the unavailability of core assets in R12-14.

The SuperCoach Investor has been steadily plotting his moves from around Rounds 5-6 with the aim of affording himself the best opportunity to launch into the final pursuit towards rankings royalty.

The trades are dwindling. The premiums are accruing. It’s a great time to be a member of The Begala Brigade in FY21.

Our resident expert, Daniel Begala, shares his views on the season-defining coaching decisions we face as the market inches towards the byes and the halfway point of our pilgrimage.

PATIENCE IS (NOT) A VIRTUE

I’ve played KFC SuperCoach for as long as I can remember.

There’s been some great decisions, some inspired decisions and some regretful trade decisions that have unwound some of my finest work.

But that’s why we love the game, right?

As we heads into the byes and approach the halfway mark of the AFL season, it’s time to make some pivotal and aggressive calls at the selection table.

The first tough call of the year? Little Tommy Powell.

North Melbourne youngster Tom Powell has done his job in KFC SuperCoach.

He’s been a revelation and will one day be a must-have in every KFC SuperCoach midfield as he blossoms into one of the game’s very best.

But fresh off his worst performance of the year (45 points) and an impending trading halt (Round 12 bye), it’s time to jettison Powell with the aim of maximising your return on investment and capitalising on the discounted premiums available at the Stock Exchange.

Jack Steele. Travis Boak. Christian Petracca. The list goes on, and on, and on.

Powell’s break even is now 106, which suggests it’s time to settle your investment and leverage his substantial capital appreciation to nab an underpriced superstar.

The Begala Bridage is considering the acquisition of a grossly discounted Christian Petracca ($530K MID).

It’s an aggressive play but with only five rookies still on the field, it’s a calculated risk we are willing to take to continue our rankings rise (overall rank 1334) and to eliminate sporadic rookie scoring.

Patience, although certainly a virtue, is not always suited to KFC SuperCoach.

The reason I am willing to aggressively “short” Powell from my portfolio is that I have substantial rookie depth including the likes of Anthony Scott, Lachie McNeil, Miles Bergman and Co who continue to play, score and appreciate handsomely.

Riley Collier-Dawkins hones his tackling skills at Tigers training.

FOMO? NO, IT’S RCD

Riley Collier-Dawkins, or “RCD”, looms as a pivotal rookie that many coaches – including yours truly – overlooked in favour of an upgrade last week.

The Begala Brigade, however, will be paying top dollar for a rookie that looks certain to thrive for the next 2-3 weeks as the Tigers continue to grapple with the unavailability of their premiership stars.

RCD registered 24 centre bounce attendances (“CBAs”) against GWS and looks certain to be afforded every opportunity to develop and, most importantly for KFC SuperCoaches, appreciate in value over the next month.

Kick-ins & CBAs. It’s that simple, right?

If you find a diamond, or, an RCD in the rough that boasts high CBAs, you must simply pay the option premium (~$50K) and acquire this exciting, but speculative stock.

To give you some context of RCD’s upside, ask yourself this one question: how many sub-$200K options are likely to attend 24 CBAs per game?

Christian Petracca has available for $101,000 under his starting value.

The notion of paying ~$180K for a rookie seems unpleasant, but RCD looks not only likely to appreciate handsomely, but may serve as a viable and consistent M8 while we continue to reinforce the gaping holes elsewhere.

He’s completed his apprenticeship at VFL level and – like we saw with Jake Aarts in FY20 – will be given every opportunity to cement his spot in the Tigers’ best 22.

Also consider the fact that there are no other rookies – other than Port Adelaide’s Lachie Jones – who look worthy of consideration as suitable downgrade solutions.

I missed Jarman Impey’s first pay rise in FY21, and last year missed Jordan Ridley’s major price hike due to hesitation.

What’s the moral of the story? It’s never too late to acquire an asset if you’re holding it long-term and foresee additional upside – which I do for RCD, given his responsibility within the Tigers’ engine room.

Pending team selection and the availability of stalwarts such as Trent Cotchin and Shane Edwards, I will most likely be trading Chad Warner to RCD with Powell to be upgraded to the raging bull, Christian Petracca.

At the grossly discounted price of $530K Petracca, epitomises the KFC SuperCoach phenomenon better described as arbitrage.

Upon the acquisition of Petracca, my portfolio will boast 18 premiums and merely four rookies at M7-8 and F5-6.

It’s an exciting time at The Begala Brigade.