KFC SuperCoach 2021: All the late mail and the Investor Daniel Begala’s finals advice ahead of Round 22
If you thought Tom Highmore being out was bad, things just got a whole lot harder in KFC SuperCoach. Get the latest mail for Round 22.
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KFC SuperCoaches hoping for a selection reprieve — especially in defence — have been dealt two Friday evening blows.
Popular KFC SuperCoach rookie Tom Highmore is out of St Kilda’s team to face Geelong on Saturday due to a hand injury.
Highmore has been a revelation in the second half of the campaign, averaging 82 points a game since the first ton of his career in Round 13.
Many teams would have had Highmore pencilled in to fill the spot of injured Swans pair Callum Mills or Jake Lloyd and his withdrawal on Friday leaves those without trades with a huge challenge to field a full defence.
But wait, it gets worse.
Mr Dependable Tom Stewart has joined another of the game’s most durable defenders — Jake Lloyd — on the sidelines due to injury.
Stewart was pulled from Geelong’s team on Friday due to a foot issue.
That means three of this year's top-seven ranked defenders will be missing in Round 22, when many KFC SuperCoaches have run out of trades or only have one left.
Tom Stewart late out for the Cats. Foot issue. More @superfooty
— Jay Clark (@ClarkyHeraldSun) August 13, 2021
If you had plans to use Jai Newcombe as a loophole in midfield for Shai Bolton or Tim Taranto, those have also been ruined.
Newcombe has replaced James Worpel in the Hawks’ 22 to face Western Bulldogs.
It comes after there was a big sigh of relief from KFC SuperCoach owners when Geelong and Carlton announced their Round 22 teams, but Sydney dropped a preliminary final bombshell on Thursday.
Patrick Dangerfield and Sam Walsh have been named to play after injury scares last weekend — a huge tick for coaches preparing for knockout finals.
But the Swans have sent finals plans into chaos by revealing Lloyd will sit out the clash against North Melbourne with knee soreness.
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Lloyd is one of the most dependable players in the game, missing just two games in the past six seasons to injury.
He is the fourth-ranked defender this season, averaging 105.5 points per game.
To make matters worse, Mills is also out after failing to recover from Achilles soreness.
And if you were hoping to use Kieren Briggs as cover in defence, he’s out as well.
Elsewhere, Lachie Neale returns from a bout of gastro, Essendon has named Dyson Heppell, Shannon Hurn is injured and North Melbourne has named last year’s R3 loophole favourite Charlie Comben for his AFL debut.
How to get your final team set
No trades left? That doesn’t mean you can’t make important changes to your KFC SuperCoach team this week.
The Round 21 fixture has been finalised so it’s time to start planning your loopholes and captain selection.
Friday night’s Giants-Tigers clash has been locked in for a few days so many KFC SuperCoaches will have already been pondering what to do with Tim Taranto.
He was back in the midfield last week, attending a team-high 19 centre bounces – up from two the previous round – to finish with 118 KFC SuperCoach points.
But Josh Kelly, who was a late withdrawal against the Cats, is back to face the Tigers, along with Jacob Hopper.
And Toby Greene won’t be there inside-50, either.
So, will Taranto play forward again?
He was terrific in a return to the customary midfield role, but coach Leon Cameron doesn’t care about KFC SuperCoach.
Worried owners, who aren’t sweating on a long list of injured premiums, should considering looping Taranto just in case.
But keep a close eye on Thursday night’s team announcements as to how you would potentially take his score.
Jai Newombe has not been named for Hawthorn but he is an emergency which leaves open the possibility he could be the medical sub against the Western Bulldogs — proceed with caution!
Kelly is an interesting VC option, too. The star midfielder has posted scores of 132 and 195 in his past two matches against Richmond, a side that conceded a combined 72 disposals to young North Melbourne midfielders Luke Davies-Uniacke and Jy Simpkin last weekend.
There is also Tiger Shai Bolton to assess. He attended 15 centre bounces last week and was important after halftime. But after a horror first half, which saw him lose points for giving away free kicks and a 50m penalty, Bolton could only manage 66.
After spending most of the previous week inside-50, however, the midfield was time was what owners were hoping to see.
Loop him if you can, but it shouldn’t be at the top of your list. Teammates Callum Coleman-Jones and Matt Parker are higher priorities.
The first game on Saturday between the Bulldogs and Hawks has been confirmed for UTAS Stadium in Launceston. Good news for Tom Mitchell, who has scored 132, 131, 114, 76, 90, 159, 106, 135 and 126 in his past nine matches at the venue.
Bulldogs star Jack Macrae, on the other hand, averages just 89 points per game there.
It would still be hard to overlook Macrae as VC in the second game of the round, given his form, but the history isn’t great.
Young teammate Cody Weightman “had some persisting general soreness” according to Bulldogs head of sports medicine Chris Bell last week but he has been named, for those KFC SuperCoaches looking for forward cover.
The Cats host the Saints on Saturday afternoon and Patrick Dangerfield will play.
“After extensive assessments and tests, he’s been cleared to play and was cleared early in the week, so that’s good news,” coach Chris Scott said on Thursday.
Mark O’Connor is also likely to return in news that may make those considering Jack Steele as VC a little nervous.
But it’s unlikely anyone can stop Steele in his current form, which has seen the St Kilda skipper score 132 or more in eight of his past 10 matches.
The first game on Sunday is another big game for KFC SuperCoach captains.
Demons gun Clayton Oliver has posted a KFC SuperCoach double ton in each of his past two games against the Crows.
Yes, 200 or more both times. But will Adelaide let it happen again?
Teammate Max Gawn may rocket back into captaincy consideration, too, after the Crows ruled out ruckman Reilly O’Brien through injury. One-game big man Keiran Strachan is his replacement.
Or does it give Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin even more reason to ruck Luke Jackson full-time?
Keep a close eye on that one.
And in another big tick for many KFC SuperCoaches considering Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish as C, Essendon will host Gold Coast at GMHBA Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
SC Investor: ‘Ugly’ tactics to get the edge in a SuperCoach prelim
– Daniel Begala
The most pivotal week in the KFC SuperCoach calendar is upon us.
It’s not the preliminary final, it’s the “people’s final”. The KFC SuperCoach Grand Final is typically dominated by the corporates, but this weekend, it’s for the purists of our game – the fans.
Our resident expert, Daniel Begala, shares the key strategies for successfully navigating a crunch-time preliminary final where there are no prizes for finishing second this weekend.
BACK TO SCHOOL
The kids are learning from home, so it’s time to follow suit and bone up on your opposition/s (if you’re lucky to have multiple finals this weekend).
The KFC SuperCoach Investor typically focuses all of his attention and resourcing on the composition of his own portfolio, but in preliminary final week, that changes drastically.
Take a look across the fence.
Does the grass look greener?
If so, how much “greener” and where are your greatest vulnerabilities and threats?
These are the key questions that should be at the forefront of every preliminary final-bound coach in the land.
Study the match-up. Identify your strengths, weaknesses and key points of difference.
If possible, try to forecast – once the AFL schedule is confirmed – any additional loophole flexibility available across each team as part of the match-up.
The best play is usually to set up any loopholes early in the week to prepare for every possible permutation.
An astute KFC SuperCoach should NEVER be surprised by an opposition’s move during the heat of battle – preparation is the key.
So plot those match-ups, forecast scores — for yourself and your opponent — and focus on unravelling your opposition for the betterment of your side.
O CAPTAIN! MY CAPTAIN!
A key attribute of successful opposition analysis is determining the best captaincy solution to one-up your opposition in the heat of battle.
The benefits may be marginal, or marked, but it’s up to you to ensure you’ve done the upmost preparation to achieve even a 20-point buffer on your opponents.
Study every player’s scoring pedigree against their opposition. Study their “current” form — past three and past five rounds.
The Begala Brigade will likely bestow VC duties on Jack Steele (three-round avg: 141 | five-round avg: 143) – once the schedule is confirmed – with a diverse array of candidates available should the “permanent” captain fail to deliver.
Your decision on who will don the captain’s armband should then be tightly held with “foxing” a must during the week leading into the final and, most importantly, throughout the weekend.
The KFC SuperCoach Investor will typically move the captaincy from player-to-player across the weekend to ensure the upmost level of secrecy and surprise.
In a match-up defined by small margins, it’s essential that you pay heed to the potential upside of a successful captaincy decision. Of course, you need to double and triple-check the start times of every match — no one wants to bow out in a prelim after a decoy captain is locked in by mistake.
One other tactic that coaches should consider at the business end of proceedings is known as captaincy “tagging”.
In this rare strategy, coaches can opt to mimic their opposition’s captaincy approach if the are confident the remainder of their portfolio has the scoring potential to outscore their opposition.
If you’re entrenched in a tight tussle and let’s say the final match of the round is Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn, and you’ve locked away 130 with Jack Steele as VC with a lead of lead of say, 20 points.
It sounds great, right?
What if there are no other “unique” players in your portfolio other than Jack Macrae, and your opposition has the “C” firmly installed on his icon within KFC SuperCoach?
This is not a unique circumstance, especially if your opponent is behind and searching for a move to overtake you in the final game of the round. The solution here is to “tag” your opposition and also appoint Jack Macrae as captain — cancelling out any advantage they could gain from the move.
It may impact your overall ranking if Macrae’s score doesn’t match your earlier VC, but that all pales into insignificance if the strategic decision waltzes you into the Big Dance next week.
It’s called winning ugly, and The KFC SuperCoach Investor has successfully navigated many finals over the course of his career with this strategy.
TRADING PLACES
Many SuperCoaches are clinging to one precious trade to be deployed only in the event of a serious injury to a premium player.
That could happen in a KFC SuperCoach grand final, but what’s the use of that trade if you don’t even get the opportunity to play off for a premiership cup?
As they say in the final throes of cult classic Gattaca, “never save anything for the swim back” when it comes to trades.
If Patrick Dangerfield, Sam Walsh or Josh Kelly are unavailable this week, I will have no hesitation in jettisoning them from my side with preference to close out the Brodie Grundy absence at R2 (via DPP).
It would be my last trade, but alas, in future years no one recalls who finished second, let alone who was knocked out in the preliminary final.
Go for broke, but most importantly, don’t be afraid to go down to zero trades with a week to play — there are lots of coaches in the same boat!
Your bullish behaviour may be rewarded with an injury grand final carnage.
Trade well, folks, and best of luck this weekend.
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