KFC SuperCoach AFL: 14 players you shouldn’t start with in 2023

There were 15 players in our first edition of the KFC SuperCoach no-go zone. Now, there’s 14. Here’s why we took a big Cat out and why you should consider choosing him.

KFC SuperCoach isn’t just about players you start with.

Sometimes, those you avoid can be just as important.

It's why we spend hours studying pre-season training notes, looking for any bit of evidence which suggests a player shouldn’t make our KFC SuperCoach team.

Whether it be injury, role, scoring history or job security, there is generally good reason to overlook one player in favour of another.

After all, you can only pick 30 players in your squad and your KFC SuperCoach budget only stretches so far.

This year’s No Go Zone includes several top scorers from 2022, a boom rookie who more than 15,000 teams have selected and a swingman who went from zero to hero after moving to defence.

Some of these names might seem harsh, but the No Go Zone takes no prisoners.

Scroll down to see the players you should avoid in 2023.

RATUGOLEA OUT OF NO-GO ZONE: HERE’S WHY

I’m sorry Esava.

And I’m sorry to anyone who took Esava Ratugolea out of their teams after reading this article.

The big Cat was one of 15 players who featured in our no-go zone when it was first published.

But, he’s not there anymore.

After taking three intercept marks in the first quarter against Hawthorn playing as a key defender, Ratugolea has rocketed into contention for KFC SuperCoach teams at $174k.

Perhaps more importantly, he’s a serious chance of making Geelong’s round 1 side - and lasting longer than one game in the seniors.

*Removes Esava Ratugolea from #SuperCoach no-go zone*

— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) February 23, 2023

10 intercept marks for Esava Ratugolea in the final two VFL matches last year.

He had 2 in the first 7 minutes against the Hawks 👀 #SuperCoach

— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) February 23, 2023

Tom Hawkins is all but certain to miss the Cats’ season opener, Jack Henry has reinjured his foot and although Ollie Henry starred in attack, Henry being sidelined would likely give Ratugolea a chance to press his claims for a spot in the Geelong defence fulltime.

Playing in defence in the last two rounds of the 2022 VFL season, Ratugolea averaged 14 disposals, seven marks, eight contested possessions and 86 ranking points.

Here’s a case for starting him at R2:

- It frees up cash to add a premium in another position (ideally midfield). If you started Ratugolea over Tim English, the extra $400k could turn Marcus Windhager or Finn Callaghan into Marcus Bontempelli.

- His RUC-FWD status means if a ruckman emerges as a must-have by round 3 price changes, you can swing Ratugolea FWD and trade an underperforming MID or FWD to that ruckman.

- Even if Henry returns, Ratugolea might play well enough that Geelong just can’t afford to leave him out.

What do you think?

Esava the R2? Don’t rule it out. Picture: Mark Wilson

KFC SUPERCOACH’S 2023 NO-GO ZONE

No more luscious locks or defensive time for Harry Himmelberg, it seems.

Harry Himmelberg $499,000 DEF/FWD

Disaster for KFC SuperCoaches with Himmelberg seemingly confirming he will be returning to the forward line under new Giants coach Adam Kingsley. In early February, he told the AFL website: “(Kingsley) thought, with the way we’re going to play and with the way the game plan was going to eventuate, that my attributes would suit us as a forward. At the moment, it’s going really well.” While Himmelberg said there was still scope for him to play as a swingman and be used in defence, that quote effectively ruled him out as a KFC SuperCoach option for this year. Himmelberg averaged 112 points in the last 12 matches of 2022 after being swung into defence by interim coach Mark McVeigh. There was hope his success as an intercept defender would give Kingsley little choice, especially after key forward Aaron Cadman became a Giant with the No.1 draft pick. But the uncertainty about where Himmelberg will play, and likelihood it will be forward, means you can rule a line through him – although he might be cheaper later in the year when a more regular backline opportunity could open up due to injury or form.

Josh Goater is one of the most popular rookies of 2023 despite an elevated price.

Josh Goater $192,700 DEF-MID

Maybe I’m being harsh, but I just can’t buy into the Goater hype. Normally KFC SuperCoaches would be fuming because he played one game last season, scored 70 and has an inflated price as a result. But that hasn’t deterred about 22 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams at time of writing from picking Goater. Reading the track reports out of Arden St, it seems just about everyone has had a crack across half-back this pre-season. One track watcher said “Goater was straight into the SuperCoach backline” after watching a session, but I’m definitely more cautious. If he’s named on a back flank come round 1 he will be popular, but don’t expect big numbers when Aaron Hall is back. Jack Ziebell also said recently he was set to return to defence. You just have to wonder where Goater sits in the pecking order. Is one eye-catching game really enough to get him a regular spot and justify paying more than $190k?

Aaron Hall watches on during a North Melbourne training session. Picture: Mark Stewart

Aaron Hall $538,600 DEF

There have been mixed reports about Hall’s off-season progress, with one fan suggesting he was dealing with a lower leg issue as recently as late January. That’s a massive red flag for a player who has both delighted and frustrated KFC SuperCoaches in the past three seasons. The reality is that as talented as he is – and as good as his role at half-back for North Melbourne is for KFC SuperCoach – Hall has played 20 games in a season only once in the past nine years. That was at times owing to form as well as injury, but it gives you an indication of just how risky a pick Hall is. Last year he posted a season-high 153, then 18 the next week when he injured his quad. That’s the rollercoaster of picking a player with a history of soft-tissue problems. If you’re already taking a risk on one or both of Elliot Yeo and Nat Fyfe, there’s no way you can start Hall as well. At least the other two come at a big price discount.

Wait until Max Gawn gets DPP, then jump on if the role is right. Picture: Michael Klein

Max Gawn $622,100 RUC

There are few worse roles in KFC SuperCoach than playing as a key forward. If it’s correct that Gawn is heading into attack to accommodate Brodie Grundy, then his starting price tag of more than $600,000 is massive overs. The Demons skipper will, of course, share ruck duties with Grundy throughout the season. But if Gawn is going to be the one spending more time in attack of the old “set and forget” duo, then you can forget starting with him. The only reason to reconsider this position would be if the Demons instead went with a similar ruck model to Geelong. That could mean Gawn starting in the centre square, then playing a kick behind the ball as Rhys Stanley did successfully during the finals last year. Intercept marks are a big scorer in KFC SuperCoach and if Gawn plays that role, we’ll happily delete him from this list. It’s a different argument if he spends enough time forward to become a FWD-RUC, as he would only need to average 100-plus to be close to the top six or eight forwards.

Zach Merrett traditionally does his best work in the second half of the year. Picture: Michael Klein

Zach Merrett

This might seem controversial, especially when the Bombers star hasn’t averaged under 100 since his second year in the system (2015). But history suggests it’s worth waiting for Merrett rather than starting him. Last year he dropped from $625,700 to $520,700 after round 13 – and that was with six tons in eight games. In 2021, he dropped from a starting price of $620,900 to $541,800 by round 12 – again with only two scores below 100. In 2019 Merrett’s price went from a season high of $615,800 after round 7 to $492,500 by round 19. You get the picture. KFC SuperCoach is all about buying players at the right time and although Merrett could jump out of the blocks, history suggests he will be a lot cheaper than his starting price at some stage.

Zach Merrett 2020-22
Round 1-12: 105.5
Round 13 onwards: 119.8

— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) February 9, 2023

Can Josh Bruce get a spot in a packed Western Bulldogs backline? Picture: Michael Klein

Josh Bruce $161,200 FWD

Bruce has been training in defence over summer and is sitting in more than 10 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams as a result, but where does he sit in the Bulldogs’ backline pecking order? Alex Keath and Ryan Gardner have been Luke Beveridge’s preferred talls in the backline, and Sam Darcy is another exciting option who can play at both ends of the ground. Throw Liam Jones into that mix and it’s hard to see how Bruce gets a game in round 1. The Dogs also have Tim O’Brien to call on if required. You’ve got to wonder whether Bruce’s potential change of ends is more of an insurance policy after Josh Schache and Zaine Cordy moved on. Either way, he’s unlikely to feature enough to be a KFC SuperCoach cash cow. Pick Ben King, Luke Pedlar or Jye Menzie (pending selection) instead.

Some serious height on that Bulldogs list now!

Lobb 206cm
English 205
Darcy 205
Sweet 202
Jones 198
Gardner 197
Keath 197
Busslinger 197
Bruce 196
Naughton 194
Jamarra 194
Bont 194
O'Brien 193#afldraft

— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) November 28, 2022

Sam Walsh’s return date after back surgery remains uncertain. Picture: Jonathan DiMaggio

Sam Walsh $610,900 MID

There are more than 700 KFC SuperCoach teams who have selected Sam Walsh. Why? Walsh had back surgery in December and is certain to miss the start of the season, if not much longer. Target him as a mid-season upgrade around the byes instead if he returns strongly.

Orazio Fantasia $203,300 FWD

Small forwards and KFC SuperCoach are strange bedfellows. Throw in the fact Fantasia has played 46 games in the past five seasons (and 19 in the past three) and you have ample reason to overlook the price tag of just over $200,000. Even if the forward rookie pool is shallow come round 1, Fantasia isn’t the answer.

Aaron Cadman (right) with fellow draftee and milk enthusiast Jason Gillbee.

Aaron Cadman $207,300 FWD

Let’s take a look at the first-year averages of some of the talls drafted in recent years. Sam Darcy 55, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan 47, Riley Thilthorpe 60, Logan McDonald 53, Luke Jackson 58. That should tell you all you need to know. Cadman is going to likely be playing as a third tall next to Himmelberg and Jesse Hogan as he acclimatises to the AFL. That should help, but it’s hard to imagine he will get many opportunities in a team which will be rebuilding after several key departures. And he needs to score well from the outset to justify paying his top rookie price. There’s also the likelihood he will be managed throughout his debut season, as most young key-position players are. There are just too many question marks to pick him, and history says an average between 45-60 is likely.

Tarryn Thomas $295,700 MID-FWD

A mooted halfback move was set to make Thomas one of the best mid-price picks of the year. But it’s uncertain when he will be back at North Melbourne as he deals with serious off-field issues. As of February 19, he was still in more than 1700 teams.

Aaron Francis trains at his new club.

Aaron Francis $189,400 DEF-FWD

Some KFC SuperCoaches are calling him Patty McCartin 2.0, but I just can’t see it. He currently sits in almost 5000 teams, but where is Francis fitting into that Sydney backline? The Swans already have Tom McCartin as their defensive pillar, Dane Rampe continues to be as reliable as they come and Patty McCartin was an intercept beast last year. Then there’s Robbie Fox who was arguably Sydney’s best player in the finals series. Francis might get a look in at some stage, but has only played more than eight games in a season twice in his career. There are better KFC SuperCoach selections at a similar price – Reuben Gibney, Conor McKenna and even West Coast’s Tom Cole.

Dayne Zorko was injured in three games last year which hurt his KFC SuperCoach average.

Dayne Zorko $453,200 FWD

There will no doubt be some KFC SuperCoaches who would make the argument the Brisbane Lions captain is underpriced. After all, he’s priced at an average of about 82 after posting the lowest KFC SuperCoach average of his career in 2022. There are two major reasons Zorko is a player who should be avoided, even if his starting price appears to be value. The arrival of Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft is going to have a big impact on his midfield time. When Zorko became one of the best scorers in the game for a six-week purple patch two years ago, it was largely his work in the middle and tackling which resulted in him racking up so many points. The other is his injuries. Last season, Zorko was hurt three times during games, posting scores of 26, 53 and 6 in those matches. At 34, you’d have to be concerned whether Zorko will be managed, especially with the enviable depth Brisbane now boasts. Either way, three injuries in one season – a calf and two hamstrings – should make KFC SuperCoaches very wary. He also suffered another hamstring setback in early February.

Braydon Preuss and Kieren Briggs battle at training.

Braydon Preuss $506,000 RUC

Do you really need this one explained? OK then. Injury, suspension, selection. You name it and Preuss owners endured it last year. There was reason to back him in last year at only $204k and after six consecutive tons the pick looked an inspired move. But Preuss played only four games from round 10 onwards, didn’t reach triple figures again and scored 17 in a match where he was hurt. He just finds ways to frustrate KFC SuperCoaches, and we aren’t even sure where he sits in the Giants long list of ruckmen. I’d be more prepared to take a risk on someone like Scott Lycett ($429k) than ride the Preuss rollercoaster again. Even if he is one of the game’s best contested-possession winning rucks, which the KFC SuperCoach scorers love.

Collingwood defender Charlie Dean has been placed on the long-term injury list.

Charlie Dean $123,900 DEF

Still features in more than 3000 KFC SuperCoach teams after it was announced he had been placed on the long-term injury list due to a foot injury. Dean was set to be one of the most popular rookie defenders in KFC SuperCoach last year before being injured, and it appears 2023 will be a similar story. Dean has been replaced on the Magpies list by Oleg Markov and most of those coaches who still had him on February 19 will need to do similar. Not by selecting Markov, but finding another defensive rookie. Will Gould, maybe? We can dream.