KFC SuperCoach 2023: Champion Data guru Fantasy Freako’s first draft team
Champion Data’s KFC SuperCoach guru Fantasy Freako has picked his first draft team for 2023 – with the numbers to back it up. See his full line-up here.
SuperCoach
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperCoach. Followed categories will be added to My News.
After back back-to-back finishes in the top 1,500 in 2020-21 a 5000-plus rank last year wasn’t ideal. So I’m looking to bounce back this year.
Like every first draft team, it is subject to change as there are still plenty of unknowns – mostly from a rookie point of view. We also have four new coaches at the helm, with Brad Scott, Adam Kingsley, Alastair Clarkson and Ross Lyons taking the reins. There will be new game plans and likely positional changes, so identifying these early could be extremely rewarding.
As with 2022, we’ll only have one official match of pre-season data to decipher, so we’ll have to back in our research through training notes and comments made by coaches and assistants – as well as players themselves.
In terms of overall structure, I’m still somewhat undecided about the premium breakdown – but in saying that I’m quite keen to start heavy in the midfield. I may drop one premium and redistribute the funds to gain a better balance, but I’m content with what I have for now. Essentially, it’s a guns and rookie type structure, with only one player in the $300k-$350k range.
Some of the notable absentees in this draft team include popular pre-season picks Nick Daicos, Elliot Yeo, Tim Taranto, Nat Fyfe and Darcy Cameron. Of that group, Yeo and Taranto are the two I’m keen on. But to get Yeo I’ll have to sacrifice a premium, so a restructure will need to occur. If Yeo gets through the pre-season unscathed, then he will be hard to overlook.
Premiums are treasured assets and as good as Nick Daicos was in his debut season, there are no certainties that he improves on those numbers. I’m not saying that he’ll regress in any way, but the safe play would be to see how he fares early before making a call. Trading up to Daicos is always an option at any time.
DEFENDERS
Structure: Two premiums and six rookies.
You can throw a blanket over 10 or so premiums in defence as viable starting options, but I’ve opted for Sam Docherty as my first defender after an exceptional 2022 season – averaging 110 points, his second-most on record. His returns over his career when playing all 22 home-and-away games have been outstanding – averaging 109, 114 and 110 in that order. So, durability is an important consideration.
Docherty had only three scores below 80 last season and scored 120-plus in almost half of his games. He was thrown into the midfield late in the season after injuries hit and produced scores of 121 and 138, generating a total of 12 clearances and applying 17 tackles. There is a slight chance that he plays in the midfield in the early rounds with a few Blues having interrupted pre-seasons due to injury, but essentially, he’ll be a defender.
Jordan Dawson is my other premium defender after a faultless debut season with the Crows. I’m hoping he spends more time in defence compared to the wing, as he averaged 111 points per 100 minutes as a defender compared to 90 on the wing. Dawson was one of just two defenders to rate elite for disposals, metres gained, intercept marks and intercept possessions last year, along with Tom Stewart.
Conor McKenna picks himself at his close to basement price, while Hawthorn rookie Josh Weddle could be the round 1 bolter we’re all starting with. The Hawks traded back into the first round of the draft to nab Weddle, who’s taller and heavier than James Sicily. The Hawks are a team in transition – blooding eight debutants in 2022, with only West Coast who was hit by Covid having more (11). So I like his chances of getting game time at some stage.
Corey Wagner rounds out the starting position in defence, although his place in the team will be heavily dependent on the hamstring injury he suffered at training in late January.
Darcy Wilmot headlines the bench rookies.
MIDFIELDERS
Structure: Five premiums, one mid-pricer and five rookies.
Considering that the midfield was the only position to have anyone average more than 120 points last season (four in total) it’s the position I have loaded up in.
Clayton Oliver leads my midfield brigade after improving his average from 125 to a career-high 129. He dropped below 112 just twice from round 10 through to the end of Melbourne’s finals campaign, averaging a competition-high 134 points in that time. His finger injury is a lingering concern, but he did still average 123 after missing that one game in round 18.
Touk Miller is a player I owned last season and I’m on board again for 2023. Averaging a healthy 120, he had a low score of 98 from round 11 and helped himself to four scores over 150 over this period. He combined 72 times with Jarrod Witts as a ruck-rover combination – ranked No.1 in the competition and 15 more than any other combo. One of the best two-ways runners in the game, Miller also won a career-high 53 per cent of his possessions in a contested manner.
The departure of Josh Dunkley will leave a gaping hole in the Bulldogs’ midfield, which is why I’m doubling up, that is starting both Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae. Why, you ask? Last time Dunkley missed games was back in 2021, and Bontempelli averaged 116 and Macrae 115 over that 10-week stretch.
Both are durable and with the Bulldogs stacked for offensive weapons hopefully Bontempelli won’t be needed in attack, where he spent 33 per cent of his game time in 2022. Macrae, on the other hand, spent 14 per cent of time up forward and 4 per cent on the wing.
Like the Bulldogs, the Giants will have a new-look midfield ahead of the new season after both Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto departed. They’ll need someone to step up, which is why I’m backing Tom Green. He was the seventh-ranked midfielder in the league after the first seven rounds in 2022 with an average of 120, but he couldn’t go on with it. A combination of time up forward, poor form and injury saw him average 86 from rounds 8-23, but more importantly, he averaged 105 without Hopper and Taranto in the side. He also averaged 112 from the seven games he attended at least 65 per cent of centre bounces, and at his price Green has huge upside.
With the way my side is structured I have room for only one mid-price player and that’s Jacob Hopper. He could also be Dom Sheed or James Worpel, but I’ve decided to go with Hopper at this stage.
Hopper missed 13 games through injury last year and his numbers took a hit, which is why he’s so cheap. He averaged 90-plus points in every year between 2019 and 2021 and although it’s highly unlikely he ends up being a keeper, if he can nudge 95 points most weeks, he’ll be a solid stepping stone.
Will Ashcroft’s SuperCoach credentials have been well documented with scores of 119, 126, and 146 from three VFL games in 2022. He also scored over 130 in 13 of 14 games in the NAB League. Ashcroft will be given plenty of opportunities by the Lions and could even pick up DPP status should he play longer than 35 per cent in another position.
The remaining on-field midfield spot goes to Will Phillips. He has turned plenty of heads during the pre-season and after his 2022 season was ruined by glandular fever he looks set to feature early. Phillips scored 120 and 126 points respectively in his final two games in the VFL in 2021.
Mattaes Phillipou headlines the rookies on the bench.
RUCKS
Structure: Two premiums and one floating doughnut.
For the first time in a very long time the ruck positions aren’t straightforward. The trusty “set and forget” strategy went right out the window last year as only four ruckmen played all 22 home-and-away matches, with popular picks such as Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy, Tim English and Sean Darcy all missing games through injury.
The move of Grundy to Melbourne to partner Gawn has further muddied the waters. Can the two coexist and still put-up strong numbers? History says that they can – Nic Naitanui and Dean Cox averaged 114 and 112 points respectively in 2012. Naitanui spent just 57 per cent of game time in the ruck that year as well. Both players had over 35 per cent of game time as forwards, which would have earned them DPP status based under the current rules. Could Gawn and Grundy follow suit?
Last season, Gawn played 72 per cent of game time in the ruck while Luke Jackson basically had a 50-50 ruck-forward split. So, does that mean that Grundy takes Jackson’s role? Or will Gawn now spend more time in attack to allow Grundy ruck time? Only time will tell. A hamstring injury to Gawn during the pre-season has added a further complication to the mix.
As a result, both are a wait and see for mine which is why I have opted for Jarrod Witts, who has a monopoly on the ruck position at the Suns. He returned strongly from injury and enjoyed a career-best season in 2022, ranking second in the league behind only Gawn for points per game by a ruckman with 110. He scored 130-plus in eight games – with a high of 154 in round 4 – while posting a career-high hitout-to-advantage rate of 34 per cent.
If I don’t go for Witts, Tim English is the player I’d target, although his durability must be a concern – missing 19 games through injury in the last five seasons. We have already had an early scare with a tight adductor keeping him sidelined for a short period of time this pre-season. If I go down this path, then turning to Darcy Cameron in the forwards could be a tactic as coverage for English should he miss.
The other ruck position goes to Rowan Marshall. After Paddy Ryder’s retirement Marshall will lead the Saints’ ruck division and his numbers when he played at least 80 per cent of game time in that role last season were huge – averaging 115 points from nine games. That would have made him the No.1 ruckman in the league.
Role is key for Marshall, as he averaged 101 points per 100 minutes of game time when playing in the ruck compared to just 66 points as a forward.
An injury to Jack Hayes and interrupted pre-season of Tom Campbell may work in Marshall’s favour as there are no other rucks with AFL experience on the St Kilda list to call upon – so they’ll have to turn to the likes of Cooper Sharman, Josh Battle or untried youngsters to give him a chop out.
Nicholas Madden is on the bench as the basement price floating doughnut. The Giants have the most Sunday games of any team and picking him significantly improves my ability to use the VC loophole.
Should a playing rookie option emerge then I’ll more than likely make a change.
FORWARDS
Structure: Three premiums and five rookies.
Josh Dunkley’s selection is a no-brainer. He has averaged 100-plus points in four consecutive seasons and is coming off a 108-point year – his second-best on record. His arrival will also take some of the pressure off Lachie Neale, who has carried the Lions’ midfield since arriving at the club in 2019.
Dunkley spent 42 per cent of game time in the forward line last year but I doubt that happens this season, with the Lions likely to play him predominantly as an onballer – we hope so, anyway.
After starting last season at the low price of $261,300 Stephen Coniglio is the second-most expensive forward in the game, and I’m more than happy to pay up. He clicked into gear in round 10 last season after returning to a permanent midfield role, ranking 11th in the league from that point with 111 points per game. Like most players, role if key for Coniglio after averaging 117 points per 100 minutes as a midfielder compared to just 78 as a forward.
There are plenty of viable options for my third forward slot and that has gone to Connor Rozee. Dylan Moore and Tim Taranto are also worthy candidates, but Rozee finished last season off in style with 34 disposals, a goal and a career-high 162 points in round 23. I expect he’ll spend more time in the midfield this year which can only be a good thing for his scoring, with Travis Boak making way. Let’s hope that eventuates, as he averaged just 74 points per 100 minutes as a forward compared to 110 in the midfield.
At this stage I don’t have a spot for the underpriced Nat Fyfe, and should I decide to bring him in, the team will require a major restructure to free up funds. I have opted for Toby McLean instead and after a strong pre-season, and he looms as a solid choice should he earn a round 1 start. He scored 100 points in the elimination final against Fremantle from 21 disposals and nine tackles playing as wing/forward. With Lachie Hunter departing, ideally McLean will fill that role, but he may be competing for a spot as a centre bounce midfielder instead.
Ben King and Fergus Greene round out my forwards, with Greene poised to replace the outgoing Jack Gunston as Hawthorn’s roaming forward. Greene was goalless just twice from 17 games in the VFL and averaged 91 points – scoring 110-plus seven times. He could also be called upon early after the recent injury to Mitch Lewis.
Thomas Berry and Jacob van Rooyen make up the bench.
Money in the bank: $92,900
FINAL WORD
The pre-season is all about finetuning your team and getting the balance right. There is no one way to pick a team, so back your research and don’t be afraid to be different.
Injuries are also important, and history says that if you are underdone, then your output could be affected – so choose your premiums wisely.
Nailing the rookies is also paramount because if you don’t you’ll burn through trades quickly playing catch-up. Last season Jack Hayes (127), Josh Rachele (118) and Nic Martin (114) all hit three figures in round 1, while Nick Daicos (98) got close and if you owned that quartet, then you were well on the way to a good year.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @FantasyFreako during the pre-season as well, as I’ll be tweeting key stats from all the AFL AAMI Community Series matches.
Happy tinkering and best of luck for 2023!
Five moves that won me $50,000 in SuperCoach
The 20-year-old winner of SuperCoach AFL 2024 reveals the tactics that led him to the game’s top prize, beating out more than 180,000 players across the country.
SuperCoach wrap: Norm-worthy stars and grand final flops
Who stood up on the biggest SuperCoach stage and who disappointed when it counted most? Check out round 24’s heroes and villains – and some hot tips for 2025.