KFC SuperCoach 2023: 11 underpriced and overpriced players to watch
Identifying a player’s true value is a key to success in KFC SuperCoach. We’ve done the work for you, listing 11 players to watch and 11 to avoid in 2023.
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Some huge potential bargains jumped off the page when full prices were released for KFC SuperCoach AFL 2023 last week.
A closer reading of the numbers has revealed further nuggets, and players who we might want to avoid next season – at least if we don’t want to lose money.
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11 UNDERPRICED PLAYERS
Harry Himmelberg (GWS) $499,000 DEF-FWD
The GWS utility was one of the great beneficiaries of Mark McVeigh’s interim coaching revolution as he shuffled into defence and became a hugely relevant KFC SuperCoach player. Himmelberg was averaging 62 KFC SuperCoach points a game to round 10 and bottomed out at $318k before his campaign came to life with consecutive scores of 126 and 187 playing in defence. Himmelberg averaged 112 in the last 12 rounds of 2022 in his new role, including eight tons and only two scores of less than 95. A season average of 112 would have priced Himmelberg at more than $600,000 yet he’s available for less than $500,000. Now all eyes are on Adam Kingsley to see where he uses Himmelberg in his first season as Giants coach.
Rory Sloane (Adelaide) $413,800 MID
OK, at almost 33 years old and coming off a long-term injury, Sloane carries several KFC SuperCoach red flags. But bear in mind his 2022 average of 83.5 was his lowest since 2010. To give some perspective, that’s the year there was a drawn grand final, new St Kilda coach Ross Lyon was still in his first stint as Saints coach and Chris Judd shocked hot favourite Dane Swan to win the Brownlow Medal. Most KFC SuperCoaches will remember that year mostly fondly as fantasy hall of famer Michael Barlow debuted for Fremantle. But we digress. Perhaps one of the most compelling reasons to consider Sloane as a KFC SuperCoach option is the amount of time he spent forward in his four appearances in 2022. As Adelaide transitions to a new-look midfield, Sloane could become a MID-FWD for potentially just over $400,000. He only needs to average 95-105 to potentially be a F6 keeper and he’s more than capable of that. All eyes on how he progresses during pre-season.
Dayne Zorko (Brisbane Lions) $453,200 FWD
Perhaps one of the biggest positional shocks for KFC SuperCoach 2023 was the Brisbane Lions captain being listed as a FWD. Zorko finished last season as a DEF-MID but will reprise the role he dominated in KFC SuperCoach in 2021. Zorko endured an injury-hit and at times controversial campaign, hurt in round 1 (26 KFC SuperCoach points) and round 16 (6 KFC SuperCoach points). He subsequently finished with the lowest KFC SuperCoach average of his career (82.3) and will start next season more than $140,000 cheaper than in 2022. The make-up of Chris Fagan’s midfield will likely decide whether Zorko can return to premium numbers. If he spends time in the engine room expect a spike in numbers, but competition will be fierce after the arrival of Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft. He’s underpriced, his regular position will decide by how much.
Darcy Cameron (Collingwood) $465,900 RUC-FWD
Anyone who played KFC SuperCoach in 2022 will know my love for the man affectionately known as DCAM – to me, at least. Cameron will be Collingwood’s No. 1 ruckman next year after Brodie Grundy’s move to Melbourne and shapes as a popular selection after retaining FWD status. Cameron was averaging 46.6 points until round 6 when Grundy was injured and he took on the mantle as the Pies’ leading big man. Cameron averaged 96.5 from round 7 onwards despite showing signs of fatigue later in the campaign. His best run was rounds 7-15 when he averaged 110.6. An average of 96 would ordinarily have Cameron priced closer to $500,000, and it’s clear his potential to push to an average of 100-plus makes him a great underpriced target. With question marks over most of the top-priced options in his position, expect him to be one of the popular starting picks of 2023.
Nick Daicos (Collingwood) $502,500 DEF
How can a player who averaged 91 points a game and is priced accordingly be underpriced? Put simply, Daicos’s scoring is only going to take off from here. The Magpies father-son gun enjoyed a remarkable debut season, scoring six KFC SuperCoach tons and becoming a season keeper for many coaches after starting at $193,800. This assessment of Daicos isn’t based off statistics and he isn’t undervalued due to injury or form, like other players on the list. He’s undervalued because at some point he’s going to push into the uber premium category, and it would take a brave KFC SuperCoach to bet against that taking place in 2023. Daicos hit $562k in round 20 of his debut season and has all the traits to become a regular 100-plus KFC SuperCoach scorer.
Ben Cunnington (North Melbourne) $419,000 MID-FWD
Cunnington’s return to football after battling testicular cancer was one of the inspiring football stories of 2022. KFC SuperCoaches who expected the North Melbourne hard man to be priced off two games when he averaged 49.5 were being a bit optimistic. But our friends at Champion Data have at least given us pause for thought by naming Cunnington as a FWD as well as a MID for 2023. There are always unknowns when a new coach takes over and Cunnington has played only 20 games in the past three seasons due to his health issues. But if there are any signs Alastair Clarkson intends to use Cunnington as part of his midfield rotation, he should be on your KFC SuperCoach radar. At $419k price Cunnington is priced at an average of about 77. The last time he averaged that low in a full season was 2012.
Brodie Grundy (Melbourne) $512,900 RUC
Who knows if Grundy is truly undervalued or if we’re living in the past. But at this stage, he at least appears to present value. Grundy’s partnership with Max Gawn looms as the greatest pre-season talking point in KFC SuperCoach for 2023. Will the Demons ruck pairing ruin each other as KFC SuperCoach premiums or can they propel each other to even greater heights? This is Grundy’s lowest starting price since 2016, which was two years before he became a KFC SuperCoach stud by averaging 130. Perhaps the most compelling part of Grundy’s partnership with Gawn will be who spends most time forward. At some point in 2023 KFC SuperCoaches are likely to be able to get Grundy and/or Gawn as a RUC-FWD. And if Grundy’s price stays this low, that might be too hard to ignore.
Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide) $513,800 FWD-MID
It seemed only a matter of time until Rozee became a KFC SuperCoach star, and after his addition to Port Adelaide’s midfield he fits firmly into that category. Ken Hinkley waited until round 5 to make Rozee a regular part of his onball rotation and the results were staggering. After KFC SuperCoach scores of 25, 48, 75 and 57 to open the campaign, Rozee inspired Port Adelaide’s round 5 comeback against Carlton after being thrown into the middle after halftime. A week later he had 31 disposals and eight clearances against West Coast. Rozee averaged 102 KFC SuperCoach points from round 5 onwards and showcased his points ceiling with scores of 153, 154 and 162 during that period. If he continues to play as a full-time midfielder (and why wouldn’t he?) a price based on an average of 93 is at least 10 points under where Rozee should be.
Tim Taranto (Richmond) $503,100 FWD-MID
As a Carlton supporter, I was initially a bit taken aback by one of my KFC SuperCoach favourites joining Richmond and bolstering the Tigers’ bid for a return to the top. Then Richmond started talking about using Taranto as a full-time midfielder and his two-way running. Frankly, I was sold. Taranto was one of the players most affected by Leon Cameron’s musical chairs and seemingly paid a price for his versatility and ability to have an impact inside 50. Of course, that’s good news for KFC SuperCoaches and he remains available as a FWD. But there’s no doubt it has affected Taranto’s scoring after he looked destined to hit uber premium status after averaging 102.4 in 2019. Taranto’s best season average since then has been 97.3, but he has never regularly played in his best position as a full-time midfielder. KFC SuperCoaches – and, OK, Richmond fans – should be excited about the potential for Taranto to launch back to a triple-figure average as a key member of the Punt Rd onball brigade.
Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) $506,500 RUC
Another underpriced option who comes with an asterisk. Playing as a sole ruckman, Marshall has the potential to put himself in the stratosphere of Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy’s best KFC SuperCoach seasons. Just look at round 20, 2022. Marshall amassed 35 hitouts, 30 disposals, seven tackles and took nine marks on his way to 173 KFC SuperCoach points against Hawthorn. The issue is a few weeks later he was back in the forward 50 while Tom Campbell took the centre bounces. That was under Brett Ratten, and Ross Lyon preferred to go with one ruckman and a versatile back-up (such as Jason Blake) in his last stint as St Kilda coach. Although that was a decade ago, KFC SuperCoaches can only hope he does something similar with Marshall. His 2022 average of 92 was Marshall’s lowest for four years and I am confident in predicting he will be a $600,000-plus player and the best-scoring ruck of 2023 if he plays as a solo ruckman in 15 or more games (as he should). Over to you, Ross.
Elliot Yeo (West Coast) $337,000 DEF
Seasoned KFC SuperCoaches will tell you picking players with an injury is asking for trouble – and it is. But every so often a bargain presents itself that might be too good to pass up (full pre-season pending). Yeo has been restricted to 27 matches in the past three years after averaging 107.9 and 107.6 KFC SuperCoach points in 2018 and 2019. He is priced at an average of about 62, which Yeo could eclipse in a half when he’s up and running. He’s still only 29 years of age, but there are warning signs when West Coast has already flagged Yeo will be managed through pre-season. He’s the sort of player you would want to watch twice and then assess how he’s tracking and jump on before a potential price rise. If he can get his body right, he’s good enough to make more than $200,000 and even be a potential season keeper in defence. But that’s a big if.
11 OVERPRICED PLAYERS
George Hewett $613,300 MID
Hewett’s price peaked at $576k in 2022 as he recorded his best season average (111.4). That mark was more than 22 points better than Hewett’s previous season best (88) as he flourished in a contested midfield role under Michael Voss. Can he replicate that type of scoring in 2023? He ticks a lot of boxes the KFC SuperCoach scorers are looking for. But there are two red flags which suggest there will be much better value picks in what is always a hotly-contested midfield pool. Hewett missed the last five rounds of the year due to injury and any further flare up would leave KFC SuperCoaches with a big midfield hole. He has also lost DEF status, a commodity which made him so valuable as a starting pick in 2022. Hard to justify paying more for a player than he’s ever been valued in his KFC SuperCoach career.
Lloyd Meek $431,100 RUC
This one is sure to cause some conjecture, as I’m sure there are KFC SuperCoaches out there who would suggest Meek is in fact undervalued – especially if he becomes Hawthorn’s No. 1 ruckman. The reality is the former Docker will be competing with Max Lynch and Ned Reeves to be Sam Mitchell’s go-to ruckman and after inheriting the No. 7 jumper, Reeves likely has the inside running. Let’s assume Meek plays in tandem with Reeves. He has considerable upside and scored at least 78 KFC SuperCoach points in each of his six appearances in 2022. The biggest issue will be whether he can keep Reeves and Lynch out of the team for a full season which, pardon the pun, seems a tall order. Playing as one of two ruckmen is going to severely limit his KFC SuperCoach potential.
Taylor Walker $499,200 FWD
Overpriced? Maybe. But it largely depends on your view of whether Walker can back up what was his best KFC SuperCoach season since 2012. Last season was only the second in Walker’s career when he has averaged 90 KFC SuperCoach points or better and history would suggests he is almost certain to be available for lower than his starting price at some stage in 2023. There were only two rounds in 2022 when Walker cost more than $499,200 and he never hit that price in 2021. If you’re starting Walker, you’re banking on him making a fast start to the season during a tough run against GWS, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Carlton to start the year. Hold off because you’re almost certain to be able to get him for less than $450,000 at some stage.
Jarrod Witts $605,100 RUC
Another player who fits into the George Hewett category. The Gold Coast ruckman averaged more than 10 points above his previous season-best in 2022, breaking the 100 KFC SuperCoach point barrier for the first time. It was a remarkable season as he returned from an ACL injury to be the best KFC SuperCoach ruckman of the year. Scoring history would suggest Witts regresses, although his scoring was largely based on sustainable figures such as contested possessions and hitouts to advantage. The make-up of Gold Coast’s forward line will be interesting. Ben King likely comes in for Levi Casboult, but if they play together it could release Mabior Chol to play more in the ruck, which could limit Witts’ scoring. There are enough question marks to at least be cautious.
Billy Frampton $408,800 DEF
Let’s take a look at Frampton’s season averages before being used as a defender in 2022 – 44, 43.5, 53.2 and 44.6. Playing in defence is undoubtedly a more KFC SuperCoach friendly role than as a key forward, which helped Frampton’s average lift to 82.3 in six games before being traded to Collingwood. He appears to have joined the Magpies as a key defensive reinforcement and if you’re willing to pay more than $400,000 for that in KFC SuperCoach, you must have a bigger budget than the rest of us.
Braydon Preuss $506,000 RUC
If you’re even entertaining riding the Braydon Preuss rollercoaster again, you’re a much braver KFC SuperCoach than our experts. Preuss was $204k to start last season, $303k in 2021 and $329k in 2020. He has never played more than four games in a row during his career through a combination of suspension, injury and selection. And really whether you somehow think $506k actually represents value, that should tell you all you need to know. Despite his high scoring ceiling, $506k won’t seem like a smart price if he ends up dropped, suspended or injured a few rounds into 2023.
Travis Boak $580,200 MID
We’ll admit this feels a bit harsh, but hear us out. Boak’s midfield time was on the wane in 2022 as Zak Butters and, in particular Connor Rozee, took on greater onball responsibility at Port Adelaide. Boak hasn’t averaged less than 105 in the past four seasons, but an analysis of his finish to 2022 suggests a changing role will almost certainly impact his scoring. The Power veteran scored only three tons and averaged 98 KFC SuperCoach points in the last nine rounds. That doesn’t sound like a dramatic fall, but after averaging 138 in the opening month it was a clear drop off. It’d be worth waiting to see if he gets FWD-MID status at some point, especially with Jason Horne-Francis now in the midfield mix too.
Tom Lynch $519,100 FWD
Let’s compare Lynch’s 2023 starting price to previous years. 2022: $381,300. 2021: $366,700. 2020: $388,800. 2019: $425,600. 2018: $467,600. The only other year he started with a price tag of more than $500,000 was 2017 when Lynch was $507,200 coming off a career-best KFC SuperCoach campaign. The main reason Lynch appears overpriced is the history of SuperCoach scoring from key forwards. They are the most volatile scorers in the game, often relying in big hauls of goals for points. No one is doubting Lynch’s quality, but he will almost certainly be available for $100,000 lower than his starting price at some point in 2023. That’s when you can start talking value.
Isaac Heeney $557,100 FWD
Oh, Isaac “more midfield time” Heeney. As it turns out, you don’t actually need to spend bulk time in midfield to score premium numbers. KFC SuperCoaches have been waiting for years for Heeney’s evolution into a full-time midfielder and dared to dream it would eventuate when Lance Franklin returned to the Sydney side last season. While Heeney spent more time in the middle, it was largely his impact forward of centre which led to a season headlined by 13 KFC SuperCoach hundreds. However, even during a run of seven successive tons to end the year, Heeney’s price never reached $550,000. Is he value? Probably not. Is he a bad selection? No.
Shannon Hurn $577,800 DEF
Maybe it’s that I was burned paying top dollar for Hurn, but consider this a word of warning. A few years ago I paid $562,200 for the Eagles veteran and after an early score of 152 his campaign turned into a disaster. Enough of my tale of woe. You want to know why he’s overpriced. Who wants to pay premium dollars for a player entering their final season, who could be managed and who hasn’t played 20 games in a season since 2018? It just screams of a selection asking for trouble, regardless of the fact there will be a stack of footy in West Coast’s back half again in 2023.
Alex Witherden $552,400 DEF
Paying more than $550,000 for a player not even guaranteed a game every week? It’s a big no from us. The scoring potential is there, but his role is monopolised when he plays alongside Shannon Hurn anyway. Hard pass.
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