KFC SuperCoach 2022: Best point of difference trade targets for round 19
See the numbers that make Rowan Marshall the biggest difference maker of the KFC SuperCoach season, and how to get him into your team. Plus Fantasy Freako’s trade tips.
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How good are DPP changes in KFC SuperCoach?
Position changes at rounds 6 and 12 made a huge impact on our teams, and one of the 10 changes in round 18 could be the difference between winning and losing KFC SuperCoach finals.
Rowan Marshall was updated from a RUC only to FWD/RUC after playing 36.1 per cent of the season as a forward for the Saints. That didn’t seem like a huge deal when he was averaging 88 points per game partnering with Paddy Ryder.
But news this week that Ryder is likely to miss the rest of the home-and-away season changes everything.
Marshall has played as the solo ruckman in five matches this year, and in those games he has scored 124, 67, 125, 92 and 156.
Overall without Ryder he averages 16.6 disposals (+2.1), 9.2 contested possessions (+1.4), 7 hitouts to advantage (+2.9), 4.2 clearances (+1.9), 3.2 score launches (+1) and 113 KFC SuperCoach points (+37).
And the best part he costs just $460,600 – and did we mention he’s DPP? St Kilda’s ruck run over the final five rounds is another big plus, facing West Coast this week without Nic Naitanui then Hawthorn, Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney.
Some (Tim) are prepared to use their final trade(s) this week to get Marshall into their team given his huge upside. Others (Al) are a little more conservative and would like to have at least two trades in the bank for the final four rounds.
But if you have the trades, are adventurous or already have strong bench cover, there’s no denying Marshall’s potential impact. So how could you get him?
1. DARCY CAMERON SWAP
Cameron has been one of the mid-price buys of the season, but his form has tapered a little in recent weeks and Brodie Grundy is available for selection after missing most of the season with a knee injury. Is the honeymoon over? When Grundy and Cameron played in the same team in the first six rounds, Cameron averaged 46.6 KFC SuperCoach points.
How Craig McRae fits them both into a winning team now (plus Mason Cox) is up in the air, but a straight swap will only cost you one trade and you’ll have $55,000 change. You could wait a week to see how Cameron goes against the Bombers but that gap will close dramatically. Cameron’s Break Even is 130 and Marshall’s is 103 so you should still be able to make the move, but if Marshall dominates against the Eagles it could start to get tight.
This move works if you have Cameron in the ruck or forward line.
2. HERE’S YOUR D6
The top five forwards in KFC SuperCoach this year are clear-cut and in most of the top-performing teams: Marcus Bontempelli, Josh Dunkley, Will Brodie, Luke Parker and Stephen Coniglio. Given the second-highest scorer, Tom Liberatore, is in just 7 per cent of teams, most sides have one other forward on field who could be hurting your overall scores (26 per cent of teams still have Nic Martin and others are relying on getting a decent score from a rookie).
Our D6 has arrived. Marshall is the perfect player to fill that last slot and can also provide cover for a ruck injury if you have a RUC/FWD like Brynn Teakle on your ruck bench.
If you can’t get him in one trade you could trade another rookie to Eagle Jai Culley ($102,400 MID/FWD), gain a DPP swing and use the money to turn a rookie into Marshall.
3. REPLACE PATRICK CRIPPS OR TOM GREEN
If you’ve got Patrick Cripps or Tom Green in your midfield, they are priority trade-out targets ahead of a player like Isaac Heeney in the forward line. Green could even be dropped this week after he had just 14 disposals and 49 KFC SuperCoach points last week.
With most forward lines stacked with DPP players like Bontempelli, Dunkley and Parker, this move is as simple as trading out Green or Cripps (or another underperforming midfielder), moving one of that trio into your midfield then bringing Marshall into your forward line. Simples.
4. JAYDEN SHORT OR JACK CRISP SWAP
You could pull the same trick with some extra DPP magic to offload a defender who is causing you grief, if you have a MID/DEF player in your midfield. You’ll need to switch them to the backline, bring a MID/FWD into your midfield and trade in Marshall.
This is likely the last week to pull off this move in one trade with Crisp and Short both priced just above Marshall at around $470k and falling.
5. TRADE TIM ENGLISH
This is a lot riskier given English’s big scores in the first half of the season but he’s looked a shadow of that player since returning from concussion. While he scraped together 97 points against Sydney he had just eight disposals and three marks against the Saints for 51 KFC SuperCoach points. Even if he gets going again in a week or two, that could be enough for Marshall to outscore him from here. One for the risk takers.
6. GET MARSHALL AS BENCH COVER
If you’re in the enviable position of having a cashed-up rookie like Sam De Koning ($377,700 DEF/FWD), Martin ($375,500 FWD/MID) or Paddy McCartin ($378,300 DEF/FWD) on your bench, you could use spare cash or a second trade (now we’re really talking luxury) to upgrade them to Marshall, giving you a seventh premium-scoring forward.
That would put your team in a powerful position with cover across the ruck and midfield lines using DPP for the final five rounds.
Champion Data KFC SuperCoach formguide
– Fantasy Freako
At the beginning of the season, our plan was to carry and play Nick Daicos for as long as he was scoring points and going up in price. Fundamentally, that is the name of the game. Keep rookies until they peak in price and then cash them in.
But Daicos could be an exception to that rule.
Round 5 came along and Daicos starred with 32 disposals and 125 points against West Coast. It was time to reassess his role in our team.
The scores kept ticking over during the next six weeks until he hit a little roadblock, scoring just 59 against Carlton in round 11. Craig McRae even suggested that Daicos could be rested as his training loads were being managed, which from a KFC SuperCoach point of view was an instigator for many jumping ship at this point.
If you offloaded Daicos after round 11 you would have missed his 113 and 112 points before Collingwood’s round 14 bye. But most who held him made the move when the Magpies had the week off.
Daicos’s output has reached a new level across the past three rounds – tallying 37, 21 and 40 disposals in these matches. In fact, on the weekend he became one of just 17 players since 1999 to have at least 40 disposals and kick three goals in a game, joining the likes of Gary Ablett, Dane Swan, and Nathan Buckley.
Since round 12 Daicos ranks fourth in the competition for disposals per game with 32, while also ranking second for uncontested possessions and equal-third for handball-receives.
Furthermore, no player has had more uncontested possessions than Daicos after 17 career matches, while his disposals are the second-most of anyone behind only Toby Greene at this point of his career.
Personally speaking, as I planned my trades last week, I made a point of leaving enough money in the bank to turn Daicos into Tom Stewart after he served his four-game ban. But is that even an option now? As mad as it sounds, keeping Daicos for the remainder of the season is something we did not envisage at the start of the year.
Let us see how the next round plays out before making a call.
ROOKIE WATCH
SuperCoaches flocked to Jai Culley last round as coverage for the injured Clayton Oliver, and the youngster did not disappoint, having 12 disposals and 11 tackles on his way to a solid 90 points. With the bonus of DPP status, he is the standout option at the basement low price ahead of round 19.
Ashley Johnson (67 points) and Tyler Sonsie (59) also made their AFL debut last week and are options worth considering. Sonsie had 19 disposals for the match, of which 16 were effective, also having 379 metres gained, 13 uncontested possessions, four clearances, four inside-50s and one score assist. He was a shining light for the Tigers.
But Noah Cumberland is the pick of the week after scoring 101 points in the loss to North Melbourne, having 14 disposals, nine contested possessions, four tackles, three goals and one score assist. He was also involved in 11 scoring chains – the second-most of any Tiger behind Jack Riewoldt (12).
Cumberland has had 13 shots at goal across the last two rounds which ranks No.1 at the club – scoring 5.7 while having one missed shot at goal.
Jase Burgoyne was hot property ahead of his third match of the season, but he was dropped from the side and was the medical substitute instead. After the defeat to the Demons, there is every chance that he earns a reprieve and once again enters our thoughts ahead of the next round.
Rookies shouldn’t be the focus at this stage of the season, but they’re more than handy, especially with Oliver and Josh Kelly missing in consecutive weeks.
As always, best of luck for the round ahead and trade wisely!
Trade guide: Time to bite bullet on Cripps?
– Al Paton and Tim Michell
What do we do with Patrick Cripps?
After a blazing start to the season the Blues’ co-captain has become the lowest-scoring premium midfielder for many KFC SuperCoach teams.
The numbers are stark. To round 8 Cripps averaged 125.8 points per game – and that included a score of 38 when he hurt his hamstring early against Gold Coast.
That was his only score under 119 to that point. Since then he has reached that mark once. His last 100-plus score was back in round 13 and his five-round average of 89.6 ranks 63rd of midfielders in KFC SuperCoach.
One silver lining is most players are in the same situation – Cripps is the sixth-most owned player in the game, featuring in 59 per cent of teams. But that also presents an opportunity. Swap Cripps for a red-hot midfielder and you could pick up 30-plus points a week on the rest of the competition for the final five rounds.
Cripps’ price has fallen to $500,800 – the cheapest he’s been since round 2 – so unless you have cash in the bank or are prepared to use a second trade, options are limited.
Jai Simpkin ($472,700) hasn’t scored below 90 in his past five games, including 105 and 119 in his past two, while Tim Taranto ($462,200) offers MID/FWD cover and has scored 111, 109 and 85 in his past three.
If you have four or more trades, you could use one to downgrade any bench player worth $200,000 or more to a dirt cheap rookie like Josh Carmichael ($102,400 FWD/MID) or Jai Culley ($102,400 FWD/MID), opening up a full board of players to pick from to replace Cripps.
Judging on pure scoring ability, Rory Laird has to be at the top of the shopping list. The only problem is he costs $676,500. Scroll down for more on why that could be a brilliant investment, and more possible Cripps replacements.
Or you could trade him out, move a DPP player like Josh Dunkley or Luke Parker from the forward line to the midfield and bring in Rowan Marshall who will likely be St Kilda’s No.1 ruckman for the rest of the season after an injury to Paddy Ryder.
But if you can afford to use a trade, it’s hard to see trading Cripps being a losing move. Who would have thought we would be saying that eight weeks ago?
11 PODS WHO CAN WIN YOU A SUPERCOACH FINAL
There are just five rounds to play until the Holy Grail of fantasy footy is held aloft.
And while the race for the top spots in the overall rankings are heating up, most players will be turning their attention to their private leagues where there is one home-and-away match remaining before the four-week finals series kicks off in round 20.
Watching head-to-head match-ups reveals many teams are looking increasingly similar, with a small number of players deciding victory or defeat.
That means you can get a big advantage by grabbing an in-form player who isn’t in a lot of KFC SuperCoach teams.
You will need a truckload of cash as well as a valuable trade (or two) to snare super POD Rory Laird, who remains in fewer than one in five teams despite being one of the best scorers in the game.
But dig a bit deeper and there are more gems to be found who won’t break the bank.
Here are 11 point of difference guns who can set your team apart for the run home.
Rory Laird $676,500 MID
Ownership: 15 per cent
Almost 1400 coaches bit the bullet and traded Clayton Oliver to Rory Laird before round 18, and it could be a KFC SuperCoach-winning move. Laird broke the AFL tackle record with 20 against Collingwood, to go with 31 disposals and nine clearances for a monster return of 154 points – his second 150-plus score in the past month, when he is averaging 141.3. Those are Oliver-like numbers than can doom you if you come up against an opponent with him in a knockout KFC SuperCoach final. He’s also arguably the safest captain option in the AFL with just one score below 114 since round 4 (and that was a 105).
Tom Liberatore $604,300 FWD/MID
Ownership: 7 per cent
The tough Bulldog recorded his seventh consecutive KFC SuperCoach ton against St Kilda, amassing 131 points. Liberatore has largely flown under the radar as KFC SuperCoaches focused on getting his teammates Marcus Bontempelli and Tim English into their sides. As of Round 18 he only featured in 7.4 per cent of teams, making him one of the best unique options available. Libba has only failed to hit triple figures once since round 8 and even that was a score of 92. In nine games against Western Bulldogs’ next opponent Melbourne he averages 120 KFC SuperCoach points. Don’t stress about paying almost $600k, he’s worth it.
Todd Goldstein $521,900 RUC/FWD
Ownership: 7 per cent
How many forwards have put up these numbers over the past month: 120, 120, 135? Goldy’s one blemish was a 55 against the Cats, but Tristan Xerri did most of the ruckwork that day and he’s out injured for the rest of the season. The 34-year-old’s expert craft was on full display when he set up Cam Zurhaar for the matchwinner on Saturday with a brilliant tap from a boundary throw-in. And as a bonus he provides cover in case of a ruck injury thanks to his dual-position status.
Chad Warner $544,600 MID
Ownership: 1 per cent
Some KFC SuperCoaches have already heralded the rising Swan a must-have player for 2023. But, why not get on well before the pack? Warner is one of the form players in the league over the past month and has a three-round average of 137. Warner’s 35-disposal game against Fremantle was a season high. Three weeks ago, his mammoth score against Essendon was thanks to 25 disposals and three goals. Warner’s ability to combine contested ball with an attacking threat are why so many are bullish about him making the jump to become an elite KFC SuperCoach midfielder. He would be an almighty point of different pick, only featuring in 2690 teams as of Round 18. Regardless of whether you jump on, make sure he’s on your watch list for next year.
Jack Steele $562,200 MID
Ownership: 10 per cent
We’ve been waiting for the Saints captain to explode as a KFC SuperCoach scorer and Friday night might have lit the fuse, with his 133 points against the Bulldogs his best score since round 6. Steele has scored tons in his four matches since returning from injury, tallying 35 tackless in that time, and he hasn’t had fewer than 23 disposals in any match this season. The Saints are still in the finals race, so don’t expect him to slack off any time soon. Despite a modest price rise this week he is still more than $123k cheaper than his starting price.
Bailey Smith $532,000 FWD/MID
Ownership: 3 per cent
Smith returned from suspension with a typically-prolific performance, tallying 29 disposals and 91 KFC SuperCoach points against St Kilda. A kicking efficiency of only 50 per cent cost Smith a Round 18 ton and his season efficiency of about 54 per cent is the only knock on his KFC SuperCoach scoring. Smith is set to be available for more than $50k less than Liberatore which might force him into the thinking of teams with less cash reserves. He was set to be one of the most-popular mid-season additions in KFC SuperCoach before his suspension for headbutting Zach Tuohy. Smith was in less than 4 per cent of teams in Round 18 and with a point to prove, he could be in for a monster finish to the season. He scored 139 against the Demons in Round 1, Western Bulldogs’ next opponent. Take advantage of the fact many others have burned through most of their trades by capitalising on Smith’s return.
Dylan Moore $513,500 FWD
Ownership: 3 per cent
Another Sam Mitchell magnet move which has worked wonders. Moore has become a key cog of the Hawthorn midfield in the past four rounds and his scoring has spiked as a result. Moore has scored 112, 90, 135 and 113 in his last four matches, recording 29 and 25 disposals in the past two weeks against Adelaide and West Coast. Moore’s ability to swing forward and hit the scoreboard makes him such a dangerous option for Mitchell to deploy. Perhaps most impressively against the Eagles, he had seven clearances to back up a game where he managed five clearances from 15 centre bounce attendances against Adelaide. The story goes that Moore was playing for his career in the last round of 2020 when he starred against Gold Coast. Less than two years later he’s a bona fide star and someone we’re likely to be talking about a lot heading into 2023. He performs with little fanfare and is still in less than 3 per cent of sides.
Luke Davies-Uniacke $590,300 MID
Ownership: 1 per cent
He’s in fewer than 1000 teams, but the Kangaroos clearance machine has the fifth-best five-round average in KFC SuperCoach - ahead of Andrew Brayshaw, Jack Macrae and Zach Merrett. His 110 against the Tigers was his fifth ton in his past six matches, with that run including a 149, 138 and 124. North is suddenly in form and pinching another win before the end of the season is a real possibility with matches to come against Hawthorn, Essendon, Adelaide and Gold Coast.
Shannon Hurn $562,100 DEF
Ownership: 1 per cent
The veteran Eagle’s price got as low as $444k after Round 7, when he scored his second hundred of the season against Richmond. Since then his value has jumped by more than $110k as a result of seven triple-figure totals in eight matches – the other score was 99. The Eagles defence comes under pressure most weeks which gives Hurn the chance to combine his two great skills – intercept possessions and elite kicking. He had another nine marks to go with 27 disposals against Hawthorn, of which 23 were kicks. Hurn also had 27 kicks out of 28 disposals against Carlton in round 17. That’s 50 kicks in two weeks from 55 disposals and we know the KFC SuperCoach scorers love elite kicks. Hurn featured in fewer than 1000 teams in Round 18.
Zach Merrett $615,500 MID
Ownership: 8 per cent
Merrett might not end the season with an average as high as, say, Jack Macrae, but all we care about now is banking the most points over the next five weeks. And on current form, Merrett is as hot as they come, banking 136 KFC SuperCoach points against the Suns on Sunday to back up his 140 and 147 the previous two weeks. The Bombers playmaker had 36 disposals at 86 per cent efficiency as he carved up the Suns midfield, and this is no fluke. Merrett has averaged 115-plus the past two seasons and at least 100 points a game every season since 2016. And if we’re talking about hot PODs, his teammate Mason Redman (in 1 per cent of teams) piled on 152 points on Sunday for a six-round average of 119.5.
Tom Stewart $562,400 DEF
Ownership: 11 per cent
Stewart won’t play next week, so don’t rush to bring him in now. But he’ll be available in round 20 and could be the POD of the KFC SuperCoach finals given his scoring power in defence. In two of his past three non-injury affected games, Stewart scored 174 and 161 KFC SuperCoach points. Earlier in the year he posted 187 against the Dockers, and he has had 40 disposals twice in a game this year. The Cats finish their season with matches against the Bulldogs (home), St Kilda (home), Gold Coast (away) and West Coast (home). If you can somehow find the cash to swap a player like Jack Crisp or Jayden Short to Stewart, it could pay off massively. Keep him in your thoughts for next week.
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