KFC SuperCoach 2021: Ultimate Round 5 trade guide
Almost 50,000 KFC SuperCoach teams have a big decision to make with Caleb Daniel. We look at the case for and against trading plus the Round 5 rookie report.
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Injuries, suspension and, now, high rookie breakevens - there is plenty of reason to trade in KFC SuperCoach this week.
The Phantom and Dan Batten explore all the trade thoughts, options and dilemmas ahead of Round 5.
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WHAT TO DO WITH CALEB?
On Saturday in Ballarat, Bulldogs star Caleb Daniel had a nightmare game. There’s no sugar coating it. He had just eight disposals on his way to 19 KFC SuperCoach points. And he threw Lion Jarrod Berry into the ground with a tackle deemed dangerous by the MRO, resulted in a one-match ban.
SCROLL DOWN FOR THE ROUND 5 ROOKIE REPORT
But he’s still a star, and, while he struggled against the Eagles in Round 2, Daniel’s two other scores this year are 107 and 96. The skilful defender failed to reach 90 on five occasions last year, and still finished with an average of 101.
So what should 49,480 KFC SuperCoaches do with Daniel?
Well, make that 43,370 – 12 per cent of owners have already traded him out – or at least played around to see what they can get – as of Monday morning.
WHY YOU SHOULD HOLD
As mentioned above, he’s still a star. And Daniel is unlikely to dish up a score like that again this season. Sure, there are some new options who are in serious form but, forget what has happened, Daniel is still a top-eight chance from this point, especially given the Bulldogs’ possession dominance.
Trading to, say, Jordan Ridley, who posted a fourth consecutive KFC SuperCoach ton – in a streak which doesn’t look like ending given his role and scoring avenues – is very tempting. But the move will cost you more than $150k and it doesn’t do anything to address the volatile on-field rookie situation. You would be using a trade which could help you start upgrading faster.
Not many KFC SuperCoaches will be able to get from a cash cow to Ridley yet but is having Daniel on field really more concerning than playing a another rookie?
WHY YOU SHOULD TRADE
If Danie’s one-game ban leaves you with a zero in defence, then the move makes sense. You get a Ridley, or a Jayden Short, who, from what we’ve seen so far, are going to outscore Daniel anyway.
Or there’s the reason around money. Trading Daniel, before his price falls closer to $400k, to Hawk Changkuoth Jiath, who could reach $500k soon after three consecutive KFC SuperCoach tons, is also worth considering. The initial trade will also make you close to $70k.
And maybe Daniel, who is also being overlooked for kick-in duties, is the real victim of the jam-packed Bulldogs midfield, which is taking a big chunk of the KFC SuperCoach points on offer.
His season stats are skewed now, as a result of the Round 4 performance, but the 24-year-old still recorded disposal tallies of 28, 26 and 30 in the opening three rounds. And, while he was as efficient as ever, hitting the target with 71 of his 84 touches, his 10 total contested possessions played a big part in two sub-100 scores.
Phantom’s Verdict:HOLD.I’ll say it again, 30 trades isn’t a lot. I’d be keeping Daniel, and starting the upgrade process around him. Once you’ve got all the inconsistent rookies off the field, then reassess his form. In the long run, I don’t think you will be disappointed with Caleb Daniel at D5 or D6. Trading Lachie Jones in for a non-playing rookie is the way I’d cover the zero, too.
Dan Batten’s verdict: TRADE. Conditions did not suit the pinpoint Bulldog on a cold and rainy day in Ballarat, but he looks to have lost the kick-in duties – which gave him a welcome boost in previous seasons – with the emphasis on distance, rather than efficiency due to the new rules. The scoring make-up of the Bulldogs with the big three, and now Adam Treloar, also means there are less points up for grabs for Daniel, and the one-week suspension gives owners the perfect excuse to trade. However, you have been hot on the trade trigger over the first four rounds, you probably can’t afford to waste another on a sideways move.
IS THIS TREND YOUR FRIEND?
Changkuoth Jiath $399,600, Def
Scores: 69, 119, 118, 109
Breakeven: 7
It appears Jiath is more than a trend. Despite taking just one in the opening round, the 21-year-old ranks third in the competition for intercept marks after recording a game-high seven against the Dockers on Sunday. As a defender, Jiath also rates elite for disposals (23.5), effective disposals (19.5), inside-50s (3.3), effective kicks (11.3) and total marks (8.5). He not only wins the ball back off the opposition, Jiath is trusted with ball in hand going back the other way. At $399k ahead of Round 5, it’s not too late, either, given he must now be in the top-eight conversation.
Jarman Impey $365,200, Fwd
Scores:64, 123, 108, 112
Breakeven: -6
It’s a similar story for teammate Impey. Like Jiath, the Hawks like to get the ball in his hands, with the 25-year-old winning 20 disposals or more in every match this season. Impey makes good decisions and uses it well, too, hitting the target with 77 of his 94 touches. He doesn’t win as much ball in the air as Jiath, but he’s the key attacking man for the Hawks in the back-half, rating elite for rebound-50s and score involvements this season. And, in a very shallow premium forward pool, he might be an ever better chance to finish among the top-scorers in his position.
Jack Ziebell $400,800, Fwd
Scores: 113, 72, 155, 107
Breakeven: -28
If you didn’t start with Ziebell, you probably should’ve traded him in last week. But, given the high chance he also finishes among the top-scorers in the forward line – based on what we’ve seen in the opening round rounds – and his Round 5 breakeven of -28, there’s still time. Of all players to have played more than two games, Ziebell ranks seventh in the competition for rebound-50s and 10th for effective disposals and metres gained. Regardless of what some say about his role, it’s, arguably, the most KFC SuperCoach friendly in the game.
Taylor Walker $468,700, Fwd
Scores: 146, 143, 130, 106
Breakeven: 38
Non-owners turned off when Walker had two goals in the opening 90 seconds of Sunday’s game against North. Kangaroos defender Ben McKay held his own after that, though, with Walker booting just one more for the match. But his defensive pressure and contested marking – often further up the ground – was again a highlight, helping the former Crows skipper to a fourth KFC SuperCoach ton for the year. At $468k, you may have missed the boat, though, given Adelaide’s draw turns after the Round 7 fixture against the Giants with Port, West Coast, Melbourne and Richmond to follow.
INJURY REPLACEMENTS
More than 24,000 KFC SuperCoaches will be looking for a Isaac Heeney ($448,300, Fwd) replacement after the star Swan broke his hand in Friday night’s win over the Bombers. Another 22,000 will need to trade Power young gun Zak Butters ($501,200) who, after a remarkable first half against the Tigers, suffered an ankle syndesmosis injury. Timelines are yet to be confirmed but both are likely to spend an extended period on the sidelines.
Impey, Ziebell and Walker should all be considered, even Jiath if you can use DPP, Impey and Jiath, especially, will leave you with considerable cash in hand. But here are a number of other options.
Josh Dunkley ($599,500, Fwd-Mid)
If you are still without Dunkley – and there are some, given the star Dog is in less than half of all KFC SuperCoach teams – it must be hurting. He’s gone 113, 132, 132 and 117 in the opening four rounds. There’s no reason to be concerned about Luke Beveridge’s midfield mix any more, not when it comes to Dunkley anyway.
Toby Greene ($489,100, Fwd)
With Greene playing predominantly as a forward, there will be the odd low score, which scared many off over summer. But after back-to-back bags of five goals – and scores of 117 and 120 – and the current state of the KFC SuperCoach forwards, the Giants gun is a good buy at less than $500k this round.
Adam Cerra ($494,700, Mid)
The young Fremantle midfield was convincingly beaten by the Blues in Round 3. It resulted in a 56-point score from Cerra. But in the other three matches this year, the 21-year-old, who averaged 101 points per game from Round 9 onwards last year, has scored 120 points or more. There are set to be a number of fallen premiums ripe for the picking over the next month, but Cerra, who is priced right in between Heeney and Butters – albeit in the midfield – could be a nice point-of-difference, given he’s in less than 6000 teams.
Or wait for…
Patrick Dangerfield ($611,900 Fwd-Mid)
Dangerfield is back this weekend – and the Cats need him. But after a Round 1 score of 92, his price could – hopefully – fall in two weeks’ time. The same can be said for St Kilda big man Rowan Marshall ($557,200 Fwd-Ruck), who scored just 50 in his return from injury. In the midfield, Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver put somewhat of a halt to his price fall with 130 points against the Cats. But he’s down to $612k and faces another big breakeven of 161 this week, meaning there’s a chance he’ll be available for less than $600k ahead of Round 6.
THE ROOKIE REPORT
Alec Waterman (Ess) $102,400, FWD BE: -77
Average: 68.5
Trade in for: Miles Bergman, Tyler Brockman
Heath Chapman (Frem) $207,200, DEF BE: -56
Average: 73
Trade in for: Jacob Koschitzke, Harry Sharp
KFC SuperCoaches flocked to Waterman in the pre-season after winning a spot on Essendon’s list with a four-goal haul against Carlton, but he was forced to bide his time before earning a senior berth in Round 3.
Following his bright start to his career at Windy Hill - booting four goals in two matches and averaging 68.5 KFC SuperCoach points - he is back on our radar, and boasts the lowest break even of any player ahead of Round 5.
Essendon’s injury crisis means the 24-year-old should hold his place for long enough to make us cash, and his rock-bottom price tag is a bonus.
KFC SuperCoach Plus predicts the forward to jump almost $65,000 in value this week.
We shouldn’t expect him to kick a couple of goals every game in a weakened Bombers side, but, as a well-built mature ager, he should be more reliable than the average rookie small forward.
If you missed out on him last week, it is not too late to buy Chapman, despite the Dockers defender climbing nearly $60,000.
The first-round draftee impressed with his trademark intercepting, winning seven possessions off the opposition to go with 18 disposals, a goal and 91 points against Hawthorn, backing up his 86-point total the previous week.
With these two promising scores in his rolling average, Chapman has a break even of -56 and has inviting fixtures against Adelaide and North Melbourne over the next fortnight.
A couple more scores of this magnitude will see him rise above $300,000 and beyond, helping alleviate our cash generation problems in defence.
CONSIDER
Lachie Jones (PA) $139,900, DEF
Average: 61
Chris Burgess $210,000, DEF BE: -17
Average: 70
Mitch Lewis (Haw) $199,500, FWD BE: -41
Round 4 Score: 75
PASS
Luke Parks (Carl) $102,400, DEF BE: -14
TO WATCH
Beau McCreery (Coll) $117,300, FWD
Average: 56 (one game)
Jones was the talk of the Alberton crowd on Friday night, and not just because of his flowing mullet.
The bullocking young defender looked like he belonged at the top level, finishing with 17 disposals, eight intercept possessions and 61 points on debut against the reigning premiers.
It should come as no surprise, given he played a full season of senior footy last year in the SANFL and the fact he is built like a 25-year-old.
However, Port Adelaide are well stocked for small defenders so it may be best to wait a week if you can, but pulling the trigger early shouldn’t backfire based on Friday night’s evidence.
Burgess rucked in tandem with new first-choice Suns ruckman Caleb Graham, who finished with just four disposals along with 13 hitouts – compared to Marc Pittonet’s 56.
Burgess tallied 10 disposals, nine contested possessions, five hitouts, a goal and 54 points but was monstered at ruck contests.
Coming up against daunting Dogs duo Stefan Martin and Tim English in Round 5, the Suns may look to change up their ruck outfit, so watch for teams before taking the punt.
Back-up ruckman Zac Smith is a few weeks away, so he could prove to be a solid money-maker until then, but don’t force a trade just to get Burgess.
Lewis is an interesting proposition up forward with a low breakeven after back-to-back scores in the 70s.
As we have seen with Jacob Koschitzke, Hawthorn’s key-forwards may struggle at times, but Lewis is worth keeping in mind after averaging 67 points per game as a cheapie in 2019.
Meanwhile, expect Parks’s stay in the Carlton side to be a short one after managing just three touches and 23 points.
CHOPPING BLOCK?
Braeden Campbell (Syd) $258,100, FWD/MID BE: 71
James Jordon (Melb) $205,100, MID BE: 47
Tom Highmore (StK) $117,300, DEF BE: -68
Miles Bergman (PA) $123,900, FWD BE: -17
Jacob Koschitzke (Haw) $141,700, DEF BE: 23
Tyler Brockman (Haw) $172,700, FWD/MID BE: 28
The golden rookie rule in KFC SuperCoach is to trade out cheapies once their break even passes their average, as it has with Campbell.
However, coaches are probably best served to hold the smooth-moving Swan, with his meagre score of 29 dropping out of his rolling average after Round 5.
Campbell posted a pre-season score in the 80s against his upcoming opponent GWS, and he looms as the next best on-field option up forward after teammate Chad Warner.
Jordon is a watch-this-space after recording just four disposals, five tackles and 24 points from 56 per cent gametime against Geelong and may find it difficult to hold his spot, despite a glittering first two games.
Highmore and Bergman sat out their second straight week on the sidelines, and Highmore. in particular. looks to be a fair way off, not even named as an emergency in St Kilda’s breakthrough win over West Coast.
His breakeven sits at -68, though, and is just one game off a big price rise, which means you should hold.
For Bergman, Koschitzke (managed for Round 4) and Brockman (averaging 43) on the other hand, trading to a bubble boy shouldn’t hurt you a great deal – even if all three are playing.
The positive of bringing in a player like Waterman far outweighs the negative of missing out on some small price rises.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2021: Ultimate Round 5 trade guide
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