KFC SuperCoach 2021: The SuperCoach Investor and The Phantom answers the burning questions ahead of Round 14
Round 14 calls for creative thinking and KFC SuperCoach Investor Daniel Begala has a bold plan to avoid this week’s carnage. Plus The Phantom’s burning questions.
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In 2007 stockmarkets were hit by the Global Financial Crisis, or GFC.
Round 14 is the KFC — the KFC SuperCoach Financial Crisis.
Teams across the country have been decimated with many of the game’s finest assets on the bye.
Our resident investment expert, Daniel Begala, shares his wisdom he acquired while studying entry-level finance in the peak of the 2007 GFC.
Scroll down to see The Phantom’s burning questions
THE BIG QUESTION: RANKINGS OR LEAGUE?
If you’re chasing rankings and entrenched in the pointy end of the peloton, there’s certainly merit in trading aggressively.
This is your “alpha”, or edge against the market.
Alternatively, if you’re focus is league immortality, there’s definitely rationale in “tanking” this week and preserving your trades until the business end of proceedings, with SuperCoach finals commencing in Round 20 — a whole six weeks away.
The KFC SuperCoach Investor is a rankings purist and generally a high rank goes hand in hand with a strong performance in leagues.
The caveat to this, however, is that a coach whose mindset has been fixated on rankings is at their most vulnerable at the business end of the season when there’s a scarcity of trades and the injury curse strikes.
It’s one of the most difficult decisions you’ll make in FY21, but it’s now time – like the Hawks in 2004 – to put a line in the sand and decide.
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If you’re chasing league success, the best advice I can give is to enjoy a stress-free weekend and recharge your batteries in preparation for a glorious tilt towards the finals.
If rankings are you priority, dust off that share-trading platform and plot some season-defining moves.
It’s going to feel uncomfortable, so let’s see how The KFC SuperCoach Investor plans to approach the carnage that is Round 14.
MINI UPGRADES
Our portfolios are laden with blue dots, and it’s caught even those most pragmatic and astute investors off guard ... myself included.
At best, I will be entering the round with 14-15 players who can score points during the KFC SuperCoach Financial Crisis (“KFC”).
This brings me to the strategy we’ve conceived at The Begala Brigade: “The Mini Upgrade”.
What’s a mini upgrade? It looks like a sideways trade, but with enhanced dividend yields.
I will be making some substantial calls on blue chip stocks who have been subjected to the Round 14 trading halt.
The season-defining moves are indicatively flagged as follows:
Caleb Poulter ($313K MID/FWD) to Jai Newcombe ($102K MID)
Andy Brayshaw ($507K MID) to Zach Merrett ($564K MID)
Isaac Heeney ($402K FWD) to Dale/Hawkins/Dangerfield
The first trade, Poulter to Newcombe, is purely designed to create liquidity, facilitate the “mini” upgrades and introduce another scoring asset (Newcombe) to the portfolio.
Digging further into the “mini” upgrades, here is what the numbers look like:
Brayshaw (Average: 101) to Merrett (Average: 111) = +10 KFC SuperCoach
Heeney (Average: 76) to Dale (Average: 97) = +19 KFC SuperCoach
Assuming both additional premiums score on par with their averages in Round 14, I will have an injection of 208 KFC SuperCoach points immediately.
And the benefit grows over the final nine post-bye rounds.
If all four players mentioned above maintain similar averages, it will mean 29 extra points per week for nine weeks
Cumulatively, that’s an additional 469 KFC SuperCoach points in the kitty. Did someone say KFC?
You’re not throwing trades to the wind, but, instead, reinforcing your team with higher quality assets with improved dividend yields and scoring potential.
The kicker, though, is the immediate injection or “free kick” of KFC SuperCoach points that you’ll benefit from in Round 14 that will substantially move the dial on your rankings pursuit.
Are you a passive investor, or, active investor looking to take control in Round 14?
I’ll leave that decision to you.
THE PHANTOM ANSWERS THIS WEEK’S BURNING QUESTIONS
The moment has arrived.
The dreaded Round 14 bye is here – and it’s going to cause KFC SuperCoaches a lot of problems.
But, like we discussed here last week, it’s all about balance.
So we shouldn’t burn all our trades this week to get 18 players?
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer.
If using four trades helps you get close to 18, while at the same time moving you closer to a complete team with – hopefully – a few trades remaining, go for it.
If you’re not actually adding to your premium count, I’d think twice.
In terms of your overall tally in Round 14, there’s a chance an extra premium contributes in a similar way to what two extra rookies will at the bottom-end. And that premium is definitely better long-term, too.
Don’t forget this round, but balance your thinking. There are still nine more matches to go after the byes are over.
But I’m only fielding 15?
Well, it’s probably reassuring to know you won’t be alone. I put the question out to my Twitter friends on Monday - see below.
1990 for me in KFC #SuperCoach this week - big scores from Kelly and Hall helped. Another reasonable climb. How did you go?
— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) June 14, 2021
Early look - how many players are you looking at fielding in Round 14?
What about sideways trading my premiums, Phantom?
Does an isolated sideways trade improve your premium count? Maybe for the round, but not for the year. And you’ll have one less trade improve that count.
But, given the lack of rookie options this week, ‘downgrading’ a premium is something many KFC SuperCoaches will consider.
And they should.
Let’s use Clayton Oliver ($668,000) as an example – hi Tim Michell.
If you believe, say, Lachie Neale ($575,000), Zach Merrett ($563,900) or Sam Walsh ($559,500) can average similar to Oliver in the run home, then, given the star Demon will play one less game, you’re likely to come out in front in total points.
And, the kicker, make $100k in the process – which could be the difference between another big upgrade this round.
TRADE GUIDE: THE PLAYERS TO HELP YOU SURVIVE ROUND 14
If you’ve got another spot in the midfield, it’s there where you could think about bringing Oliver back in – not for his replacement.
With a breakeven of 199, Oliver will still lose another $30k off his price tag with a 130-point score in Round 15.
If he repeats either of his past two performance – 94 and 108 – however, his price should plummet below $600k.
And, with Matt de Boer looming in Round 16, there’s a chance.
The Giants tagger restricted Oliver to 67 points in Round 3 – the only non-three-figure score in his opening 11 matches.
This is starting to sound pretty enticing, but you need to put the money to good use and improve you premium count in the process.
If you’re well into single digit trades already, it should probably be out of the picture for you.
But I know you, and I know you’re thinking about it.
Clarry to Neale? #supercoach ðŸ˜
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) June 15, 2021
I don’t have Oliver, can I trade Dayne Zorko instead?
KFC SuperCoach Forwards Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Hawkins, Aaron Hall, Bailey Dale, and the like, are all too expensive to make the trade worthwhile.
It may give you an extra playing premium, but the money you make is unlikely to help you add another.
Bomber Kyle Langford ($474,000) or Giant Toby Greene ($455,700) are the ones that stand out.
But, despite Langford’s three consecutive KFC SuperCoach tons in an increased midfield role - and the fact I like him as value premium option on his own - can you be sure he goes close to matching Zorko’s scoring over the next 10 weeks?
No. Not even with the extra game.
That’s probably your answer.
What about Brodie Grundy to Todd Goldstein?
Yes, he scored 126 on Sunday and 150 against the Hawks in Round 9 but Goldstein has also posted four scores of 82 or less in the past nine matches.
It’s a no from me.
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Well, what downgrade options do I have?
If you didn’t jump on before his remarkable debut, which saw the mid-season draftee record 14 tackles – the most of any first-gamer ever – Hawk Jai Newcombe ($102k MID) is the clear No. 1.
Unfortunately, at this stage, though, there is no No. 2.
If Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson does pull a bit of a surprise by dumping last week’s star – and late inclusion – Jon Ceglar for Ned Reeves, then the $123k ruckman comes right back into the picture.
Sure, Matt Flynn may lead the Giants in the ruck if Shane Mumford is suspended but so would Reeves, and that trade will give you the cash to improve your team elsewhere.
Please, Clarko.
If you are one of the few KFC SuperCoaches who already has 18 players, or more, this round, then you could consider going early on young Eagle Luke Edwards ($117k MID), who finished with 27 disposals and 96 points in his second game.
Otherwise, wait and hope for a Thursday night miracle like the rest of us.
Which premiums should we be targeting?
Marcus Bontempelli is back in action but can you really afford the $680k price tag?
And, even if you can, is it the best way to use your money?
He still may outscore the next group of players I’m going to mention but, if the money saved is put to good use elsewhere, you might be better off for overall points.
Sure, if you have great bench cover, a few trades left, and you’re one premium off a complete team, spend away.
But most of you are still likely to be a couple of upgrades away from a full-premium side. And going with Bontempelli now could stall that process for another few weeks.
Along with those mentioned above – Neale, Merrett and Walsh – there’s also Giant Josh Kelly ($577k), who has now posted six consecutive KFC SuperCoach tons and is fresh off a huge 147-point performance against North Melbourne.
And, despite dropping below three figures twice, Hawk Tom Mitchell ($559,000) boasts a five-round average of 117, thanks to big scores of 147, 142 and 134.
In the forward line, Hall again reaffirmed that injury is just about the only thing that could stop him this year - not even de Boer could.
So, while I said I don’t mind Langford, I’d be spending the money on Hall if you have it.
So is it too early for Patrick Dangerfield?
This is a little different.
For starters, $550k is great buying for Dangerfield, regardless of the year he’s had to date.
And I saw enough in the first quarter last week – six disposals, all effective, four contested possessions, three clearances, two inside-50s, one goal assist and 35 KFC SuperCoach points – to predict a big return to form against the Bulldogs on Friday night.
He slowed a little after that and made a number of errors, finishing with seven clangers.
But he’ll be better for the run, and his preparation at home will be normal - he won’t be sleeping under a table at Adelaide Oval in the build-up.
If you can’t tell, I am jumping on this week.
If it costs me $40k – which it could given his breakeven of 191 – then so be it, the big boost points-wise I’m tipping will be worth it.
But, Jarman Impey and Tom Green aside – who I may deal with down the track – Dangerfield will complete my team.
If you are a little bit further away, with dwindling trades, that $40k – or more - may help you.
Just on Impey, is he still a keeper?
I do have some concerns.
Will Day is back now, Jack Scrimshaw is playing well and CJ’s early-season form returned after the week off.
Can they all score well in the same defence?
Impey’s 51-point tally against the Swans was his lowest for the year, and followed a score 62 the previous game.
But I want to see how it plays out over the next few weeks first, he’s still a luxury upgrade at this point. Complete your team first.
What about Isaac Heeney?
You got yourself into this mess, not me.
In all seriousness, the week off could do him good and the star Swan may come out firing against the Power.
But he won’t be there this round so, if you need the number, there’s enough to suggest the inconsistency – and sore ankle – may remain.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2021: The SuperCoach Investor and The Phantom answers the burning questions ahead of Round 14
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