KFC SuperCoach 2020: Dan Houston to go back into defence as centre bounce numbers reveal hidden gems, trade targets and big concerns
Ollie Wines is in, Ryan Burton is out and Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley has all-but confirmed Dan Houston will move back. Plus the big role change numbers which confirm KFC SuperCoach trade targets and big concerns
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After a slow start, there were issues, but now there is officially a problem with Dan Houston in KFC SuperCoach.
Power coach Ken Hinkley confirmed former skipper Ollie Wines will return, replacing the injured Ryan Burton, on Friday
And, without spelling it out specifically, Hinkley hinted it will be Houston, who started his career as a defender, going back to help out against the Dockers.
“It’s pretty logical, isn’t it, for us, we’re not going to expose someone who’s not got any great defensive awareness and Dan’s basically played his whole career bar this year as a defender,” he said as his side prepared to make the trip north.
“It’s a pretty simple move for us and I’m sure even Fremantle won’t be surprised by that.”
After an impressive finish to last season in the middle, and a standout summer on the track, the classy right-footer attended 13 of a possible 18 centre bounces in Round 1 and finished with 19 disposals and 79 points against the Suns.
But, with the injury to Burton and the Connor Rozee-Travis Boak duo firing on all cylinders in the midfield, Houston took a back seat in Showdown 48, taking his place at the restart of play just seven times against the Crows.
Houston will continue to be playmaker in defence for Port but his SuperCoach scoring is unlikely to improve back there. At least not enough to make him a top-six candidate, anyway.
With a Round 3 breakeven of 123, if the rest of your team is sound, it’s time to consider a trade.
If you don’t have Jeremy Howe, he’s year man, while Geelong star Tom Stewart should be in the mix if you’ve got the cash.
And, if you can, a dual-position trade to Lachie Neale is even better.
Making sure you have all the right rookies is important, but if trading Houston to ensure you don’t fall further behind in the race for total points means you overlook one this week, I’m all for it.
Especially with Stephen Hill ($190k DEF-FWD), Lachie Ash ($193k DEF-MID) and Tom Williamson ($146k DEF) set to be on the bubble next week after being named on Thursday.
Remember, there isn’t as many rounds to play catch-up with a full team this year.
NUMBERS REVEAL HIDDEN GEMS, BIG CONCERNS
Elsewhere, more midfield time has resulted in a big scoring spike for a number of young guns in 2020, presenting SuperCoaches with plenty of value ahead of Round 3.
Of course, role changes aren’t always positive and there’s some early evidence which suggests some of KFC SuperCoach’s biggest names could take a hit.
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THE GOOD
Connor Rozee (Port)
$471,600, Fwd
Scores: 125, 145
Ownership: 6% of teams
Centre bounce attendance (CBA) – 2019: 3.1%, 2020: 34.1%
Rozee posted five SuperCoach tons and led Port Adelaide’s goalkicking in an impressive debut season. But his influence – and scoring – is set to sky rocket with a move further up the ground this year.
The 20-year-old, who attended just 3.4 per cent last year, has been at 34 per cent of centre bounces in the opening two rounds.
And, as he showed in Showdown 48, Rozee doesn’t need to be there much more to have a big impact.
He was only the fourth-ranked Power player for centre bounce involvement against the Crows but he was No. 1 for clearances and contested possessions. Despite his impressive work at the contest, Rozee still finished with eight score involvements, two goal assists and one major of his own.
Christian Petracca (Melb)
$470,000, Fwd
Scores: 105, 126
Ownership: 16.4% of teams
CBA – 2019: 19.4%, 2020: 73.8%
The midfield breakout for Petracca is finally here. And for real this time. He was a star on-baller as a junior and, after a dominant summer, a fitter, leaner Petracca has been a big part of Melbourne’s midfield in the opening two rounds, attending 31 of a possible 42 centre bounces – a jump of 54 per cent on last year.
He ranks second for contested possessions, third for clearances and fourth for disposals at the Demons. And, more importantly, he still leads the club for score involvements.
Jy Simpkin (NM)
$423,400, Fwd-Mid
Scores: 119, 104
Ownership: 4.8% of teams
CBA – 2019: 37.1%, 2020: 69.8%
We saw glimpses last year, in particular back-to-back performances against the Magpies and Saints, which saw Simpkin tally a combined 66 disposals, 38 contested possessions and 20 clearances in Rounds 15 and 16.
As a result of his growing responsibility in the midfield, Simpkin attended 37. 1 per cent of centre bounces for North Melbourne in 2019. In the first two games this year, however, that figure is 69.9 per cent – second only to inside star Ben Cunnington.
And his numbers have gone to another level on the back of the increase in role. Simpkin ranks first at the club for score involvements and effective kicks, second for clearances and third for contested possessions and SuperCoach points.
Andrew McGrath (Ess)
$426,200, Mid
Scores: 113, 98
Ownership: 6.3% of teams
CBA – 2019: 4.5%, 2020: 68.1%
After plenty of hype over summer – again – the centre-bounce role for McGrath is finally a reality.
Only Dylan Shiel has attended more centre bounces for the Bombers in the first two matches and the No. 1 pick from the 2016 draft is making the most of it. McGrath ranks inside the top five at Essendon for disposals, contested possessions, clearances, inside 50s, score involvements, tackles and effective disposals.
His midfield teammates Shiel (129 points per game) and Zach Merrett (135) have done the bulk of SuperCoach scoring but McGrath should only get better from here.
Lachie Weller (GC)
$471,500, Def
Scores: 61, 100
Ownership: 1% of teams
CBA – 2019: 4.4%, 2020: 59.5%
After spending most of an injury-interrupted 2019 at halfback, Weller started in the midfield for the Suns’ final match of the year against the Giants. The impressive runner had an immediate impact, too, tallying 20 disposals, 11 tackles, nine contested possessions and a season-high 110 SuperCoach points.
And the role has continued this season.
Weller was quiet in Round 1 despite attending nine centre bounces against the Power but he was one of the Suns’ best in the win over the Eagles. The former Docker was there for 16 of the game’s 24 restarts and finished with 24 disposals, nine contested possessions, five clearances and 100 points. An under-the-radar top-six candidate in defence.
Quinton Narkle (Geel)
$397,700, Mid
Scores: 82, 71
Ownership: 3% of teams
CBA – 2019: 26.5%, 2020: 61.7%
It would be tough to jump on after his opening two scores, especially at the awkward price, but Narkle’s dazzling clearance work was on show at the Cattery last Thursday. And it’s something that should continue with the 22-year-old’s centre bounce attendance up 35 per cent on 2019.
Jack Steele (StK)
$547,100, Mid
Scores: 128, 137
Ownership: 4.8% of teams
There’s been no big change in Steele’s involvement at centre bounces for the Saints but, as slated over summer, Steele has been let loose by coach Brett Ratten in the midfield.
With no defensive role in the opening two rounds, the 24-year-old is averaging 22 disposals, 11 contested possessions, six score involvements, five marks and four tackles per game. Steele has also booted two goals himself and played a direct hand in three others to post scores of 128 and 137.
MORE SUPERCOACH ADVICE:
Doctor’s Orders: Four KFC SuperCoach mid-pricers under the microscope for Round 3
KFC SuperCoach Round 2 rage trades: Big guns in firing line after slow starts to 2020
KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom’s Round 2 review and Round 3 trade tips
SuperCoach Round 2 trade guide: Melbourne solves defensive rookie crisis
THE BAD
Rowan Marshall (StK)
$569,400, Ruck
Scores: 92, 70
Ownership: 7% of teams
CBA – 2019: 88%, 2020: 41%
“If they are going to play as a tandem, it’s going to diminish the worth of Marshall.”
They are the words of Champion Data’s Fantasy Freako, speaking on The Phantom’s Lair podcast this week. And it’s very hard to argue with him.
The Saints appear to be bucking the trend of playing one ruckman in shortened matches, with off-season recruit Paddy Ryder, again the main man in the middle against the Bulldogs. In his breakout season of 2019, Marshall took 88 per cent of centre bounces for St Kilda.
If you’re an owner, look away now. That percentage is down to 41 per cent across the opening two rounds.
Jack Macrae (WB)
$642,900, Mid
Scores: 103, 93
Ownership: 26% of teams
CBA – 2019: 69.7%, 2020: 48.9%
Why does Luke Beveridge hate SuperCoach? Last year it was Josh Dunkley and his early-season forward role, now it’s Jack Macrae on a wing. Given the Bulldogs’ abundance of ball-winners and the suspension of designated wingman Lachie Hunter, it makes sense. But Beveridge’s men were well beaten at the contest by St Kilda on Sunday.
Macrae who was the No. 2 centre bounce player for the Bulldogs – behind Marcus Bontempelli – last year, didn’t attend a single one in the opening half against the Saints. The left-footer was there nine times after halftime but his numbers didn’t recover.
After averaging 13 contested possessions per game since 2017, Macrae finished with just four to his name on Sunday. Yes, there is less game-time in 2020 but it was his lowest tally since Round 23, 2014.
Josh Kelly (GWS)
$614,800, Mid
Scores: 102, 89
Ownership: 14% of teams
CBA – 2019: 51.3%, 2020: 39.3%
In Round 1 it was Tom Green (16) and last week it was the combination of Jye Caldwell (7) and Callan Ward (5) taking centre bounce action away from the star Giant. Again, it makes some sense, given how damaging the classy left-footer is on the outside. But as he’s proven, Kelly is also clean and creative at the contest.
Against the Cats in March, Kelly attended 37 per cent of centre bounces and that figure increased by five on Sunday against North Melbourne. But, in a stat which should leave owners concerned, it’s well down on his 2019 percentage of 51.3.
Verdict: Marshall straight to Max Gawn or down to Pittonet appears the perfect solution to that problem with this week. But, while I’d be watching very closely – especially in a year with less rounds and more trades – you don’t need to panic trade Macrae just yet.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2020: Dan Houston to go back into defence as centre bounce numbers reveal hidden gems, trade targets and big concerns