Essendon 2017 SuperCoach preview: premium selections and who to avoid

IS Essendon a team full of SuperCoach bargains or one big trap? For the second straight year there are several question marks. We’ve got the best, and worst, buys this season.

Dyson Heppell is not yet at the peak of his powers. Picture: Picture: Hamish Blair

HOW many Bombers can you pick? Is Essendon a team full of SuperCoach bargains or one big trap?

For the second year in a row the Bombers present the biggest question marks heading into the AFL and SuperCoach season.

How will a year out of the game impact the 12 players banned for taking part in the infamous 2012 supplements program? The SuperCoach banker has taken a guess by discounting their prices by 10 per cent, presenting a host of tempting options.

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Who should we pick? And which other Bombers should be on our radar? Read on for the best buys, biggest bargains and the Dons to avoid in SuperCoach 2017.

PREMIUMS

Zach Merrett $606,400 mid

That’s what you call a breakout season. With the Bombers’ midfield decimated by the CAS verdict, Merrett stepped up in 2016 at age 20 to become one of the competition’s best goalkicking midfielders. His SuperCoach average jumped from 89 to 112, the equal-ninth highest in the comp. Merrett scored 90 points or more in 21 of his 22 matches and was brilliantly reliable; his highest score was 141 but he scored 120 or more 10 times. Of course, we haven’t mentioned that he did all that as a dual-position player most of picked as a forward. Next season he’s only eligible as a midfielder, which will slash his ownership rate. Will the return of Jobe Watson, Dyson Heppell and co eat into his scores? Or will he improve again — most players are better in their fourth season than their third — and prove a genius SuperCoach selection? We’re backing the latter.

Will the return of Essendon’s banned players help or hinder Zach Merrett’s scoring? Picture: Wayne Ludbey

Dyson Heppell $523,400 mid

Heppell hasn’t yet reached the absolute elite level, but he isn’t far off it. After averages of 106 and 105 in his past two completed seasons, you can be pretty confident of what you’ll get this year. Given he is priced at about a 96 average, that makes him great value for money.

Brent Stanton $496,100 mid

Stanton is consistently underrated by fans and as a SuperCoach selection. He played at least 20 games for nine seasons in a row (before last year) and posted an average above 90 in every one of those years, including 101 in 2015. Like Heppell, he’s priced to average about 10 fewer than that which presents obvious value, but where does the 30-year-old fit in John Worsfold’s plans?

David Zaharakis $473,100 mid

Zaka will already be crossed off the shopping lists of any players who recruited him last year after his hot start only to find they got on the rollercoaster at its highest point, and they were in for a sudden and steep decline. That had a lot to do with increased attention from taggers, and this is where the return of Heppell, Watson and co might make his life a whole lot easier. A gamble.

Jobe Watson $453,300 mid

At first glance that is a crazy price for a player who averaged 121 points a game in his dominant 2012 season. Watson’s output slipped since then but most of that can be attributed to the weight of the ongoing drama around the club. He finally has that monkey off his back (although handing back his Brownlow was tough) and will enter 2017 refreshed and likely without the burden of the captaincy. He’ll also be 32. What does all that mean? He’s a monty to perform above that price (he only has to average 80 to do that) — by how much is one of the SuperCoach mysteries of 2017.

Jobe Watson won’t be mentally burdened by the supplements saga. Picture: Michael Klein

Michael Hurley $464,200 def

Had his best AFL season in 2015 and his 95 average that year would have made him a top-10 defender in 2016, ahead of the likes of Jason Johannisen, Shaun Burgoyne and Josh Gibson. He’s priced to average 85. Food for thought.

Cale Hooker $444,900 def/fwd

See Hurley’s entry above, although Hooker would need to improve his 2015 average (90) to join the top bracket at either end. He’s likely to play more as a key forward, which probably takes him off the table.

MID-PRICE RISKS

Ben Howlett $375,800 fwd/mid

Has the 10 per cent discount but has consistently averaged in the 70s in recent seasons. Is he still part of the Bombers’ best 22? Not for us.

Travis Colyer $332,100 fwd

Even cheaper than his teammates (priced at about a 60 average) after injury cut short his 2015 season. He scored in the 90s a couple of times that year but that was a while ago now. Needs a strong pre-season to push into consideration.

ROOKIES

Andrew McGrath $211,800 def/mid

That price is a big turn-off for a first-year player but he went at No. 1 in the draft for a reason. McGrath averaged 145 SuperCoach points in the TAC Cup last year and 127 in the under-18 championships. Right in the frame for a Round 1 debut and likely to ease into AFL action across half-back, historically a great spot result for rookie SuperCoach scoring. Jacob Weitering was worth the cash last year.

David Myers $133,700 mid

By far the biggest bargain of the banned Bombers, with his price calculated on the two games he managed in 2015 — a 77 against Adelaide in Round 1 and a 1 against Sydney the next week when he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the first quarter — plus a 10 per cent discount. He averaged 86 over 17 games the year before and a similar result could make Myers one of the first cash cows to head to pasture in 2017.

David Myers’ price is very cheap. Picture: Getty Images

James Stewart $169,800 fwd

SuperCoach scoring isn’t really the former Giant’s thing, but he’s cheap and likely to get game time as a foil for Joe Daniher. An option if we are struggling to find bench players up forward.

Josh Begley $117,300 fwd

A draft bolter, Begley transformed in 2016 from a forward who kicked bags of goals to a powerful midfielder in the mould of Ollie Wines. He tips the scales at 96kg so won’t get pushed around, has already been dubbed “The Fridge” by teammates and Ben Howlett tagged him as a recruit to watch after an impressive start to the pre-season. One to keep an eye on.

NO-GO ZONE

Tom Bellchambers $305,100 ruck

Yes, that price is mighty tempting but do not be seduced. Bellchambers was one of the SuperCoach bombs of 2015, blowing up in the faces of his many coaches with a 62-point average. Now he’s competing with Matthew Leuenberger for the No. 1 ruck role.

Matthew Leuenberger $374,100 ruck

Leuey surprised many by making it through 2016 without breaking down but he never went close to his 102-point average way back in 2011. Now he’s got Bellchambers to compete with for the No. 1 ruck role.

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti $392,800 def

Don’t take this the wrong way — we love McDonald-Tipungwuti. He was one of the best footy and SuperCoach stories of 2016. But that figure next to his name is what is known in the caper as an “awkward price”. If you’re new to this, a handy tip is to never pick anyone priced from $300,000-$400,000 unless you know they will produce a huge scoring boost.

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti served us well last year but he’s an awkward price in 2017. Picture: Jason Edwards

TEAM PREVIEW

Who knows? The Bombers get 12 first-choice players back but the last time they were all available Essendon finished 15th. How much of that was due to the ongoing supplements saga? How will players perform after a year when they weren’t even allowed to step into AFL facilities and had to train on a school oval? These are all unknowns. Judging by the age profile of the list our best guess is they will be among the bunch of teams fighting for a spot at the bottom end of the top eight.